Thursday, October 13, 2011
It's Final
Having talked to (almost) everyone in the league, I've decided it's best to shut down the league this year.
The reasoning is this: most people are upset that Eric would be childish and liquidate his team to another player, whatever his reasoning is. It creates an imbalance that the rest of the league shouldn't have to deal with.
The logical thing would be to reverse the trade, which would require me to manually adjust rosters. This would piss off other league members and cause even more "power abuse" nonsense.
My only other option is to kick out the members of the league causing all the problems (and also the inactive player), but then we would have 8 players, and I'd rather not try to replace people, it just takes too much time and effort. Not to mention what to do with all the residual players.
I'm not sure if I'll do the league again next year, but I'll keep you all updated if I do.
------------------------------------------------------
Since we won't have a playoff or a remaining season, I'll go ahead and hand out my awards here.
Most Improved and Best Sport - Lewis. He was on track to be in the winners bracket for the first time, and took the game seriously. He took my taunts for two years and didn't do much complaining, and came back ready to win.
Best Start - This goes to John. He's the current leader, and deserves credit for picking some good players: namely, Wes Welker and Mike Tolbert.
Probable Winner - This one is hard, because I have to try and project based on future expectations. I've decided that Colby would probably win, based on a solid draft, good pickups, and good trading.
Best Newcomer - This goes to Brandt. He was willing to learn the game and try his best each week, and he was involved in the league.
And there we have it. Y'all enjoy the (real) football season, and hopefully we'll give this another try next year.
Wednesday, October 12, 2011
Future of the League
I sent this through email but some email accounts in the league don't get checked so I'll just post it here.
This is getting ridiculous.
I love fantasy football and this league has been great but there has been way too much complaining.
The trade between Alex and Eric was obviously one sided, since Eric's best RB is now Thomas Jones and he traded away Vincent Jackson, Ryan Mathews, Chris Johnson, and Frank Gore. For who, Eric Decker?
I would have said something about it but that would have led to more complaining. BJ's email made it clear what the general thought is in the league.
I'll give it until Sunday for somebody to give me a good reason to keep the league going. I really don't mind all that much because my school schedule has kept me from doing anything, even the blog consistently. I wasn't even able to find a time to go golfing the past month and a half because I've been so busy.
This isn't supposed to be a feel-bad-for-me email or anything. It's just legitimate: I don't have the time or motivation to try and keep any sort of order in the league. Even something as simple as swapping out an inactive players bye-week players gets criticized.
Let me know what you think.
This is getting ridiculous.
I love fantasy football and this league has been great but there has been way too much complaining.
The trade between Alex and Eric was obviously one sided, since Eric's best RB is now Thomas Jones and he traded away Vincent Jackson, Ryan Mathews, Chris Johnson, and Frank Gore. For who, Eric Decker?
I would have said something about it but that would have led to more complaining. BJ's email made it clear what the general thought is in the league.
I'll give it until Sunday for somebody to give me a good reason to keep the league going. I really don't mind all that much because my school schedule has kept me from doing anything, even the blog consistently. I wasn't even able to find a time to go golfing the past month and a half because I've been so busy.
This isn't supposed to be a feel-bad-for-me email or anything. It's just legitimate: I don't have the time or motivation to try and keep any sort of order in the league. Even something as simple as swapping out an inactive players bye-week players gets criticized.
Let me know what you think.
Sunday, October 9, 2011
What to do with Goodrich
Alright, unless Goodrich publicly makes an appeal to stay in the league here, we've got to replace him with someone. I've got his team on life support: I'll keep editing his roster so it's as competitive as possible. I'm not going to try to make a ton of moves or anything, so the bottom line is that we will need a replacement.
Post a comment here, email me, or post a comment on the ESPN front page on what you would like to do. All 11 of the remaining players are active, so we can't contract the league back to 10.
Post a comment here, email me, or post a comment on the ESPN front page on what you would like to do. All 11 of the remaining players are active, so we can't contract the league back to 10.
Colby's Statistical Analysis
This week was terrible for me, school-wise. I had tons of homework and projects, but the worst one was my programming class. I had to make a completely functional program that a bank could use to keep track of members, accounts, and be able to transact on those accounts. I started programming on Thursday at 3:30 in the afternoon and didn't finish until 4:00 - Friday morning. Fun. Moral of the story: I didn't have a lick of extra time this week. FYI Lewis: that trade would have been decent, except that I just need a TE for the upcoming bye week, so I wouldn't want to give up one of my good RB's for it. I already have Finley, and he'll be my starter unless he gets injured.
Anywho, I didn't do any recapping or predicting or anything, but luckily, Colby has done some statistical analysis this far into the season. Here we go...
More indicative of a team’s talent than their W-L record is points scored. The amount of wins a team has isn’t nearly as important as the probability a team has of winning on a week in, week out basis. To contrast that, the best judge of that team’s luck is their points allowed, since it is a crapshoot every week on how much the opposing team is going to score. Now, not to toot my own horn, but if you look at the expanded standings, me and Disco Inferno are the highest scoring teams (I think, I don’t have the league up right now), lending us the highest probability for a win each week. Granted, there will be the off week that Mike Wallace doesn’t catch a bomb or AP gets screwed by playing for the Vikings, but for the most part, points scored shows how successful a team will be. Michelle has allowed more points than the highest scoring team in the league, which means that the average team she has been up against is scoring better than the best team. Teamworlddominators, however, has the most freaking ridiculously low points allowed out of anyone! His points allowed is also much lower than any team’s scoring in the league (if I remember right). So, in contrast to michelle, teamworlddominators has played against teams that have scored, on average, lower than the crappiest team in the league. I think its safe to say, 8 times out of 10, Michelle would work john. However, she seems to have broken a mirror, opened an umbrella indoors, or walked under a ladder, because she is having HORRIBLE luck this year. John better keep hanging on to that rabbit’s foot he’s got (or freaking Wes Welker… ).
Anywho, I didn't do any recapping or predicting or anything, but luckily, Colby has done some statistical analysis this far into the season. Here we go...
More indicative of a team’s talent than their W-L record is points scored. The amount of wins a team has isn’t nearly as important as the probability a team has of winning on a week in, week out basis. To contrast that, the best judge of that team’s luck is their points allowed, since it is a crapshoot every week on how much the opposing team is going to score. Now, not to toot my own horn, but if you look at the expanded standings, me and Disco Inferno are the highest scoring teams (I think, I don’t have the league up right now), lending us the highest probability for a win each week. Granted, there will be the off week that Mike Wallace doesn’t catch a bomb or AP gets screwed by playing for the Vikings, but for the most part, points scored shows how successful a team will be. Michelle has allowed more points than the highest scoring team in the league, which means that the average team she has been up against is scoring better than the best team. Teamworlddominators, however, has the most freaking ridiculously low points allowed out of anyone! His points allowed is also much lower than any team’s scoring in the league (if I remember right). So, in contrast to michelle, teamworlddominators has played against teams that have scored, on average, lower than the crappiest team in the league. I think its safe to say, 8 times out of 10, Michelle would work john. However, she seems to have broken a mirror, opened an umbrella indoors, or walked under a ladder, because she is having HORRIBLE luck this year. John better keep hanging on to that rabbit’s foot he’s got (or freaking Wes Welker… ).
Total points scored in league (obviously points allowed is the same)= 4455
Average points scored (and allowed) per team = 371.25
Team breakdown:
Division 1
Agmen Alarius: PS- 372 PA- 310 (about average scoring, luckier than average)
Team Goodrich: PS- 338 PA- 366 (Lower than average scoring, about average luck)
Bare RAST: PS- 354 PA- 377 (Slight lower than average scoring, about average luck)
Team Stonewall: PS- 344 PA- 344 (Lower than average scoring, luckier than average)
Million Dollar Cowboys: PS- 368 PA- 393 (about average scoring, unluckier than average)
Team Goodrum: PS- 354 PA- 384 (slight lower than average scoring, slightly unluckier than average)
Division 2
TeamWorldDominators: PS- 344 PA- 265 (lower than average scoring, ridiculously lucky)
Brett Favre's Dirty Giblets: PS- 429 PA- 415 (Higher than average scoring, unluckier than average)
The Time is NOW: PS- 402 PA- 371 (above average scoring, average luck)
Disco Inferno: PS- 422 PA- 415 (higher than average scoring, unluckier than average)
Pretty in Pink: PS- 382 PA- 432 (slight higher than average scoring, ridiculously unlucky)
Air Raid: PS- 346 PA- 382 (lower than average scoring, slightly unlucky)
Team Rank in Points scored:
1. Brett Favre's Dirty Giblets
2. Disco Inferno
3. The Time is NOW
4. Pretty in Pink
5. Agmen Alarius
6. Million Dollar Cowboys
7. Bare RAST (tie)
7. Team Goodrum (tie)
9. Air Raid
10. Team Stonewall (tie)
10. TeamWorldDominators (tie)
12. Team Goodrich
Team rank by Points Allowed (luck)
1. TeamWorldDominators
2. Agmen Alarius
3. Team Stonewall
4. Team Goodrich
5. The Time is NOW
6. Bare RAST
7. Air Raid
8. Team Goodrum
9. Million Dollar Cowboys
10. Disco Inferno (tie)
10. Brett Favre's Dirty Giblets (tie)
12. Pretty in Pink
Alright, there are the numbers. I'll just add this at the end: The schedule is set up so that everyone plays everyone at least one time. That means that by the end of the season, everyone will have been tested against everyone's luck, skill, etc. Statistically speaking, this should limit the amount of luck (points against) a player has. On the other hand, the luck factor (points against) is actually the skill factor of another player (points scored). John has been lucky enough to go against some of the lower teams on the ladder. All that means is that the second half of the season he should have a tougher strength of schedule. This bodes really well for the teams that are showing with the least amount of luck.
Good luck in the bye weeks. I'm glad I get mine mostly over with here: look at my bench. So many good players on bye week... I even had to pick up Ben Tate, and pray that Foster get's hit by a mack truck on the way to Sunday's game. That was my best option this week, because I didn't have a single RB on my bench to replace with. Sad!
Wednesday, September 28, 2011
Week 3 Recap
The Cowboys are going to give me some kind of a panic disorder, or something. Nine straight games decided by three points or less? How much longer can we handle that? Needless to say, when the Cowboys won on Monday night, I had to do a little dance. It wasn't really an option. Anthony Spencer running down Rex Grossman looked just like a cheetah hunting a gazelle. The Cowboys need to lock up Rob Ryan, for sure, before he heads out to a head coaching gig. But enough of the Cowboys, let's get down to Hinckleyshouse business.
Agmen Alarius vs Team Stonewall
This game was more or less sickening. At one point I was convinced that neither Alex or I would get out of the 40's, and either of us could have won. I made the mistake of playing Dustin Keller over Jermichael Finley, and even though Keller almost had 90 yards receiving, Finley was a monster. Then, Phillip Rivers drops a bomb on me. And this is all without mentioning Beanie Freaking Wells. Sunday morning I take a quick look at him, and the quote says "I'm just fine, I don't expect any setbacks from preventing me from playing today." When I come back from church, I see that blasted O next to his name. Why would you say something like that you clown?! And since when does Eli Manning throw the ball to Victor Cruz more than Hakeem Nicks? Granted, Nicks had Asomough on him all day, but still.
Lucky for me Alex's side didn't do any better. The Eagles D looks terrible, Brandon Lloyd is back to being mediocre, and Thomas Jones is a decent RB, although too old, on a terrible team this year. The to two scorers in this entire game? Alex's kicker and my defense. Just heartbreaking.
Pretty in Pink vs The Time is NOW
Lewis continues his hot streak! One win could have been a fluke, but two in a row is hard to fake. Michelle got jipped a bit by Kenny Britt going down. That was a waiver wire pickup that could have been huge, but instead, Britt goes down for the entire season. And, like Jamaal Charles last week, he didn't have the good sense to get his owners some fantasy points before getting hurt. At least time your knee blowing out, buddy. Willis McGahee, on the other hand, has proven to be a great pickup. He might even get more carries that Knowshon, if he keeps running this well. Drew Brees is playing like he should, too. He's officially the number two QB in the league, which is about his average.
Lewis started out big with Gronkowski getting some big time TDs and yards. He might be Lewis' #1 scorer throughout the season so far (I'd have to check). When Vick went down, I thought for sure Lewis was going to lose this game. He only got him 8 points. Luckily, Bradshaw picked up the slack, and nobody on the team scored less than 8 points. Kudos to Lewis for sticking with Ben Tate, even when Foster came back (and then got reinjured). And who in the world is David Nelson?
Team Goodrum vs Brett Favre's Dirty Giblets
Eric made a strong case for his first win of the season, and almost pulled it off. Ryan Matthews finally gained some ground on Mike Tolbert, and put up 26 points. Unfortunately, Eric jumping up in the draft to get Antonio Gates isn't looking like a solid choice about now. That's two straight weeks of goose eggs. The other problem is that Frank Gore didn't run very well. At all. But on the positive side, the Ravens D looks fantastic.
Colby still won despite the Jets defense scoring -1 points. This is mostly due to his big RB advantage: LeSean McCoy and Adrian Peterson combined for 34 points, while Roddy White and Jimmy Graham combined for 30. Alex, how does that trade for Matt Forte feel now? The downside Colby has on his team, of course, is his QB quandary. I thought Bradford was going to have a breakout year. Boy am I glad that I only picked up one Rams player. Colby should have some big games this year, especially when Jackson gets healthy, but until he trades for a QB, he'll remain a question mark.
Disco Inferno vs Million Dollar Cowboys
Was Nate's 134 points showing last week a fluke? Nope! He comes right back in week 3 with 118. I knew Roethlisburger would pick it up quickly, and Ray Rice is a monster. I thought last year would be his breakout year, but I was off by a year. Mike Wallace continues to look like a top-tier receiver, and even Steve Johnson is big time. And who would have thought to gamble on the Cowboys D? Only Nate.
BJ had a good game, mostly due to Tom Brady being Tom Brady (FYI he threw 4 int's and still scored 20 points) and Addai figuring out how to run the ball again. By the way, that Colts game was actually really, really good. I thought it would be a waste of time Sunday night, so I tried to do homework while watching, and ended up getting no homework done. And Darren Sproles: did BJ get the upper hand in the Stephen Jackson trade? Sproles has 25, 11, and 18 points in three weeks. I guess the Saints know how to use Sproles way better than the Chargers did. Rough loss for BJ; looks like he needs a solid TE and a more reliable receiver.
Air Raid vs Team WorldDominators
Two years ago John rode the Chris Johnson express despite the rest of his team falling apart. This year? Wes Welker. Chalk up 34 more points for Welker, who is quickly becoming the #1 fantasy WR. Really, though, y'all need to go look at John's stat line. Flacco netted him 25 points, Welker 34, and Vinateiri 10. Other than that, nobody scored more than 3. Wowsers.
Lucky for John, Big Mac wasn't able to put up some solid numbers. His three RBs combined for only 12 points, with the biggest disappointment coming from Turner. Reggie Wayne suffered from the emergence of the Colt's running game, and only got a few throws his way. On the bright side, Vernon Davis played some solid ball, getting over 100 yards. If he got a touchdown or two with that total, that would have been huge. I expect he'll continue to do great; it was only a matter of time before Harbough discovered that his best receiver was actually a TE.
Team Goodrich vs Bare RAST
It was only a matter of time before the BManSC430 party came crashing down. Brandt has looked great with Fitzpatrick as his QB and MJD as his primary RB; unfortunately, the Packers realized why Ryan Grant was their #1 RB and not James Starks. Starks had a terrible day, getting Brandt -2 points. Brandts kicker had a big day, but other than that, not so much. Still, Brandt has a 2-1 record after three games, which is exactly where the Cowboys are.
Goodrich, though, had a big game. Mostly it was Darren McFadden showing what he's capable of. Where has this guy been? 171 yards and two TD's against the Jets? Wish I had known he wasted the last two seasons so he'd be healthy for this one. Calvin Johnson was Calvin Johnson. Did y'all see that catch that led to the game-winning FG? It was like the ball stuck to his hands as soon as it hit them. It didn't move at all. Wish I had size 4XL hands.
And there you have it, the Week 3 recap! Brandt went down in flames, but John continued his winning streak, and remains the only undefeated player. That might be difficult to maintain with Tolbert getting fewer touches, and I doubt Welker will get 34 points again this season. On the other end of the spectrum, the only players who have yet to win a game are Eric and Michelle. This is an interesting turn of events because Michelle has always made it to the winners bracket. We'll see if she can pull a Mcleary and rattle off a huge win streak in the middle of the season.
Remember, this is about the time that the right waiver wire pickup can get you into the winners bracket. There's already been a ton of activity, but that means players are being dropped left and right, and one man's trash is another man's treasure! I grabbed Torrey Smith, and I fully expect him to crash and burn, but if he consistently scores like he did last week, he's a gold mine.
FYI, I have to divulge a secret. When Tim Hightower scored on that little one yard pass into the end zone, I celebrated, because it got me the win over Alex. If the Cowboys had lost, though, I would have been ticked. Let's be glad for both results.
Agmen Alarius vs Team Stonewall
This game was more or less sickening. At one point I was convinced that neither Alex or I would get out of the 40's, and either of us could have won. I made the mistake of playing Dustin Keller over Jermichael Finley, and even though Keller almost had 90 yards receiving, Finley was a monster. Then, Phillip Rivers drops a bomb on me. And this is all without mentioning Beanie Freaking Wells. Sunday morning I take a quick look at him, and the quote says "I'm just fine, I don't expect any setbacks from preventing me from playing today." When I come back from church, I see that blasted O next to his name. Why would you say something like that you clown?! And since when does Eli Manning throw the ball to Victor Cruz more than Hakeem Nicks? Granted, Nicks had Asomough on him all day, but still.
Lucky for me Alex's side didn't do any better. The Eagles D looks terrible, Brandon Lloyd is back to being mediocre, and Thomas Jones is a decent RB, although too old, on a terrible team this year. The to two scorers in this entire game? Alex's kicker and my defense. Just heartbreaking.
Pretty in Pink vs The Time is NOW
Lewis continues his hot streak! One win could have been a fluke, but two in a row is hard to fake. Michelle got jipped a bit by Kenny Britt going down. That was a waiver wire pickup that could have been huge, but instead, Britt goes down for the entire season. And, like Jamaal Charles last week, he didn't have the good sense to get his owners some fantasy points before getting hurt. At least time your knee blowing out, buddy. Willis McGahee, on the other hand, has proven to be a great pickup. He might even get more carries that Knowshon, if he keeps running this well. Drew Brees is playing like he should, too. He's officially the number two QB in the league, which is about his average.
Lewis started out big with Gronkowski getting some big time TDs and yards. He might be Lewis' #1 scorer throughout the season so far (I'd have to check). When Vick went down, I thought for sure Lewis was going to lose this game. He only got him 8 points. Luckily, Bradshaw picked up the slack, and nobody on the team scored less than 8 points. Kudos to Lewis for sticking with Ben Tate, even when Foster came back (and then got reinjured). And who in the world is David Nelson?
Team Goodrum vs Brett Favre's Dirty Giblets
Eric made a strong case for his first win of the season, and almost pulled it off. Ryan Matthews finally gained some ground on Mike Tolbert, and put up 26 points. Unfortunately, Eric jumping up in the draft to get Antonio Gates isn't looking like a solid choice about now. That's two straight weeks of goose eggs. The other problem is that Frank Gore didn't run very well. At all. But on the positive side, the Ravens D looks fantastic.
Colby still won despite the Jets defense scoring -1 points. This is mostly due to his big RB advantage: LeSean McCoy and Adrian Peterson combined for 34 points, while Roddy White and Jimmy Graham combined for 30. Alex, how does that trade for Matt Forte feel now? The downside Colby has on his team, of course, is his QB quandary. I thought Bradford was going to have a breakout year. Boy am I glad that I only picked up one Rams player. Colby should have some big games this year, especially when Jackson gets healthy, but until he trades for a QB, he'll remain a question mark.
Disco Inferno vs Million Dollar Cowboys
Was Nate's 134 points showing last week a fluke? Nope! He comes right back in week 3 with 118. I knew Roethlisburger would pick it up quickly, and Ray Rice is a monster. I thought last year would be his breakout year, but I was off by a year. Mike Wallace continues to look like a top-tier receiver, and even Steve Johnson is big time. And who would have thought to gamble on the Cowboys D? Only Nate.
BJ had a good game, mostly due to Tom Brady being Tom Brady (FYI he threw 4 int's and still scored 20 points) and Addai figuring out how to run the ball again. By the way, that Colts game was actually really, really good. I thought it would be a waste of time Sunday night, so I tried to do homework while watching, and ended up getting no homework done. And Darren Sproles: did BJ get the upper hand in the Stephen Jackson trade? Sproles has 25, 11, and 18 points in three weeks. I guess the Saints know how to use Sproles way better than the Chargers did. Rough loss for BJ; looks like he needs a solid TE and a more reliable receiver.
Air Raid vs Team WorldDominators
Two years ago John rode the Chris Johnson express despite the rest of his team falling apart. This year? Wes Welker. Chalk up 34 more points for Welker, who is quickly becoming the #1 fantasy WR. Really, though, y'all need to go look at John's stat line. Flacco netted him 25 points, Welker 34, and Vinateiri 10. Other than that, nobody scored more than 3. Wowsers.
Lucky for John, Big Mac wasn't able to put up some solid numbers. His three RBs combined for only 12 points, with the biggest disappointment coming from Turner. Reggie Wayne suffered from the emergence of the Colt's running game, and only got a few throws his way. On the bright side, Vernon Davis played some solid ball, getting over 100 yards. If he got a touchdown or two with that total, that would have been huge. I expect he'll continue to do great; it was only a matter of time before Harbough discovered that his best receiver was actually a TE.
Team Goodrich vs Bare RAST
It was only a matter of time before the BManSC430 party came crashing down. Brandt has looked great with Fitzpatrick as his QB and MJD as his primary RB; unfortunately, the Packers realized why Ryan Grant was their #1 RB and not James Starks. Starks had a terrible day, getting Brandt -2 points. Brandts kicker had a big day, but other than that, not so much. Still, Brandt has a 2-1 record after three games, which is exactly where the Cowboys are.
Goodrich, though, had a big game. Mostly it was Darren McFadden showing what he's capable of. Where has this guy been? 171 yards and two TD's against the Jets? Wish I had known he wasted the last two seasons so he'd be healthy for this one. Calvin Johnson was Calvin Johnson. Did y'all see that catch that led to the game-winning FG? It was like the ball stuck to his hands as soon as it hit them. It didn't move at all. Wish I had size 4XL hands.
And there you have it, the Week 3 recap! Brandt went down in flames, but John continued his winning streak, and remains the only undefeated player. That might be difficult to maintain with Tolbert getting fewer touches, and I doubt Welker will get 34 points again this season. On the other end of the spectrum, the only players who have yet to win a game are Eric and Michelle. This is an interesting turn of events because Michelle has always made it to the winners bracket. We'll see if she can pull a Mcleary and rattle off a huge win streak in the middle of the season.
Remember, this is about the time that the right waiver wire pickup can get you into the winners bracket. There's already been a ton of activity, but that means players are being dropped left and right, and one man's trash is another man's treasure! I grabbed Torrey Smith, and I fully expect him to crash and burn, but if he consistently scores like he did last week, he's a gold mine.
FYI, I have to divulge a secret. When Tim Hightower scored on that little one yard pass into the end zone, I celebrated, because it got me the win over Alex. If the Cowboys had lost, though, I would have been ticked. Let's be glad for both results.
Tuesday, September 20, 2011
Week 2 Recap
If the Cowboys had not won in overtime on Sunday, I'm not sure what kind of mood I would be in. BYU got blown out, and while I'm not a big BYU homer, I dislike U of U. Then it became apparent I was going to lose to Lewis. For the first time in three years. But the fantasy football gods wanted to torture me first.
Agmen Alarius vs The Time is NOW
Why do I say torture? Because I got strung out until the bitter end. I still had Hakeem Nicks playing on Monday, but I thought for sure I was out, because Lewis had Vick, Bradshaw and Manningham. When Vick went out with only 11 points, that gave me a shot. If Hakeem Nicks had a good game and Bradshaw/Manningham didn't play well I could have won. And then Hakeem Nicks got a TD in the opening minutes of the game and I thought it could happen. But then he didn't do anything the rest of the game and Bradshaw had a decent running game.
We'll see how the rest of the season turns out. If past history is a proven indicator, I'll come back on top. Not necessarily on top of the entire league, but on top of Lewis. This means that he will have to make it into the winners bracket, because we don't play again this season. It wouldn't be fitting or proper just for me to just be in the winners bracket and him in the losers bracket (you know, the usual); no, the fantasy gods should arrange another meeting for us in the playoffs. I'll be waiting.
Team Stonewall vs Team Goodrich
What's worse than losing your fantasy game by one point? I'll tell you. Losing what could have been the #1 RB in the league this year. If he stayed healthy. But alas, that was not to be. Jamaal Charles went down with a season-ending knee injury, and he didn't even give Alex some good parting points in his final game. Peyton Hillis redeemed himself along with Tony Romo. Eric Decker was a good pickup. I almost picked him up, but I thought I wouldn't have put him in the game anyway, so I left him on the waivers. Turns out he would have won me my game if I put him in. But he couldn't do enough for Alex, who again, lost by one point.
Speaking of injury prone, Darren McFadden is proving to be a beast. Tack on 24 more points for him. Oh, and the Steelers defense, as it turns out, isn't terrible. Well actually they still could be. They shut out a football team. Turns out that football team was the Seahawks. But at least for this week, in retribution for Alex's 2 point win last week, they played good enough for Goodrich to skirt by.
Pretty in Pink vs Bare RAST
Michelle had a killer game this week. The only problem was that Brandt had a better one. You know what's sickening about Brandt scoring 128 points? His TE didn't score any, and Deangello Williams only scored three. Lucky for Brandt Miles Austin had his best game in two years and Jeremy Maclin had a career game. Did I mention the Lions D netted Brandt 23 points?
Michelle, on the other hand, had every player score in double digits except for one. She made a great decision to put Willis Mcgahee in; she noticed that Knowshon Moreno was going to be out and picked up his backup. Drew Brees is proving that he's still a scoring machine, and even Santana Moss jumped into the party. Most weeks, 111 points will give you the win. Sorry, tiger.
Million Dollar Cowboys vs Air Raid
BJ, realizing that he doesn't have any good, healthy RBs, made a knee-jerk reaction this week. He gave up Stephen Jackson, Roy Williams, and Eli Manning for Darren Sproles. Now this isn't all bad. Sproles could be in for some big games if he keeps running like he has. Roy Williams will be dumped onto the waivers will he will stay for the rest of the season. But if Stephen Jackson plays like he has the past 6 years, this is a terrible move for BJ. Terrible.
But he has made some smart moves. Freaking Tom Brady is a machine. And I should have had him. I was already picking him up about 10 spots ahead of his projection, and BJ goes and picks him up 5 spots before me. And now he goes and puts up another 27 points. That's more points than his RBs and WRs combined for this week. Of course, that didn't matter much in this game, because 27 points from Brady was more than almost all of Big Mac's team combined. Rodgers and Turner had their usual, followed by terrible, terrible play by Reggie Wayne, Mike Williams, Vernon Davis, the Falcons D, and Jay Feely. You gotta feel for Reggie Wayne, though. I think he realizes that he isn't going to win a single game this year.
Brett Favre's Dirty Giblets
This game was awesome to watch unfold. I was keeping an eye on it all Sunday. AP and LeSean McCoy are playing amazing, and combined for 50 points this week. On the other hand, I retract my previous statement thinking that Anquan Boldin had anything to offer. He's terrible. Julio Jones will be a big player, I would think. I watched the entire Falcons game, and they throw his way a ton. If he breaks for one of those plays, Colby is a heck of a lot closer to winning this game.
This was definitely Nate's breakout fantasy game. 134 points is amazing. Nate's been making all the right moves lately; taking the risk on Jahvid Best and Steve Johnson is pretty good. Mike Wallace and Larry Fitzgerald make a great WR group. I'm pretty sure I gave Nate a 9/10 on draft day, but I'd have to double check, and I'm too lazy for that. Anyway, Nate had a killer game, and kudos to him.
Team Goodrum vs Team WorldDominators
Looks like Eric is trying to make a tradition here. That tradition, of course, would be getting in last place. 0-2 doesn't look very good after a three win season last year. To his credit, though, who thought Chris Johnson, Antonio Gates, and the Ravens D would combine for 9 points. Jordy Nelson was his top scorer, and that's just sad.
John, on the other hand, is looking to rebound from his embarrassing I-didnt-swap-rosters moment last week. Steve Smith (CAR) had a big game, and I'm pretty close to putting in Cam Newton over Phillip Rivers. Adam Vinatieri had a monster week, and who would have thought that would happen. I didn't know the Colts were going to be able to get within field goal distance this year. Yes, they are that bad. Just like Eric.
And there is the week 2 recap! This week was full of surprises (and injuries). The top two players in the league (Brandt and John) happen to also be the two youngest. Michelle and Eric are the bottom two in the league. Michelle has the team to bounce back; I'm not so sure Eric does. FYI, Eric: Ask Lewis had to escape my ridicule on the blog. He's figured it out.
Agmen Alarius vs The Time is NOW
Why do I say torture? Because I got strung out until the bitter end. I still had Hakeem Nicks playing on Monday, but I thought for sure I was out, because Lewis had Vick, Bradshaw and Manningham. When Vick went out with only 11 points, that gave me a shot. If Hakeem Nicks had a good game and Bradshaw/Manningham didn't play well I could have won. And then Hakeem Nicks got a TD in the opening minutes of the game and I thought it could happen. But then he didn't do anything the rest of the game and Bradshaw had a decent running game.
We'll see how the rest of the season turns out. If past history is a proven indicator, I'll come back on top. Not necessarily on top of the entire league, but on top of Lewis. This means that he will have to make it into the winners bracket, because we don't play again this season. It wouldn't be fitting or proper just for me to just be in the winners bracket and him in the losers bracket (you know, the usual); no, the fantasy gods should arrange another meeting for us in the playoffs. I'll be waiting.
Team Stonewall vs Team Goodrich
What's worse than losing your fantasy game by one point? I'll tell you. Losing what could have been the #1 RB in the league this year. If he stayed healthy. But alas, that was not to be. Jamaal Charles went down with a season-ending knee injury, and he didn't even give Alex some good parting points in his final game. Peyton Hillis redeemed himself along with Tony Romo. Eric Decker was a good pickup. I almost picked him up, but I thought I wouldn't have put him in the game anyway, so I left him on the waivers. Turns out he would have won me my game if I put him in. But he couldn't do enough for Alex, who again, lost by one point.
Speaking of injury prone, Darren McFadden is proving to be a beast. Tack on 24 more points for him. Oh, and the Steelers defense, as it turns out, isn't terrible. Well actually they still could be. They shut out a football team. Turns out that football team was the Seahawks. But at least for this week, in retribution for Alex's 2 point win last week, they played good enough for Goodrich to skirt by.
Pretty in Pink vs Bare RAST
Michelle had a killer game this week. The only problem was that Brandt had a better one. You know what's sickening about Brandt scoring 128 points? His TE didn't score any, and Deangello Williams only scored three. Lucky for Brandt Miles Austin had his best game in two years and Jeremy Maclin had a career game. Did I mention the Lions D netted Brandt 23 points?
Michelle, on the other hand, had every player score in double digits except for one. She made a great decision to put Willis Mcgahee in; she noticed that Knowshon Moreno was going to be out and picked up his backup. Drew Brees is proving that he's still a scoring machine, and even Santana Moss jumped into the party. Most weeks, 111 points will give you the win. Sorry, tiger.
Million Dollar Cowboys vs Air Raid
BJ, realizing that he doesn't have any good, healthy RBs, made a knee-jerk reaction this week. He gave up Stephen Jackson, Roy Williams, and Eli Manning for Darren Sproles. Now this isn't all bad. Sproles could be in for some big games if he keeps running like he has. Roy Williams will be dumped onto the waivers will he will stay for the rest of the season. But if Stephen Jackson plays like he has the past 6 years, this is a terrible move for BJ. Terrible.
But he has made some smart moves. Freaking Tom Brady is a machine. And I should have had him. I was already picking him up about 10 spots ahead of his projection, and BJ goes and picks him up 5 spots before me. And now he goes and puts up another 27 points. That's more points than his RBs and WRs combined for this week. Of course, that didn't matter much in this game, because 27 points from Brady was more than almost all of Big Mac's team combined. Rodgers and Turner had their usual, followed by terrible, terrible play by Reggie Wayne, Mike Williams, Vernon Davis, the Falcons D, and Jay Feely. You gotta feel for Reggie Wayne, though. I think he realizes that he isn't going to win a single game this year.
Brett Favre's Dirty Giblets
This game was awesome to watch unfold. I was keeping an eye on it all Sunday. AP and LeSean McCoy are playing amazing, and combined for 50 points this week. On the other hand, I retract my previous statement thinking that Anquan Boldin had anything to offer. He's terrible. Julio Jones will be a big player, I would think. I watched the entire Falcons game, and they throw his way a ton. If he breaks for one of those plays, Colby is a heck of a lot closer to winning this game.
This was definitely Nate's breakout fantasy game. 134 points is amazing. Nate's been making all the right moves lately; taking the risk on Jahvid Best and Steve Johnson is pretty good. Mike Wallace and Larry Fitzgerald make a great WR group. I'm pretty sure I gave Nate a 9/10 on draft day, but I'd have to double check, and I'm too lazy for that. Anyway, Nate had a killer game, and kudos to him.
Team Goodrum vs Team WorldDominators
Looks like Eric is trying to make a tradition here. That tradition, of course, would be getting in last place. 0-2 doesn't look very good after a three win season last year. To his credit, though, who thought Chris Johnson, Antonio Gates, and the Ravens D would combine for 9 points. Jordy Nelson was his top scorer, and that's just sad.
John, on the other hand, is looking to rebound from his embarrassing I-didnt-swap-rosters moment last week. Steve Smith (CAR) had a big game, and I'm pretty close to putting in Cam Newton over Phillip Rivers. Adam Vinatieri had a monster week, and who would have thought that would happen. I didn't know the Colts were going to be able to get within field goal distance this year. Yes, they are that bad. Just like Eric.
And there is the week 2 recap! This week was full of surprises (and injuries). The top two players in the league (Brandt and John) happen to also be the two youngest. Michelle and Eric are the bottom two in the league. Michelle has the team to bounce back; I'm not so sure Eric does. FYI, Eric: Ask Lewis had to escape my ridicule on the blog. He's figured it out.
Thursday, September 15, 2011
Brandt's Idea
I think this would be absolutely amazingly awesome, but it would require participation by everyone for this to work. Go to this link.
http://www.jostens.com/apps/shop/ProductDetail.asp?CID=271703&PFID=2006072012440986752&PID=2006072012441136752&Q=0&isPPI=0&isRing=0&isHSRing=0
It's about $130, so $10 from each player would make it work. It would be awesome to have that be the trophy each year, and it would be customized with whatever the winner wants. Let me know what y'all think about it.
http://www.jostens.com/apps/shop/ProductDetail.asp?CID=271703&PFID=2006072012440986752&PID=2006072012441136752&Q=0&isPPI=0&isRing=0&isHSRing=0
It's about $130, so $10 from each player would make it work. It would be awesome to have that be the trophy each year, and it would be customized with whatever the winner wants. Let me know what y'all think about it.
Week 2 Predictions
I'm not sure if I'll be putting this in here every week, but at least for week 2, we'll have some predictions.
Agmen Alarius vs The Time is NOW
I'd be lying if I said I wasn't worried at this point. Three of my biggest playmakers (Hakeem Nicks, Dez Bryant, and Jermichael Finley) currently have the evil Q next to their name. While all three are predicted to play, none of them will be at 100%. I do have a lot of hope, however. First, I hope that LaGarrette Blount has another off week. I hope that Hakeem Nicks does play, just so Mario Manningham gets limited receptions. I hope that Arian Foster plays, so that Ben Tate ends up being a nobody again. I hope Owen Daniels continues his slow start to the season. As for Lewis' other players, I don't have much hope. Vick will dominate, Bradshaw will get his touches, and Andre Johnson will do his usual thing.
Prediction: Come on guys, this is Lewis. I was sent here to destroy him.
Team Stonewall vs Team Goodrich
Surprisingly, this is a tough one to call. I thought after the Goodrich-didnt-swap-out-his-roster fiasco, he would be "that team". "That team" is the team that everyone celebrates when they play against them and groans when someone else gets the easy win. This week though, Foster should be back, and Goodrich has a sturdy combo in Foster and McFadden. Calvin Johnson and Brandon Marshall (who suddenly has a surprisingly decent QB) aren't shabby, either. On the other hand, Alex has Jamaal Charles and Roddy White. The question, then, is do Peyton Hillis and Brandon Lloyd come out to play? Does Devery Henderson get a decent amount of receptions?
Prediction: Goodrich has more the edge in proven production. While Jonathan Stewart is a shaky starter, at best, I think Goodrich wins this one
Pretty in Pink vs Bare RAST
Who is doing these projections? Does anyone actually think that James Starks (RB, GB) is going to get 14 points? Willis McGahee and Santana Moss are both projected to get 13? Pierre Thomas will get 15? I'm just not buying it. What I do buy is Drew Brees, Greg Jennings, and Jason Witten for Michelle; MJD and Miles Austin for Brandt.
Prediction: Michelle pulls this one off
Million Dollar Cowboys vs Air Raid
The projection between these two teams are a little bit more in line. I'm not sure if I would say that Turner is going to net 19 points, but 15 isn't out of the question. BJ is having to deal with the injury bug a little bit, as Steven Jackson might not play and Santonio Holmes is a little beat up. Also, the QB position is a wash: who would you rather have, Tom Brady or Aaron Rodgers? These two QBs should finish 1-2 in fantasy scoring, if the rest of the season plays out like week 1.
Prediction: I think Big Mac gets the win here. He has a much more stable, proven RB corps and dependable WRs.
Brett Favre's Dirty Giblets vs Disco Inferno
Colby is hot off the start of the season, but can the dream continue? Nate has a week that could match Colby. First off, he has Ray Rice, and that washes out AP for Colby. Second, Jahvid Best. I've never been real high on this guy, but he is getting 20+ touches a game, and that means plenty of opportunities to get in the end zone. Colby gets the edge with LeSean McCoy, and Matt Forte could have another big game. Nate definitely gets the edge in WR, though. Fitz and Mike Wallace should each get a score, I would think.
Prediction: I give this game to Colby, but only because of the peripherals. His TE, D, and K positions should give him the edge, but I expect this game to be close.
Team WorldDominators vs Team Goodrum
First off, Mike Tolbert and Wes Welker are not going to carry John again. They will do good consistently, but they will not combine for 55 points again. And without Peyton Manning, Austin Collie is a non-factor. That gives John a pretty low starting point. Eric, on the other hand, is projected to have a monster of a game. None of the projections look out of the ordinary, either; maybe Hines Ward is projected a little high, or Jordy Nelson. Also, I'm not sure the Ravens defense, hot of their Steelers domination, are going to allow Chris Johnson to get 18 points.
Prediction: I'll give this game to Eric. John played his draft the right way if Peyton Manning were going to play. Without him, two of his highest picks are wasted. Can they give the MVP to a player that doesn't play?
There you have it, those are my predictions for this week and I'm sticking by them. That means that by the end of this week, if I'm right, Colby and I are the only undefeated teams. That also would put Lewis at 0-2.
Agmen Alarius vs The Time is NOW
I'd be lying if I said I wasn't worried at this point. Three of my biggest playmakers (Hakeem Nicks, Dez Bryant, and Jermichael Finley) currently have the evil Q next to their name. While all three are predicted to play, none of them will be at 100%. I do have a lot of hope, however. First, I hope that LaGarrette Blount has another off week. I hope that Hakeem Nicks does play, just so Mario Manningham gets limited receptions. I hope that Arian Foster plays, so that Ben Tate ends up being a nobody again. I hope Owen Daniels continues his slow start to the season. As for Lewis' other players, I don't have much hope. Vick will dominate, Bradshaw will get his touches, and Andre Johnson will do his usual thing.
Prediction: Come on guys, this is Lewis. I was sent here to destroy him.
Team Stonewall vs Team Goodrich
Surprisingly, this is a tough one to call. I thought after the Goodrich-didnt-swap-out-his-roster fiasco, he would be "that team". "That team" is the team that everyone celebrates when they play against them and groans when someone else gets the easy win. This week though, Foster should be back, and Goodrich has a sturdy combo in Foster and McFadden. Calvin Johnson and Brandon Marshall (who suddenly has a surprisingly decent QB) aren't shabby, either. On the other hand, Alex has Jamaal Charles and Roddy White. The question, then, is do Peyton Hillis and Brandon Lloyd come out to play? Does Devery Henderson get a decent amount of receptions?
Prediction: Goodrich has more the edge in proven production. While Jonathan Stewart is a shaky starter, at best, I think Goodrich wins this one
Pretty in Pink vs Bare RAST
Who is doing these projections? Does anyone actually think that James Starks (RB, GB) is going to get 14 points? Willis McGahee and Santana Moss are both projected to get 13? Pierre Thomas will get 15? I'm just not buying it. What I do buy is Drew Brees, Greg Jennings, and Jason Witten for Michelle; MJD and Miles Austin for Brandt.
Prediction: Michelle pulls this one off
Million Dollar Cowboys vs Air Raid
The projection between these two teams are a little bit more in line. I'm not sure if I would say that Turner is going to net 19 points, but 15 isn't out of the question. BJ is having to deal with the injury bug a little bit, as Steven Jackson might not play and Santonio Holmes is a little beat up. Also, the QB position is a wash: who would you rather have, Tom Brady or Aaron Rodgers? These two QBs should finish 1-2 in fantasy scoring, if the rest of the season plays out like week 1.
Prediction: I think Big Mac gets the win here. He has a much more stable, proven RB corps and dependable WRs.
Brett Favre's Dirty Giblets vs Disco Inferno
Colby is hot off the start of the season, but can the dream continue? Nate has a week that could match Colby. First off, he has Ray Rice, and that washes out AP for Colby. Second, Jahvid Best. I've never been real high on this guy, but he is getting 20+ touches a game, and that means plenty of opportunities to get in the end zone. Colby gets the edge with LeSean McCoy, and Matt Forte could have another big game. Nate definitely gets the edge in WR, though. Fitz and Mike Wallace should each get a score, I would think.
Prediction: I give this game to Colby, but only because of the peripherals. His TE, D, and K positions should give him the edge, but I expect this game to be close.
Team WorldDominators vs Team Goodrum
First off, Mike Tolbert and Wes Welker are not going to carry John again. They will do good consistently, but they will not combine for 55 points again. And without Peyton Manning, Austin Collie is a non-factor. That gives John a pretty low starting point. Eric, on the other hand, is projected to have a monster of a game. None of the projections look out of the ordinary, either; maybe Hines Ward is projected a little high, or Jordy Nelson. Also, I'm not sure the Ravens defense, hot of their Steelers domination, are going to allow Chris Johnson to get 18 points.
Prediction: I'll give this game to Eric. John played his draft the right way if Peyton Manning were going to play. Without him, two of his highest picks are wasted. Can they give the MVP to a player that doesn't play?
There you have it, those are my predictions for this week and I'm sticking by them. That means that by the end of this week, if I'm right, Colby and I are the only undefeated teams. That also would put Lewis at 0-2.
Wednesday, September 14, 2011
Week 1 Recap
Well, normally this will be posted on Tuesday evening, but I've been sick since last night... and I've slept through most of today, and I still feel sick. While I wait for the medicine to kick in, I might as well write the blog, before it turns into next week (in football terms).
Game 1: Agmen Alarius vs Pretty in Pink
When Colby and I made the trade for draft picks at the beginning of the year, he predicted his team would score some monster games while my team would consistently score good, but not great. That's almost exactly what happened in game 1. My team was consistent, in that nobody scored over 20 points, but nobody scored under 10, except the TE position.
Michelle had it rough; all of her RB's are considered starters, or at least number 1 on their respective depth charts, but none of them had a great week. Knowshon Moreno was supposed to benefit big time from John Fox, who is supposed to be a run-first type of coach. Ryan Grant should have better games ahead, when it's not a shoot out for Aaron Rodgers. While Greg Jennings and Jason Witten had their expected production, Dwayne Bowe only caught one pass.
On the other hand, my team's RB corps each scored a TD. If not for Felix Jones' TD, he would have had a so-so outting, but I got lucky there. Beanie Wells and Tim Hightower both look to be great picks if they have the number of carries throughout the year that they had in this game. Hakeem Nicks and Dez Bryant both had great games, but now I have to worry about their durability. They are both listed as questionable this week, although I imagine that they will both play. I really don't want to have to put Percy Harvin in the lineup until McNabb proves he can throw the ball.
Game 2: The Time in NOW vs Team Stonewall
Alex's two highest scorers this week were his defense and his kicker. Lewis had five players score sub-double digits. This was a rough start for both Alex and Lewis, but it sure made for an interesting game. This one was the closest game of the week.
Lewis started hot with Vick scoring 20. The funny thing about Vick scoring 20 is that he only threw for 187 yards. I suspect he will continue to put up high, high numbers, if he can score 20 on that low of yards. Blount came up as a big disappointment, and we'll see where this goes. I had Blount pretty high on my draft board, so if he ends up second on his depth chart, Lewis will have saved me from a wasted pick. On the other hand, I still expect him to come back strong. The hard part for Lewis is that he doesn't have too many bench players to plug in just yet, although he has made some swaps. I figure Lewis' team is strong enough that he will come back (unlike last year); hopefully it's not too early, since I play him this week.
Alex's team had an off week, too. Jamaal Charles and Peyton Hillis should each be scoring double digits every week. Also, the trade went through, giving Alex some quality at WR. No more trying to depend on Braylon Edwards and Devin Hester each week. It does look like he's going to struggle with TE; I doubt the Bills TE is going to score 2 TD each week, and Marcedes Lewis is already battling the injury bug.
This game was awesome for two reasons: it came down to the wire, and if Sebastian Janikowski doesn't hit that record tying 63 yard FG, Alex doesn't win. But he does, and Alex pulls off the win. The Time is NOW is looking like the Cowboys. But we still have hope!
Team Goodrum vs Bare RAST
Bandt got lucky in his fantasy football debut. No, I'm not talking about his players, I'm talking about his opponent. He pulls the short straw, or should I saw the short bus, by getting Eric on week 1. This is sort of like a handicap in golf, I suppose. Remember, Eric got last place last year. Brandt needed it, too: somehow he pulled off the win despite scoring only 78 points.
Eric was saved in the purest sense of the word by playing the Ravens defense. If they didn't score 26 points, Eric is staring a 40 point week in the face. Looking at that lineup, though, that shouldn't be the norm. Chris Johnson, Frank Gore, and Shonn Green are lead-men; they should be scoring double digits. Not this week, however. Frank Gore led that entire pack with 6 points. Also, Vincent Jackson and Antonio Gates should be getting a TD each game, but they got punked this week by Mike Tolbert, who had a monster game and scored all of the Chargers TD's.
Brandt got lucky with Kenny Britt; scratch that 80 yard TD and he only gets 11 points, and Brandt doesn't win this game. MJD, on the other hand, had 15 points in a game that they were limiting his touches. That bodes well for the most injury prone top-10 pick. Maybe he will have a good year after all. Maclin played about like I expected him to play. Remember, Maclin's "illness" is eerily similar to what I got a couple years ago: mono comes and goes, but mysterious physical symptoms keep persisting. I still have to deal with that, and it's been 2 1/2 years.
Brett Favre's Dirty Giblets vs Million Dollar Cowboys
This was BJ's Hinckleys House debut, and I have to say, he didn't quite disappoint. He nearly put up 100 points. Now, 1/3 of those points come from Tom Brady, but that was all BJ: He picked up Brady about 10 picks before he was projected to go. This drove me crazy because Brady was supposed to be my #1 pick. But it goes to show that at least BJ has some football predictive senses.
BJ got the short end of the stick with Stephen Jackson, I think. He is 29 years old and that is exactly when most RB's start to decline; Jackson is different from most, however, and this is just a bruised quad, not a mysterious drop in YPC. Addai played about as well as you would expect for the Colts this year, and LT had more points than he will probably have most of the year. Also, who expected the Giants D to give up 28 points against the Redskins?
BJ's biggest problem this week, however, wasn't his personnel choices. It was his opponent. Colby had great game despite Darren Sproles sitting on the bench. While Bradford and AP didn't produce, McCoy did like I expected him to (He was going to be my #1 pick if I didn't trade) and Forte exceeded expectations. Speaking of exceeding expectations, Anquan Boldin broke double digits: while I don't expect that to be the norm, at least it says he has a potential upside, right? Colby is projected to have a big week next week, as well, so watch out Nate!
Disco Inferno vs Air Raid
When Ray Rice scores 27 points and five of your players are in double digits, you would expect to win your game, right? Not quite. Reggie Wayne scores Indy's only TD and breaks 100 yards, Aaron Rodgers does his Aaron Rodgers thing, and Cedric Benson run for 120 yards and a TD to hand Mcleary the win.
Nate has to be disappointed with the loss but hopeful for the rest of the season. For one thing, Roethlisburger only netted him 5 points. That's about 10 points below his average and expected production. The Steelers won't be having another 5+ turnover game anytime soon, I would think. Also, Fitz was limited and his kicker only scored 1 point.
Big Mac has to be excited for the win but also excited for the season. For one thing, Michael Turner looks like he'll have another productive season, and if Cedric Benson can keep running like that, he will be considered a steal (Cant quite remember what round he went in). I figured Mike Williams was going to be a good WR this year, and I had him pretty high on my draft board, but Big Mac beat me to him, and more power to him. Also, Vernon Davis only had 4 points, and that shouldn't be considered normal; I would expect him to get way more receptions as the season goes on.
Team WorldDominators vs Team Goodrich
Well, this was the down matchup for this week. John might be a bit excused: His part of California has had power outages, and to his credit, John thought he had made his swaps already. But man up! Because you won your first game, and it turns out that although you lost Peyton Manning, you might have found some gems.
For on thing, while Tolbert isn't going to get 3 TD's in a game very often, he easily outproduced Ryan Matthews, and quite convincingly. I had Tolbert ranked way higher than Matthews. Rashard Mendenhall suffered from the Steelers terrible, terrible outing and Austin Collie should get more receptions as he and Kerry Collins get more comfortable. But here we go again with Wes Welker: 28 points, 160 yards and a pair of TDs. The Brady-Welker connection looks to be in full swing again. Fix your kicker, fix your QB and you should be a threat in the league.
Goodrich, on the other hand, needs to WAKE UP! Not switching out Foster cost you the game! Goodrich can't really be blamed for the Steelers debacle, as nobody in the league would have switched them out prior to this game.
While I've got both of these teams in the same week, it should be noted that a lack of attention each week might cost you your team. We are currently at a 12-team format, but if the not-roster-rotating becomes a problem, we can consider changing it back to a 10-team format or swapping out some owners. *ahem*
Well, there you have it. Half of the league has won 100% of their games while half of the league has lost 100% of their games. Newcomers Brandt and BJ have proven that they have some game. One of the big games coming up next week: I play against Lewis, and this isn't the guaranteed win it would have been last year. Am I nervous? Of course not.
Game 1: Agmen Alarius vs Pretty in Pink
When Colby and I made the trade for draft picks at the beginning of the year, he predicted his team would score some monster games while my team would consistently score good, but not great. That's almost exactly what happened in game 1. My team was consistent, in that nobody scored over 20 points, but nobody scored under 10, except the TE position.
Michelle had it rough; all of her RB's are considered starters, or at least number 1 on their respective depth charts, but none of them had a great week. Knowshon Moreno was supposed to benefit big time from John Fox, who is supposed to be a run-first type of coach. Ryan Grant should have better games ahead, when it's not a shoot out for Aaron Rodgers. While Greg Jennings and Jason Witten had their expected production, Dwayne Bowe only caught one pass.
On the other hand, my team's RB corps each scored a TD. If not for Felix Jones' TD, he would have had a so-so outting, but I got lucky there. Beanie Wells and Tim Hightower both look to be great picks if they have the number of carries throughout the year that they had in this game. Hakeem Nicks and Dez Bryant both had great games, but now I have to worry about their durability. They are both listed as questionable this week, although I imagine that they will both play. I really don't want to have to put Percy Harvin in the lineup until McNabb proves he can throw the ball.
Game 2: The Time in NOW vs Team Stonewall
Alex's two highest scorers this week were his defense and his kicker. Lewis had five players score sub-double digits. This was a rough start for both Alex and Lewis, but it sure made for an interesting game. This one was the closest game of the week.
Lewis started hot with Vick scoring 20. The funny thing about Vick scoring 20 is that he only threw for 187 yards. I suspect he will continue to put up high, high numbers, if he can score 20 on that low of yards. Blount came up as a big disappointment, and we'll see where this goes. I had Blount pretty high on my draft board, so if he ends up second on his depth chart, Lewis will have saved me from a wasted pick. On the other hand, I still expect him to come back strong. The hard part for Lewis is that he doesn't have too many bench players to plug in just yet, although he has made some swaps. I figure Lewis' team is strong enough that he will come back (unlike last year); hopefully it's not too early, since I play him this week.
Alex's team had an off week, too. Jamaal Charles and Peyton Hillis should each be scoring double digits every week. Also, the trade went through, giving Alex some quality at WR. No more trying to depend on Braylon Edwards and Devin Hester each week. It does look like he's going to struggle with TE; I doubt the Bills TE is going to score 2 TD each week, and Marcedes Lewis is already battling the injury bug.
This game was awesome for two reasons: it came down to the wire, and if Sebastian Janikowski doesn't hit that record tying 63 yard FG, Alex doesn't win. But he does, and Alex pulls off the win. The Time is NOW is looking like the Cowboys. But we still have hope!
Team Goodrum vs Bare RAST
Bandt got lucky in his fantasy football debut. No, I'm not talking about his players, I'm talking about his opponent. He pulls the short straw, or should I saw the short bus, by getting Eric on week 1. This is sort of like a handicap in golf, I suppose. Remember, Eric got last place last year. Brandt needed it, too: somehow he pulled off the win despite scoring only 78 points.
Eric was saved in the purest sense of the word by playing the Ravens defense. If they didn't score 26 points, Eric is staring a 40 point week in the face. Looking at that lineup, though, that shouldn't be the norm. Chris Johnson, Frank Gore, and Shonn Green are lead-men; they should be scoring double digits. Not this week, however. Frank Gore led that entire pack with 6 points. Also, Vincent Jackson and Antonio Gates should be getting a TD each game, but they got punked this week by Mike Tolbert, who had a monster game and scored all of the Chargers TD's.
Brandt got lucky with Kenny Britt; scratch that 80 yard TD and he only gets 11 points, and Brandt doesn't win this game. MJD, on the other hand, had 15 points in a game that they were limiting his touches. That bodes well for the most injury prone top-10 pick. Maybe he will have a good year after all. Maclin played about like I expected him to play. Remember, Maclin's "illness" is eerily similar to what I got a couple years ago: mono comes and goes, but mysterious physical symptoms keep persisting. I still have to deal with that, and it's been 2 1/2 years.
Brett Favre's Dirty Giblets vs Million Dollar Cowboys
This was BJ's Hinckleys House debut, and I have to say, he didn't quite disappoint. He nearly put up 100 points. Now, 1/3 of those points come from Tom Brady, but that was all BJ: He picked up Brady about 10 picks before he was projected to go. This drove me crazy because Brady was supposed to be my #1 pick. But it goes to show that at least BJ has some football predictive senses.
BJ got the short end of the stick with Stephen Jackson, I think. He is 29 years old and that is exactly when most RB's start to decline; Jackson is different from most, however, and this is just a bruised quad, not a mysterious drop in YPC. Addai played about as well as you would expect for the Colts this year, and LT had more points than he will probably have most of the year. Also, who expected the Giants D to give up 28 points against the Redskins?
BJ's biggest problem this week, however, wasn't his personnel choices. It was his opponent. Colby had great game despite Darren Sproles sitting on the bench. While Bradford and AP didn't produce, McCoy did like I expected him to (He was going to be my #1 pick if I didn't trade) and Forte exceeded expectations. Speaking of exceeding expectations, Anquan Boldin broke double digits: while I don't expect that to be the norm, at least it says he has a potential upside, right? Colby is projected to have a big week next week, as well, so watch out Nate!
Disco Inferno vs Air Raid
When Ray Rice scores 27 points and five of your players are in double digits, you would expect to win your game, right? Not quite. Reggie Wayne scores Indy's only TD and breaks 100 yards, Aaron Rodgers does his Aaron Rodgers thing, and Cedric Benson run for 120 yards and a TD to hand Mcleary the win.
Nate has to be disappointed with the loss but hopeful for the rest of the season. For one thing, Roethlisburger only netted him 5 points. That's about 10 points below his average and expected production. The Steelers won't be having another 5+ turnover game anytime soon, I would think. Also, Fitz was limited and his kicker only scored 1 point.
Big Mac has to be excited for the win but also excited for the season. For one thing, Michael Turner looks like he'll have another productive season, and if Cedric Benson can keep running like that, he will be considered a steal (Cant quite remember what round he went in). I figured Mike Williams was going to be a good WR this year, and I had him pretty high on my draft board, but Big Mac beat me to him, and more power to him. Also, Vernon Davis only had 4 points, and that shouldn't be considered normal; I would expect him to get way more receptions as the season goes on.
Team WorldDominators vs Team Goodrich
Well, this was the down matchup for this week. John might be a bit excused: His part of California has had power outages, and to his credit, John thought he had made his swaps already. But man up! Because you won your first game, and it turns out that although you lost Peyton Manning, you might have found some gems.
For on thing, while Tolbert isn't going to get 3 TD's in a game very often, he easily outproduced Ryan Matthews, and quite convincingly. I had Tolbert ranked way higher than Matthews. Rashard Mendenhall suffered from the Steelers terrible, terrible outing and Austin Collie should get more receptions as he and Kerry Collins get more comfortable. But here we go again with Wes Welker: 28 points, 160 yards and a pair of TDs. The Brady-Welker connection looks to be in full swing again. Fix your kicker, fix your QB and you should be a threat in the league.
Goodrich, on the other hand, needs to WAKE UP! Not switching out Foster cost you the game! Goodrich can't really be blamed for the Steelers debacle, as nobody in the league would have switched them out prior to this game.
While I've got both of these teams in the same week, it should be noted that a lack of attention each week might cost you your team. We are currently at a 12-team format, but if the not-roster-rotating becomes a problem, we can consider changing it back to a 10-team format or swapping out some owners. *ahem*
Well, there you have it. Half of the league has won 100% of their games while half of the league has lost 100% of their games. Newcomers Brandt and BJ have proven that they have some game. One of the big games coming up next week: I play against Lewis, and this isn't the guaranteed win it would have been last year. Am I nervous? Of course not.
Monday, September 5, 2011
Draft Recap and Analysis
As Alex as reminded me several times, I'm not allowed to slack on the blog, and this is one major portion of the blog! I'll be going through each team's draft, and give it a grade 1-10. Of course this is all my speculation, but this is my blog, so that's why I get to do it. I'll start with myself.
Agmen Alarius
We will have to see if my gamble paid off. A few days before the draft, I traded my first round pick (#7 overall) to Colby for his second and fourth round picks. I also threw in my ninth round pick. This made it so that I didn't pick until #18 overall, but I picked 18th, 24th, 31st, 42nd, 48th, and 55th. That's a healthy number of picks for quality players. I wasn't exactly satisfied with what would have been my first round pick (probably LeSean McCoy), so I felt better about the trade. My initial plan was thrown off by somebody picking up Tom Brady too early, along with Peyton Hillis, but I still felt I did pretty good.
Key players: My tactic came up exactly how I expected: nobody's name sticks out too far, but they are all solid players. my RB's are unproven but are the lead dogs on their teams. My WR's are the same way, but Percy Harvin may be questionable with McNabb throwing to him, and it is yet to be seen how the Dez Bryant / Miles Austin distribution will play out. Phillip Rivers, although I do not like him as a player, is consistently a top-10 QB, and I have Kyle Orton as his backup; consistent production, but no flare. I waited until the last two rounds to pick up my defense and kicker; while those positions might suffer a bit, I feel great about my bench potential. Tim Hightower could easily be switched out with any of my starting RB's and I wouldn't skip a beat. Ochocinco and Sims-Walker could both be #1 receivers, depending on how the season plays out. If Hightower goes down, I have the only Redskins replacement in Roy Helu.
Analysis: I think the trade worked great for me. This team has little risk, and if injuries arise, I can quickly replace their production with someone from the bench. I don't think I'll have high scoring games often, but I also don't see myself having low scoring games, either. If I could describe my draft and season, I would say this: consistent.
Grade: 9 out of 10
Pretty in Pink
Michelle procrastinated her draft day study until a few hours beforehand, and then didn't write down her game plan. She was given the last pick, which is a blessing and a curse. You get to pick two players back to back, but them you have to wait 24 turns before you pick again. Her initial two picks were going to be a solid QB and WR. When her first turn came up, she was going to pick Vick, but everyone in the war room questioning his durability scared her off. She stuck to the plan, though, and get Brees and Greg Jennings, and overall had a solid day.
Key players: Michelle has solid WRs in Dwayne Bowe and Greg Jennings, and a solid QB in Drew Brees. Her RB corps is questionable. Knowshon Moreno should benefit from a more consistent run oriented offense, but Pierre Thomas will be fighting the RB-by-committee syndrome in NO. Witten will be a solid TE as always, and I was surprised he was still available at the end of the fifth round. Her bench is so-so; in order for some of the players to be productive (Willis McGahee, James Jones, Malcolm Floyd) something has to happen in the depth chart in front of them. Her only real potential sleeper is the player I wanted but couldn't get because I already had 6 WRs: Danny Amendola. He could have a monster, Wes Welker year with Josh McDaniels at the offensive helm in St. Louis.
Grade: 7 out of 10. Would be higher if the RB position was a little more stable, along with some instant-production bench players
Team Stonewall
Alex was pitter-pattering about showing up at the draft party. Luckily, he put his manhood on and came over. He was prepared with a plan (everyone was way more prepared this season, I noticed), and sweated at every pick. Literally, I think I saw some pit stains going on over there. This draft was pretty intense, though. Those of you out of town missed a tense atmosphere over here. Alex missed out on Tom Brady for the first time in his Hinckley's House career, much to he chagrin (curse you BJ). He had the #4 pick though, so at least he would be getting one solid, elite RB.
Key players: Jamaal Charles is slated to have a huge year, and if he does, Alex will benefit big time. On the other hand, opposing defenses could start stacking the box if Cassel doesn't play well. Peyton Hillis was another big time RB pickup for Alex; everyone was questioning him because of the ESPN analysis "He seemed to slow down big time by the end of the year", but nobody was picking up on the fact that he had BROKEN RIBS. That's gotta throw some hesitation into a RB's game. Mark Ingram should come out as the lead dog in NO, but he is a rookie, and there will be the obvious "can he block / can he keep from fumbling" questions. Romo was a great pickup because he was #28. The big question marks on Alex's team this year are his WR. Brandon Lloyd was #1 last year, but will he be the same with Josh McDaniels passing on 75% of their plays? Will Kyle Orton be as consistent this year as last year? Devin Hester is the same way: it all depends on his QB, and everyone here knows how I feel about Jay Cutler. What makes the WR position even more difficult for Alex is that he doesn't have solid backups on the bench. Plaxico Burress is an obvious question mark with good potential (and a good showing in the preseason), but Braylon Edwards has done very little since his pro-bowl year a few years back, and should do even worse with Alex Smith throwing to him. Lee Evans is questionable as well, but if he gets his head screwed on right, has some potential with Joe Flacco throwing to him. Alex also picked up what could end up the #1 defense in the league this year, if all the big-names mesh well.
Grade: 8 out of 10. Alex could pull out some great scoring weeks, but at the same time, could run some low ones of his big names don't produce.
The Time is NOW
This year's most improved preseason player award goes to Lewis. Not only did he do his due diligence for his first few rounds, he had solid backups and sleepers planned out. He even busted out a fantasy football draft advisor magazine. I was quite impressed with the level of preparation. As I've said many times before, Lewis knows the only way to escape my taunting is to prove it on the playing field. This year he just might rise above the ranks of "dregs".
Key players: I can't believe Vick fell all the way to #15. If he was available at 18, I would have picked him up in a heartbeat. Lewis was questionable about picking him up because of Lewis' track record with injuries; I still contend that Vick's upside far outweighs his risk. Vick wasn't even Lewis' first pick, that honor goes to Andre Johnson. Johnson is the Adrian Peterson of WRs; he's usually top five, but not always #1. His RB corps could easily have been mine, since they were players ranked highly on my draft board. I especially wanted Blount this year, and Bradshaw would have been a great pick. Mario Manningham kept showing up last year, but he is a #2 receiver, and we'll see if his production remains stable. TE, defense, and kicker were all solid picks, at the sacrifice of better backups. Lewis could have used a better backup QB (Stafford?). If one of his starting WRs goes down, he'll have to search the waiver wires for a replacement unless Bess or Moore shows up. I did want Ronnie Brown, however; if McCoy goes down in Philly, Brown is a great replacement.
Grade: 7 out of 10. Vick was the winner for Lewis, but he needs backups that can be instant production.
Air Raid
Big Mac mans up every year for the draft. Last year was when he drafted during his Grandma's birthday party. This year he drafted at 10:00 at night without ever raising a fuss. This year Mcleary was really looking for a solid draft; last years draft was a bit lacking, and the start to the season was incredibly slow. He picked up, as I've documented before, but it would be better to play from ahead the rest of the season instead of trying to catch up.
Key players: Rodgers was Mcleary's #1 pick, and that should pan out as a solid one. Rodgers has been solid for a while now; if I were Big Mac, I would cringe just a little bit every time he scrambles for that first down. He's not exactly made to get hit. His RB corps is middle-of-the-road; Turner could be great, but he never seems to live completely up to his potential. Cedric Benson just got out of jail, and Lynch has always been a short yardage type. I do like his combo of WR and TE, however. Reggie Wayne will have a great year once Manning gets back on the field, and Mike Williams is an emerging all star out of TB. Vernon Davis could easily be the #1 receiver in SF this year. Big Mac also has a bench that has potential. Michael Bush could be plugged in at any time, and if McFadden goes the injury-prone route again, will be a great fantasy starter. Woodhead is the same way; he already gets a decent number of carries, and if anything happens to Green-Ellis, he'll be even more valuable. Donald Driver and Mike Williams (the Seattle one) won't put up big numbers but can easily be plugged in for a bye-week or during an injury.
Grade: 8 out of 10. While RB may be a question mark, it's not a big one, and Big Mac has a good bench to choose from when injuries rear up.
Brett Favre's Dirty Giblets
Massive Kudos to Colby for his team picture. If you haven't seen it yet, check it out. Matches the name very, very well. Colby was the other side of my trade this year. He gave up his second and fourth round picks, but got two top-10 picks. Don't forget he also had the #1 overall pick. You can always count on Colby to do his pre-draft homework, and he's got an eye for breakout players. But he also knows how to play it safe, which is what he did this year.
Key players: By playing it safe, I mean he picked Adrian Peterson instead of Arian Foster. Foster, IF he repeats, will be a monster this year. AP, however, has shown production every year. The only risk is that he has been overworked, but there haven't been many signs of that yet. With #7 he could have picked up Vick, who he thought pretty hard about, but stuck again with the safe road and picked LeSean McCoy. Colby easily has the best RB stable in the league. That came with a sacrifice, though: his starting QB is Sam Bradford. While I think Bradford will have a breakout year, and he was the QB I wanted as a backup, he hasn't proven it yet. That could be a disaster for Colby, but I doubt it. Let's not forget Colby also picked up Matt Forte in the third round; that means all three of Colby's RB's were top-ten last year. Breaking away from Colby's stellar RB group, lets look at the less-than-stellar WR group. Marques Colston is unpredictable because Brees spreads the ball so well. Since I don't have any words for Anquan Boldin, I'll just use Colby's immediately following the pick: "I immediately regret that decision". Luckily, he backed up the weak WR corps with some potential on the bench: Jacoby Ford and Julio Jones. Both have a lot to prove before they are fantasy starters, but both have the immediate potential to be there. In other words, there doesn't need to be an injury before they can contribute. Solid picks at defense and kicker.
Grade: 8 out of 10. I like Colby's strategy, and I think it will play out, but the only problem area is QB. If Bradford doesn't shine, Colby has to lean on Colt McCoy as a backup. What could have been a hole at WR was plugged by a decent bench of WRs.
Disco Inferno
While Nate exposed his rookie status during the draft last year, he showed improvement last year. See, last year, he based all his picks on their previous production, not factoring in age, team changes, etc. This year, he did his homework, and looked ahead. Because of that, he should have a much more productive year than last year.
Key players: Nate's draft looks similar to mine: not a lot of names that stand out in a big way, but not a lot of no-namers either. He picked up Roethlisburger in the fifth round, enabling him focus on RB and WR in the first four. Roethlisburger is a symbol of consistency, and finished 14th at QB last year despite his suspension. Ray Rice should have another solid year, and Mike Wallace has that blowout potential that only DeSean Jackson has had in recent years. His WR corps is solid, but those receivers still have question marks at QB, so the jury is still out on them. Nate's bench stands out pretty good as well. Fred Jackson could have a good year in Buffalo, AJ Green has potential to be a #1 receiver, and Brandon Jacobs is a good goal-line RB who could step up if Bradshaw goes down. Also, Deion Branch could emerge as a legitimate 1 or 2 receiver. Only question marks? Cowboys defense. But that could quickly change.
Grade: 9 out of 10. I like this lineup; only one make-or-break (Wallace) and depth on the bench.
Bare RAST
Poor BManSC430 was at work during our draft, and while he tried his best to be present, he still had to lean on the auto draft. This is also his first year in the league, so I was disappointed I didn't get to analyze his pick-by-pick. I'm not sure what kind of homework Brandt has done, or how he will turn out, but he has some great ideas for the league. I'll mention those in a separate post.
Key players: For relying on the auto drafter, he has some solid picks but little depth. Freeman is poised to have a breakout year at QB. MJD, if he stays healthy, will have another 1000 yard + season. He has Roddy White and Miles Austin helming WR, and if Maclin's mystery illness doesn't affect him, he'll have solid production, too. His only good bench player is Deangello Williams, he could (and probably should) be starting. Other than that, he just has some "maybes". AND, to top it off, Brandt got stuck with JAY CUTLER. Now, this will be an interesting test case. Cutler can, and will, tank every fantasy team known to man. But Brandt didn't pick him, he was stuck with him. The stink is there, but who knows if it will stick.
Grade: 6 out of 10. Quality starters, no bench. One or two injuries and this team is toast.
Team Goodrich
Goodrich also was placed on the auto drafter, but didn't have any excuses. Shame and disappointment!
Key players: Arian Foster was the first pick, and a solid one. For all the questions about his ability to reproduce last year, I think he'll make it. Matt Schaub had an off year last year, but still ended as the #7 QB. If McFadden stays healthy, he'll have a big-production year. Calvin Johnson should be solid, especially if Stafford stays healthy; the Steelers should be a solid defense like always. Now, the problem with the auto drafter is usually in the bench. It doesn't take into account bench starters and sleepers. Just like Brandts bench isn't quite so hot, same with Goodrich's bench. Knox and Breaston could make a decent week or two, but not quite likely. Meachem is in the NO WR mix, and Jones and Cadillac are past their primes and not even starters.
Grade: 6 out of 10, just like Brandt. The auto drafter seems to pick slightly above average, but not by a lot.
Team Goodrum
Again, shame for not changing your name. So original. For all the whining and complaining about not being able to make your first pick, everything turned out. Johnson signed his contract, he'll start the season, and he'll probably be a top-3 RB. He's even more dependable than Jamaal Charles, who you were probably going to pick while Johnson was in his contract dispute. Eric got last place in the league last year, in case nobody was playing attention, so hopefully he's got some motivation. I think he had a better draft this year than last, but we'll see by the end of the season.
Key players: Solid picks for RBs. Johnson, Gore, and Greene are all top dogs with little competition for the starting gig. I don't think anybody is expecting LT to vulture as many carries from Greene this year like he did last year. Although that's what everyone said last year, too. WR is weak, though. The only decent WR is Vincent Jackson; Sidney Rice isn't going anywhere in Seattle, and there's nobody worthwhile on the bench to replace them with. Antonio Gates / Tony Gonzalez are a solid 1-2 in TE; if either of them are injured, it's a no-brainer to plug the other in. I like Mark Sanchez as the backup QB, and there's a decent starting RB on the bench in Ryan Matthews. While I don't condone having two defenses at the same time, the Ravens/Titans combo isn't bad.
Grade: 8 out of 10. This was a hard one to grade: the only weak spot on the whole team is WR, although it's a major weak spot. Trade Matthews away for another starting WR and this team is headed somewhere.
Million Dollar Cowboys
BJ can talk, talk, talk. Let's see how this all plays out. BJ missed the cut for the league last year, because he wasn't here in time and we were only playing 10. This year, it's 12, and BJ should bring some competition. For the record, BJ has said it will be a successful year as long as he beats Alex. We'll see. BJ, along with Eric, wins the award for worst whining during the draft; they both kept complaining about how they had to get up early the next day. The draft only comes once per year: MAN UP.
Key players: This is the clown that stole Tom Brady away from me. The last person that stole my first pick was Eric, last year when he took Ray Rice. As I stated in my blog earlier, karma found him eventually. The same might be said for BJ this year. But for reals, solid pick. Steven Jackson is an iffy one. He turned 29, usually a down year for RBs, and he's had a HUGE workload over the past 5 years. However, he isn't much of an injury prone RB, and he doesn't really show the usual signs of slowing down. The biggest risk is that Josh McDaniels likes to throw more often. I like the WR corps with DeSean Jackson and Santonio Holmes; they are both home run hitters, and can win a game for you all on their own. Also, solid production in the TE department with Dallas Clark; I didn't pick him because of his age (31), but Tony Gonzalez proved that TEs have a better shelf life than most WRs. The bench has a little bit of depth; not great, but enough to get you a win or two if necessary. Berrian is currently the #2 in Minnesota, but Harvin has the whole migraine thing and injuries, and Berrian could easily see a lot of use. Jacoby Jones is the same; you could start him on any given week and not have to worry about getting shut out. Not a big fan of Eli Manning or Roy Williams on the bench; rumor out of Chicago is the Williams is in trouble of losing his starting status. How sad / vindicating (for the Cowboys) would that be?
Grade: 8 out of 10. Solid starters, decent bench. This is a team that just needs to cruise the waivers to be solid.
Team WorldDominators
For those of you that don't know, John used to live in Indiana and is, unfortunately for him (at least for fantasy), he's a Colts homer. This became evident in the draft when Colts players were leaving the board a round or two too early. By too early, I mean that I was planning on picking up that particular player when it was my turn in the next round (see: Austin Collie). While there may have been better players available, they were still decent picks.
Key players: The Manning/Collie combo could be lethal, provided both stay healthy. If Manning throws a 25 yard TD to Collie, you know how many points John will net? About 15. From one play. Collie was quickly turning into Manning's favorite target before the concussions last year. John also came out with a good RB corps in Mendenhall, Green-Ellis, and Mike Tolbert. He has great RB depth, too: Reggie Bush and Ryan Torain are on the bench, and both have potential this year (especially Bush). If Manning doesn't start the season, he has Joe Flacco on the bench, and Flacco could easily carry the team a couple of games while waiting for Manning. John's weak point? Just like other teams this year, it's WR. Wes Welker and Austin Collie are both injury prone, and the only WR replacement John has is Steve Smith out of Carolina.
Grade: 8 out of 10. Again, I like everything but WR. What's the deal with WR this year?
Final Comments
There you have it. In a non-biased way, I give myself the highest grade this year (9 out of 10). I value consistency and insurance protection, and I feel my team has that this year. I have my obvious starters, followed by bench starters (Tim Hightower, Ochocinco, Sims-Walker) followed by sleepers (Helu and Snelling).
Every team this year has flaws. The most consistent flaw this year seems to be WR. I have a feeling that the most often looked-for position on the waivers over the first few weeks is going to be WR.
Great draft this year, by the way. As always there was lots of participation, and we even breached the draft trading barrier, which was a first for the league.
Agmen Alarius
We will have to see if my gamble paid off. A few days before the draft, I traded my first round pick (#7 overall) to Colby for his second and fourth round picks. I also threw in my ninth round pick. This made it so that I didn't pick until #18 overall, but I picked 18th, 24th, 31st, 42nd, 48th, and 55th. That's a healthy number of picks for quality players. I wasn't exactly satisfied with what would have been my first round pick (probably LeSean McCoy), so I felt better about the trade. My initial plan was thrown off by somebody picking up Tom Brady too early, along with Peyton Hillis, but I still felt I did pretty good.
Key players: My tactic came up exactly how I expected: nobody's name sticks out too far, but they are all solid players. my RB's are unproven but are the lead dogs on their teams. My WR's are the same way, but Percy Harvin may be questionable with McNabb throwing to him, and it is yet to be seen how the Dez Bryant / Miles Austin distribution will play out. Phillip Rivers, although I do not like him as a player, is consistently a top-10 QB, and I have Kyle Orton as his backup; consistent production, but no flare. I waited until the last two rounds to pick up my defense and kicker; while those positions might suffer a bit, I feel great about my bench potential. Tim Hightower could easily be switched out with any of my starting RB's and I wouldn't skip a beat. Ochocinco and Sims-Walker could both be #1 receivers, depending on how the season plays out. If Hightower goes down, I have the only Redskins replacement in Roy Helu.
Analysis: I think the trade worked great for me. This team has little risk, and if injuries arise, I can quickly replace their production with someone from the bench. I don't think I'll have high scoring games often, but I also don't see myself having low scoring games, either. If I could describe my draft and season, I would say this: consistent.
Grade: 9 out of 10
Pretty in Pink
Michelle procrastinated her draft day study until a few hours beforehand, and then didn't write down her game plan. She was given the last pick, which is a blessing and a curse. You get to pick two players back to back, but them you have to wait 24 turns before you pick again. Her initial two picks were going to be a solid QB and WR. When her first turn came up, she was going to pick Vick, but everyone in the war room questioning his durability scared her off. She stuck to the plan, though, and get Brees and Greg Jennings, and overall had a solid day.
Key players: Michelle has solid WRs in Dwayne Bowe and Greg Jennings, and a solid QB in Drew Brees. Her RB corps is questionable. Knowshon Moreno should benefit from a more consistent run oriented offense, but Pierre Thomas will be fighting the RB-by-committee syndrome in NO. Witten will be a solid TE as always, and I was surprised he was still available at the end of the fifth round. Her bench is so-so; in order for some of the players to be productive (Willis McGahee, James Jones, Malcolm Floyd) something has to happen in the depth chart in front of them. Her only real potential sleeper is the player I wanted but couldn't get because I already had 6 WRs: Danny Amendola. He could have a monster, Wes Welker year with Josh McDaniels at the offensive helm in St. Louis.
Grade: 7 out of 10. Would be higher if the RB position was a little more stable, along with some instant-production bench players
Team Stonewall
Alex was pitter-pattering about showing up at the draft party. Luckily, he put his manhood on and came over. He was prepared with a plan (everyone was way more prepared this season, I noticed), and sweated at every pick. Literally, I think I saw some pit stains going on over there. This draft was pretty intense, though. Those of you out of town missed a tense atmosphere over here. Alex missed out on Tom Brady for the first time in his Hinckley's House career, much to he chagrin (curse you BJ). He had the #4 pick though, so at least he would be getting one solid, elite RB.
Key players: Jamaal Charles is slated to have a huge year, and if he does, Alex will benefit big time. On the other hand, opposing defenses could start stacking the box if Cassel doesn't play well. Peyton Hillis was another big time RB pickup for Alex; everyone was questioning him because of the ESPN analysis "He seemed to slow down big time by the end of the year", but nobody was picking up on the fact that he had BROKEN RIBS. That's gotta throw some hesitation into a RB's game. Mark Ingram should come out as the lead dog in NO, but he is a rookie, and there will be the obvious "can he block / can he keep from fumbling" questions. Romo was a great pickup because he was #28. The big question marks on Alex's team this year are his WR. Brandon Lloyd was #1 last year, but will he be the same with Josh McDaniels passing on 75% of their plays? Will Kyle Orton be as consistent this year as last year? Devin Hester is the same way: it all depends on his QB, and everyone here knows how I feel about Jay Cutler. What makes the WR position even more difficult for Alex is that he doesn't have solid backups on the bench. Plaxico Burress is an obvious question mark with good potential (and a good showing in the preseason), but Braylon Edwards has done very little since his pro-bowl year a few years back, and should do even worse with Alex Smith throwing to him. Lee Evans is questionable as well, but if he gets his head screwed on right, has some potential with Joe Flacco throwing to him. Alex also picked up what could end up the #1 defense in the league this year, if all the big-names mesh well.
Grade: 8 out of 10. Alex could pull out some great scoring weeks, but at the same time, could run some low ones of his big names don't produce.
The Time is NOW
This year's most improved preseason player award goes to Lewis. Not only did he do his due diligence for his first few rounds, he had solid backups and sleepers planned out. He even busted out a fantasy football draft advisor magazine. I was quite impressed with the level of preparation. As I've said many times before, Lewis knows the only way to escape my taunting is to prove it on the playing field. This year he just might rise above the ranks of "dregs".
Key players: I can't believe Vick fell all the way to #15. If he was available at 18, I would have picked him up in a heartbeat. Lewis was questionable about picking him up because of Lewis' track record with injuries; I still contend that Vick's upside far outweighs his risk. Vick wasn't even Lewis' first pick, that honor goes to Andre Johnson. Johnson is the Adrian Peterson of WRs; he's usually top five, but not always #1. His RB corps could easily have been mine, since they were players ranked highly on my draft board. I especially wanted Blount this year, and Bradshaw would have been a great pick. Mario Manningham kept showing up last year, but he is a #2 receiver, and we'll see if his production remains stable. TE, defense, and kicker were all solid picks, at the sacrifice of better backups. Lewis could have used a better backup QB (Stafford?). If one of his starting WRs goes down, he'll have to search the waiver wires for a replacement unless Bess or Moore shows up. I did want Ronnie Brown, however; if McCoy goes down in Philly, Brown is a great replacement.
Grade: 7 out of 10. Vick was the winner for Lewis, but he needs backups that can be instant production.
Air Raid
Big Mac mans up every year for the draft. Last year was when he drafted during his Grandma's birthday party. This year he drafted at 10:00 at night without ever raising a fuss. This year Mcleary was really looking for a solid draft; last years draft was a bit lacking, and the start to the season was incredibly slow. He picked up, as I've documented before, but it would be better to play from ahead the rest of the season instead of trying to catch up.
Key players: Rodgers was Mcleary's #1 pick, and that should pan out as a solid one. Rodgers has been solid for a while now; if I were Big Mac, I would cringe just a little bit every time he scrambles for that first down. He's not exactly made to get hit. His RB corps is middle-of-the-road; Turner could be great, but he never seems to live completely up to his potential. Cedric Benson just got out of jail, and Lynch has always been a short yardage type. I do like his combo of WR and TE, however. Reggie Wayne will have a great year once Manning gets back on the field, and Mike Williams is an emerging all star out of TB. Vernon Davis could easily be the #1 receiver in SF this year. Big Mac also has a bench that has potential. Michael Bush could be plugged in at any time, and if McFadden goes the injury-prone route again, will be a great fantasy starter. Woodhead is the same way; he already gets a decent number of carries, and if anything happens to Green-Ellis, he'll be even more valuable. Donald Driver and Mike Williams (the Seattle one) won't put up big numbers but can easily be plugged in for a bye-week or during an injury.
Grade: 8 out of 10. While RB may be a question mark, it's not a big one, and Big Mac has a good bench to choose from when injuries rear up.
Brett Favre's Dirty Giblets
Massive Kudos to Colby for his team picture. If you haven't seen it yet, check it out. Matches the name very, very well. Colby was the other side of my trade this year. He gave up his second and fourth round picks, but got two top-10 picks. Don't forget he also had the #1 overall pick. You can always count on Colby to do his pre-draft homework, and he's got an eye for breakout players. But he also knows how to play it safe, which is what he did this year.
Key players: By playing it safe, I mean he picked Adrian Peterson instead of Arian Foster. Foster, IF he repeats, will be a monster this year. AP, however, has shown production every year. The only risk is that he has been overworked, but there haven't been many signs of that yet. With #7 he could have picked up Vick, who he thought pretty hard about, but stuck again with the safe road and picked LeSean McCoy. Colby easily has the best RB stable in the league. That came with a sacrifice, though: his starting QB is Sam Bradford. While I think Bradford will have a breakout year, and he was the QB I wanted as a backup, he hasn't proven it yet. That could be a disaster for Colby, but I doubt it. Let's not forget Colby also picked up Matt Forte in the third round; that means all three of Colby's RB's were top-ten last year. Breaking away from Colby's stellar RB group, lets look at the less-than-stellar WR group. Marques Colston is unpredictable because Brees spreads the ball so well. Since I don't have any words for Anquan Boldin, I'll just use Colby's immediately following the pick: "I immediately regret that decision". Luckily, he backed up the weak WR corps with some potential on the bench: Jacoby Ford and Julio Jones. Both have a lot to prove before they are fantasy starters, but both have the immediate potential to be there. In other words, there doesn't need to be an injury before they can contribute. Solid picks at defense and kicker.
Grade: 8 out of 10. I like Colby's strategy, and I think it will play out, but the only problem area is QB. If Bradford doesn't shine, Colby has to lean on Colt McCoy as a backup. What could have been a hole at WR was plugged by a decent bench of WRs.
Disco Inferno
While Nate exposed his rookie status during the draft last year, he showed improvement last year. See, last year, he based all his picks on their previous production, not factoring in age, team changes, etc. This year, he did his homework, and looked ahead. Because of that, he should have a much more productive year than last year.
Key players: Nate's draft looks similar to mine: not a lot of names that stand out in a big way, but not a lot of no-namers either. He picked up Roethlisburger in the fifth round, enabling him focus on RB and WR in the first four. Roethlisburger is a symbol of consistency, and finished 14th at QB last year despite his suspension. Ray Rice should have another solid year, and Mike Wallace has that blowout potential that only DeSean Jackson has had in recent years. His WR corps is solid, but those receivers still have question marks at QB, so the jury is still out on them. Nate's bench stands out pretty good as well. Fred Jackson could have a good year in Buffalo, AJ Green has potential to be a #1 receiver, and Brandon Jacobs is a good goal-line RB who could step up if Bradshaw goes down. Also, Deion Branch could emerge as a legitimate 1 or 2 receiver. Only question marks? Cowboys defense. But that could quickly change.
Grade: 9 out of 10. I like this lineup; only one make-or-break (Wallace) and depth on the bench.
Bare RAST
Poor BManSC430 was at work during our draft, and while he tried his best to be present, he still had to lean on the auto draft. This is also his first year in the league, so I was disappointed I didn't get to analyze his pick-by-pick. I'm not sure what kind of homework Brandt has done, or how he will turn out, but he has some great ideas for the league. I'll mention those in a separate post.
Key players: For relying on the auto drafter, he has some solid picks but little depth. Freeman is poised to have a breakout year at QB. MJD, if he stays healthy, will have another 1000 yard + season. He has Roddy White and Miles Austin helming WR, and if Maclin's mystery illness doesn't affect him, he'll have solid production, too. His only good bench player is Deangello Williams, he could (and probably should) be starting. Other than that, he just has some "maybes". AND, to top it off, Brandt got stuck with JAY CUTLER. Now, this will be an interesting test case. Cutler can, and will, tank every fantasy team known to man. But Brandt didn't pick him, he was stuck with him. The stink is there, but who knows if it will stick.
Grade: 6 out of 10. Quality starters, no bench. One or two injuries and this team is toast.
Team Goodrich
Goodrich also was placed on the auto drafter, but didn't have any excuses. Shame and disappointment!
Key players: Arian Foster was the first pick, and a solid one. For all the questions about his ability to reproduce last year, I think he'll make it. Matt Schaub had an off year last year, but still ended as the #7 QB. If McFadden stays healthy, he'll have a big-production year. Calvin Johnson should be solid, especially if Stafford stays healthy; the Steelers should be a solid defense like always. Now, the problem with the auto drafter is usually in the bench. It doesn't take into account bench starters and sleepers. Just like Brandts bench isn't quite so hot, same with Goodrich's bench. Knox and Breaston could make a decent week or two, but not quite likely. Meachem is in the NO WR mix, and Jones and Cadillac are past their primes and not even starters.
Grade: 6 out of 10, just like Brandt. The auto drafter seems to pick slightly above average, but not by a lot.
Team Goodrum
Again, shame for not changing your name. So original. For all the whining and complaining about not being able to make your first pick, everything turned out. Johnson signed his contract, he'll start the season, and he'll probably be a top-3 RB. He's even more dependable than Jamaal Charles, who you were probably going to pick while Johnson was in his contract dispute. Eric got last place in the league last year, in case nobody was playing attention, so hopefully he's got some motivation. I think he had a better draft this year than last, but we'll see by the end of the season.
Key players: Solid picks for RBs. Johnson, Gore, and Greene are all top dogs with little competition for the starting gig. I don't think anybody is expecting LT to vulture as many carries from Greene this year like he did last year. Although that's what everyone said last year, too. WR is weak, though. The only decent WR is Vincent Jackson; Sidney Rice isn't going anywhere in Seattle, and there's nobody worthwhile on the bench to replace them with. Antonio Gates / Tony Gonzalez are a solid 1-2 in TE; if either of them are injured, it's a no-brainer to plug the other in. I like Mark Sanchez as the backup QB, and there's a decent starting RB on the bench in Ryan Matthews. While I don't condone having two defenses at the same time, the Ravens/Titans combo isn't bad.
Grade: 8 out of 10. This was a hard one to grade: the only weak spot on the whole team is WR, although it's a major weak spot. Trade Matthews away for another starting WR and this team is headed somewhere.
Million Dollar Cowboys
BJ can talk, talk, talk. Let's see how this all plays out. BJ missed the cut for the league last year, because he wasn't here in time and we were only playing 10. This year, it's 12, and BJ should bring some competition. For the record, BJ has said it will be a successful year as long as he beats Alex. We'll see. BJ, along with Eric, wins the award for worst whining during the draft; they both kept complaining about how they had to get up early the next day. The draft only comes once per year: MAN UP.
Key players: This is the clown that stole Tom Brady away from me. The last person that stole my first pick was Eric, last year when he took Ray Rice. As I stated in my blog earlier, karma found him eventually. The same might be said for BJ this year. But for reals, solid pick. Steven Jackson is an iffy one. He turned 29, usually a down year for RBs, and he's had a HUGE workload over the past 5 years. However, he isn't much of an injury prone RB, and he doesn't really show the usual signs of slowing down. The biggest risk is that Josh McDaniels likes to throw more often. I like the WR corps with DeSean Jackson and Santonio Holmes; they are both home run hitters, and can win a game for you all on their own. Also, solid production in the TE department with Dallas Clark; I didn't pick him because of his age (31), but Tony Gonzalez proved that TEs have a better shelf life than most WRs. The bench has a little bit of depth; not great, but enough to get you a win or two if necessary. Berrian is currently the #2 in Minnesota, but Harvin has the whole migraine thing and injuries, and Berrian could easily see a lot of use. Jacoby Jones is the same; you could start him on any given week and not have to worry about getting shut out. Not a big fan of Eli Manning or Roy Williams on the bench; rumor out of Chicago is the Williams is in trouble of losing his starting status. How sad / vindicating (for the Cowboys) would that be?
Grade: 8 out of 10. Solid starters, decent bench. This is a team that just needs to cruise the waivers to be solid.
Team WorldDominators
For those of you that don't know, John used to live in Indiana and is, unfortunately for him (at least for fantasy), he's a Colts homer. This became evident in the draft when Colts players were leaving the board a round or two too early. By too early, I mean that I was planning on picking up that particular player when it was my turn in the next round (see: Austin Collie). While there may have been better players available, they were still decent picks.
Key players: The Manning/Collie combo could be lethal, provided both stay healthy. If Manning throws a 25 yard TD to Collie, you know how many points John will net? About 15. From one play. Collie was quickly turning into Manning's favorite target before the concussions last year. John also came out with a good RB corps in Mendenhall, Green-Ellis, and Mike Tolbert. He has great RB depth, too: Reggie Bush and Ryan Torain are on the bench, and both have potential this year (especially Bush). If Manning doesn't start the season, he has Joe Flacco on the bench, and Flacco could easily carry the team a couple of games while waiting for Manning. John's weak point? Just like other teams this year, it's WR. Wes Welker and Austin Collie are both injury prone, and the only WR replacement John has is Steve Smith out of Carolina.
Grade: 8 out of 10. Again, I like everything but WR. What's the deal with WR this year?
Final Comments
There you have it. In a non-biased way, I give myself the highest grade this year (9 out of 10). I value consistency and insurance protection, and I feel my team has that this year. I have my obvious starters, followed by bench starters (Tim Hightower, Ochocinco, Sims-Walker) followed by sleepers (Helu and Snelling).
Every team this year has flaws. The most consistent flaw this year seems to be WR. I have a feeling that the most often looked-for position on the waivers over the first few weeks is going to be WR.
Great draft this year, by the way. As always there was lots of participation, and we even breached the draft trading barrier, which was a first for the league.
Thursday, August 25, 2011
Draft Time and Trading
First off, everyone should know that the draft has been moved from 8:00 PM this Sunday to 9:00 PM. This was due to enough players not being sure if they would have all Sunday activities over by 8:00. This isn't bad since the draft normally only takes about an hour.
Second, Draft Pick Trading has begun. Colby and I have kicked it off by making a trade. I traded Colby my first round pick and my 9th round pick for his 2nd and 4th. If anyone wants to initiate a trade or if they have questions on a trade, let me know. To trade picks, all you do is 1) log in to Fantasy Football on ESPN, 2) visit the team page of the opponent you want to trade with and 3) click the "propose trade" button near the top. Then you scroll down to the draft pick area and select which picks you're trading. It's pretty easy!
Second, Draft Pick Trading has begun. Colby and I have kicked it off by making a trade. I traded Colby my first round pick and my 9th round pick for his 2nd and 4th. If anyone wants to initiate a trade or if they have questions on a trade, let me know. To trade picks, all you do is 1) log in to Fantasy Football on ESPN, 2) visit the team page of the opponent you want to trade with and 3) click the "propose trade" button near the top. Then you scroll down to the draft pick area and select which picks you're trading. It's pretty easy!
Draft Pick Guesses
This will be new this year. I'll take each player at their current pick and weigh the decisions, and ultimately I'll take a stab at who they will pick. In obvious order, I'll start at #1.
Brett Favre's Dirty Giblets
Colby, due to the prize from winning the Championship Game last year, has the first pick. The question is: who will he pick? There are only three real options that I see: Michael Vick, Arian Foster, or Adrian Peterson. The hard part about picking Michael Vick is that this is a strong QB year, and you could easily get a 200 point + QB in the third and fourth round. Just look how low Romo and Roethlisburger have fallen. Arian Foster had a solid year last year, but he's unproven other than that. Peterson is consistent, but with a questionable QB and 300+ carries now for 4 years, how will he do? Will opposing defenses just stack the box since McNabb doesn't have a solid WR corps? The other difficult option for Colby is that he doesn't get to pick again until the 24th and 25th pick. Will there be an elite QB remaining at that point? What about an elite RB?
My Guess: Colby will probably snatch up Vick. His upside is unbelievable, and it will be easy to pick up a replacement QB in the later rounds. Colby can get decent RBs with the 24th and 25th pick, or maybe a RB and a WR.
Team Goodrich
With Vick off the board, the #2 pick suddenly becomes simple. Which of the three top-tier RB's will Goodrich choose, Foster, Peterson, or Charles? I've already documented the upsides and downsides of Foster and Peterson, but what of Charles? Jamaal Charles had a great year last year, led the league in yards-per-carry, and is in the RB prime (Early 20's with few touches the previous year and the clear lead RB for his team).
My Guess: Arian Foster has the best overall chances to repeat his stellar year. He has a great O-line, no RB by committee, and an elite passing game with Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson, which means opposing defenses can't stack the box against him. Goodrich will probably pick up Foster.
Team Goodrum
With Foster and Vick off the board the choices keep becoming simpler. There are only 2 elite RBs remainnig, Peterson and Charles. It's too hard to justify picking up a WR this early, and as stated above, it's too easy to get a good QB later. Eric will settle on one of these two RBs.
My Guess: Eric showed last year with Ray Rice that he prefers young talent with great upside to proven talent that may be on the decline. He will pick Jamaal Charles and hope Charles continues his streak from last year.
Team Stonewall
Right about now, everyone is saying "What about Chris Johnson"? If this were two weeks ago, I would say "He's ok, he'll sign his new contract and everything will be fine." But here we are a little over two weeks before the season starts, and the best we've heard out of the Titans camp is "We had a nice talk, but we're not much further along than before." Even if Chris Johnson misses one or two games, that moves him out of first-round fodder. Like in the NFL, you need your first round pick to produce right now. Which Johnson may not. So for now, I'm pretending like Johnson will be a holdout long enough to damage his draft status. All that leaves in the elite RB category is AP.
My Guess: Alex picks up AP, which at #4, is a pretty good pick.
Disco Inferno
This is the pick where things start to get difficult to judge. The dropoff in RB production is pretty significant, which opens the door to a WR or a QB. ESPN is projecting MJD to go #5, but I just can't justify him at this spot. While MJD is top-notch while healthy, he's rarely fully healthy. Also, he's had a heavy workload in previous years and he doesn't have a decent passing game to take the pressure off. Ray Rice is a pretty good pick, but he was hailed as the next Brian Westbrook, and while he did have a decent year, he didn't have an all-star year. The next RB that ESPN projects is LeSean McCoy at #8, with Aaron Rodgers in between.
My Guess: This one is a shot in the dark, but I'll guess Nate picks up Ray Rice. He has a greater upside than MJD and fewer health concerns.
Air Raid
Big Mac got scarred last year because of Brett Favre. I won the league two seasons ago by drafting Favre in the last few rounds, but Big Mac spent an early pick on him, much to his chagrine. He finally settled on Josh Freeman later in the year, but not soon enough. The reason I bring this up is because this pick is between MJD, Aaron Rodgers, and LeSean McCoy.
My Guess: Mcleary will pick up Rodgers and save himself from the terrible stress of having a terrible QB. It's easier to sleep at night with a QB that has consistently been top 3 ever since Favre left, right? Let's just hope he doesn't scramble too much, because although he's a good running QB, he's not nearly as fast as Vick.
Agmen Alarius
I feel that at this point my pick should be simple. With Rodgers off the board, my choice is between MJD, LeSean McCoy, and a top-tier WR. Why not a QB? Because I've got a pick in the middle of the second round and there should be a number of QBs available to me at that slot. I can also settle for a godo WR in the third round or even later.
My Guess: If these are the players available to me at #7, I'll go with LeSean McCoy. With Vick at the helm his statistics actually increase; I'm guessing this is because most defenses have to play more contain with Vick, which opens up the middle a little bit.
Bare Rast
This pick is a wildcard, because I'm pretty sure this is the first year B-Rant has played fantasy football. Or at least the first year he has played with us. Either way, I'm not sure what direction he'll take. I'm guessing he'll follow somewhere around the lines of "take the best player ESPN projects", but Brandt is also smart enough that I imagine he will do a little bit of homework. Either way, I think this pick goes one of two ways, Chris Johnson or MJD. According to ESPN projections, they will be the #3 and #5 picks still on the board, and both will be hard to pass at #8.
My Guess: I'll say BManSC430 takes MJD. He's finally healthy and not holding out like Chris Johnson. After I pick up McCoy with the #7 pick, there won't be any "elite" RB's left, and MJD presents the best shot.
Million Dollar Cowboys
At this point in the draft is where ESPN projects WRs to begin getting picked up. BJ is going to have to ask: What's more valuable? Should he use this pick for an elite QB? Should he get a second-tier RB? Or should he follow ESPN and pick up a top-tier WR? If it's WR's, ESPN is showing Andre Johnson and Roddy White; he could get Rashard Mendenhall or Frank Gore at RB; or he could break down and get the best QB still available, who is probably Tom Brady.
My Guess: I think BJ will bite the bullet and get Chris Johnson. While he may hold out a few games, he would be a top three pick and can rush for over 2000 yards + receiving.
Dallas the Time is NOW
Last year, there was a major disparity between top-tier WRs and second-tier WRs. This year, there are more WRs that fit the top-tier mold: Greg Jennings, Miles Austin, Dez Bryant, Julio Jones... they each have tremendous potential. That makes it more difficult to spend a first round pick on a WR. However, more teams are using the RB-by-committee approach, making top-tier RBs more scarce. While ESPN is projecting WRs to leave by the #10 pick, does Lewis follow that advice or blaze his own trail?
My Guess: Lewis will opt for a RB, and the only real picks for that at this point are Frank Gore or Rashard Mendenhall. Lewis will go for Mendenhall, who is coming off a good year and who plays for a power-running team.
Team WorldDominators
With more RBs off the board, John is going to be limited in his choices. Will he pick Frank Gore, who is a proven player but has no QB to relieve the pressure? I think this is the point that WRs will begin to be taken. There are questions surrounding which player, though. Andre Johnson is coming off a poor year (by his standards), but he may benefit from having a strong running game. Roddy White should get some competition from Julio Jones. What about Greg Jennings?
My Guess: John will take the best available by prediction, who is Andre Johnson. He should have a better year than last, he has a good QB and RB, and he doesn't face much pressure from other WRs who might otherwise take some of his targets.
Pretty in Pink
Now we come to the last pick in the first round. Poor Michelle is at the end, but benefits from having the first pick in the second round. This gives her quite a bit of flexibility. She can pick up a quick 1-2 with a RB and a WR, or she can get a RB and a QB, or two elite WRs... the list goes on. Since this is the last pick, I'll predict what she will do with both her picks.
My Guess: Michelle will not pick again for 24 picks after these, or into the 30s. That means she will most likely pick up a top-tier QB and probably a RB. The QB will most likely be Tom Brady, and the RB will most likely be Frank Gore. After this she can pursue some WRs in the middle-rounds.
So there you have it. Those are my predictions for what will happen in the first round.
Brett Favre's Dirty Giblets
Colby, due to the prize from winning the Championship Game last year, has the first pick. The question is: who will he pick? There are only three real options that I see: Michael Vick, Arian Foster, or Adrian Peterson. The hard part about picking Michael Vick is that this is a strong QB year, and you could easily get a 200 point + QB in the third and fourth round. Just look how low Romo and Roethlisburger have fallen. Arian Foster had a solid year last year, but he's unproven other than that. Peterson is consistent, but with a questionable QB and 300+ carries now for 4 years, how will he do? Will opposing defenses just stack the box since McNabb doesn't have a solid WR corps? The other difficult option for Colby is that he doesn't get to pick again until the 24th and 25th pick. Will there be an elite QB remaining at that point? What about an elite RB?
My Guess: Colby will probably snatch up Vick. His upside is unbelievable, and it will be easy to pick up a replacement QB in the later rounds. Colby can get decent RBs with the 24th and 25th pick, or maybe a RB and a WR.
Team Goodrich
With Vick off the board, the #2 pick suddenly becomes simple. Which of the three top-tier RB's will Goodrich choose, Foster, Peterson, or Charles? I've already documented the upsides and downsides of Foster and Peterson, but what of Charles? Jamaal Charles had a great year last year, led the league in yards-per-carry, and is in the RB prime (Early 20's with few touches the previous year and the clear lead RB for his team).
My Guess: Arian Foster has the best overall chances to repeat his stellar year. He has a great O-line, no RB by committee, and an elite passing game with Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson, which means opposing defenses can't stack the box against him. Goodrich will probably pick up Foster.
Team Goodrum
With Foster and Vick off the board the choices keep becoming simpler. There are only 2 elite RBs remainnig, Peterson and Charles. It's too hard to justify picking up a WR this early, and as stated above, it's too easy to get a good QB later. Eric will settle on one of these two RBs.
My Guess: Eric showed last year with Ray Rice that he prefers young talent with great upside to proven talent that may be on the decline. He will pick Jamaal Charles and hope Charles continues his streak from last year.
Team Stonewall
Right about now, everyone is saying "What about Chris Johnson"? If this were two weeks ago, I would say "He's ok, he'll sign his new contract and everything will be fine." But here we are a little over two weeks before the season starts, and the best we've heard out of the Titans camp is "We had a nice talk, but we're not much further along than before." Even if Chris Johnson misses one or two games, that moves him out of first-round fodder. Like in the NFL, you need your first round pick to produce right now. Which Johnson may not. So for now, I'm pretending like Johnson will be a holdout long enough to damage his draft status. All that leaves in the elite RB category is AP.
My Guess: Alex picks up AP, which at #4, is a pretty good pick.
Disco Inferno
This is the pick where things start to get difficult to judge. The dropoff in RB production is pretty significant, which opens the door to a WR or a QB. ESPN is projecting MJD to go #5, but I just can't justify him at this spot. While MJD is top-notch while healthy, he's rarely fully healthy. Also, he's had a heavy workload in previous years and he doesn't have a decent passing game to take the pressure off. Ray Rice is a pretty good pick, but he was hailed as the next Brian Westbrook, and while he did have a decent year, he didn't have an all-star year. The next RB that ESPN projects is LeSean McCoy at #8, with Aaron Rodgers in between.
My Guess: This one is a shot in the dark, but I'll guess Nate picks up Ray Rice. He has a greater upside than MJD and fewer health concerns.
Air Raid
Big Mac got scarred last year because of Brett Favre. I won the league two seasons ago by drafting Favre in the last few rounds, but Big Mac spent an early pick on him, much to his chagrine. He finally settled on Josh Freeman later in the year, but not soon enough. The reason I bring this up is because this pick is between MJD, Aaron Rodgers, and LeSean McCoy.
My Guess: Mcleary will pick up Rodgers and save himself from the terrible stress of having a terrible QB. It's easier to sleep at night with a QB that has consistently been top 3 ever since Favre left, right? Let's just hope he doesn't scramble too much, because although he's a good running QB, he's not nearly as fast as Vick.
Agmen Alarius
I feel that at this point my pick should be simple. With Rodgers off the board, my choice is between MJD, LeSean McCoy, and a top-tier WR. Why not a QB? Because I've got a pick in the middle of the second round and there should be a number of QBs available to me at that slot. I can also settle for a godo WR in the third round or even later.
My Guess: If these are the players available to me at #7, I'll go with LeSean McCoy. With Vick at the helm his statistics actually increase; I'm guessing this is because most defenses have to play more contain with Vick, which opens up the middle a little bit.
Bare Rast
This pick is a wildcard, because I'm pretty sure this is the first year B-Rant has played fantasy football. Or at least the first year he has played with us. Either way, I'm not sure what direction he'll take. I'm guessing he'll follow somewhere around the lines of "take the best player ESPN projects", but Brandt is also smart enough that I imagine he will do a little bit of homework. Either way, I think this pick goes one of two ways, Chris Johnson or MJD. According to ESPN projections, they will be the #3 and #5 picks still on the board, and both will be hard to pass at #8.
My Guess: I'll say BManSC430 takes MJD. He's finally healthy and not holding out like Chris Johnson. After I pick up McCoy with the #7 pick, there won't be any "elite" RB's left, and MJD presents the best shot.
Million Dollar Cowboys
At this point in the draft is where ESPN projects WRs to begin getting picked up. BJ is going to have to ask: What's more valuable? Should he use this pick for an elite QB? Should he get a second-tier RB? Or should he follow ESPN and pick up a top-tier WR? If it's WR's, ESPN is showing Andre Johnson and Roddy White; he could get Rashard Mendenhall or Frank Gore at RB; or he could break down and get the best QB still available, who is probably Tom Brady.
My Guess: I think BJ will bite the bullet and get Chris Johnson. While he may hold out a few games, he would be a top three pick and can rush for over 2000 yards + receiving.
Dallas the Time is NOW
Last year, there was a major disparity between top-tier WRs and second-tier WRs. This year, there are more WRs that fit the top-tier mold: Greg Jennings, Miles Austin, Dez Bryant, Julio Jones... they each have tremendous potential. That makes it more difficult to spend a first round pick on a WR. However, more teams are using the RB-by-committee approach, making top-tier RBs more scarce. While ESPN is projecting WRs to leave by the #10 pick, does Lewis follow that advice or blaze his own trail?
My Guess: Lewis will opt for a RB, and the only real picks for that at this point are Frank Gore or Rashard Mendenhall. Lewis will go for Mendenhall, who is coming off a good year and who plays for a power-running team.
Team WorldDominators
With more RBs off the board, John is going to be limited in his choices. Will he pick Frank Gore, who is a proven player but has no QB to relieve the pressure? I think this is the point that WRs will begin to be taken. There are questions surrounding which player, though. Andre Johnson is coming off a poor year (by his standards), but he may benefit from having a strong running game. Roddy White should get some competition from Julio Jones. What about Greg Jennings?
My Guess: John will take the best available by prediction, who is Andre Johnson. He should have a better year than last, he has a good QB and RB, and he doesn't face much pressure from other WRs who might otherwise take some of his targets.
Pretty in Pink
Now we come to the last pick in the first round. Poor Michelle is at the end, but benefits from having the first pick in the second round. This gives her quite a bit of flexibility. She can pick up a quick 1-2 with a RB and a WR, or she can get a RB and a QB, or two elite WRs... the list goes on. Since this is the last pick, I'll predict what she will do with both her picks.
My Guess: Michelle will not pick again for 24 picks after these, or into the 30s. That means she will most likely pick up a top-tier QB and probably a RB. The QB will most likely be Tom Brady, and the RB will most likely be Frank Gore. After this she can pursue some WRs in the middle-rounds.
So there you have it. Those are my predictions for what will happen in the first round.
Saturday, August 20, 2011
The Contenders
Now that the 12th man has joined the league, it's time to do a quick bio on the contenders this year. There are two changes from last year: First, Andrew Kretchmer has left the league. As noted in the recap, he had a solid year because of the WR set of Greg Jennings and Dawyne Bowe, and Matt Forte had a great year. He was the league leader in points (over 1400), so his production will be missed. The second big change is that we expanded the league to 12. This should make things more competitive; not only will there be two more bodies, but that means high-scoring players will be scarce.
Patrick Hinckley; Agmen Alarius
Yes, this is me. I've been the commissioner of this league for three years now. I'll be the one behind the blog every week, usually multiple times per week. I'm from Plano, although right now I'm living in Provo going to BYU. Everyone that is in this league knows me somehow, whether it's friends growing up (Alex, Lewis, Eric, etc), work friends (Justin and Colby), or friends I've made up here (Nate). I've been married for 2 1/2 years to Michelle, who also happens to be the only girl allowed in the league.
Michelle Hinckley; Pretty in Pink
Michelle has been in this league since its founding. You'll notice Eric makes constant reference that Pretty in Pink is my "second" team; he only does this since he lost to her twice last year and it's the only way he can sleep at night. Michelle loves reading Harry Potter, Twilight, watching anything Disney/Pixar related, and loves to bake. When asking if Michelle would like something, you have to ask: Would a five year old girl like this? If the answer to that question is yes, than Michelle would like it too.
Alex Goodrum; Team Stonewall
Alexander Royal Stonewall Jackson Goodrum, to be exact. He's also been in this league since its founding. Alex has the fantasy football record of most points scored without making it to the winners bracket. Owie Wowie lives in Provo right now, but he's originally from Plano, and "played football" at Dixie for two years. He's married to Tara, who keeps his style phresh and his toes clean. He has a nasty foot with some screws in it and loves driving into ditches full of snow. Although he looks like Elvis, he will tell you that he does not look like Elvis, although he really thinks he does look like Elvis, and loves that fact that he does look like Elvis. He was one of three people in the entire world that loved his dog Mopsy before she was benevolently removed from this world; not for her good, but for the good of humanity.
Lewis Goodrum; The Time is Now
Lewis is Alex's brother and also one of the leagues original founders. Lewis has found himself at the butt-end of most jokes; he also knows the only way to cure this plague is to win some fantasy football games. Which is why his team is named "The Time is Now". Despite his v-neck shirts, gold chains, and meat (chest hair) hangin out of his shirt, we are rather fond of Lewis, which is what makes beating him in fantasy football all the sweeter. Lewis lives in Provo right now, attends BYU, and is married to Kara, who is one of the few Texans who doesn't actually like the state. He just got himself his dream car growing up: a Cadillac CTS. Oh, and his internet doesn't work right now. I should see how that is going...
Eric Goodrum; Team Goodrum
Eric was a newcomer to the league last year, and promptly filled that role by A) Stealing my first draft choice, and B) getting last place. Karma will always find you. Eric is the oldest brother of Alex and Lewis, and lives in Prosper, Texas. He's a firefighter and has 2 or 3 kids... I can't remember and I'm too lazy to look it up or call someone to find out. He's married to Maribel, whose Colombian (if I remember right) and Erics best hope of growing up someday. Lucky for Eric this year, since he was last place last year, even 4 wins will be an improvement. Maybe he can spend some of that legendary free time at the Fire Station cruising the waver-wire and doing some pre-draft homework.
Brannon Killgo; Million Dollar Cowboys
BJ is one of only two players who have never been in the league. This will be his inaugural season, and I'm sure he is by himself thinking he will end up at the top. Despite looking 40-something, BJ is in his late twenties. He's single, ladies! BJ is the cousin of Alex/Lewis/Eric, which is how he finds his way into the league. I'm really not sure what he does these days: singing, acting, something like that. Being a Killgo, BJ is a natural-born talker/persuader, and has "a guy" for everything that needs to be done. Need a computer hacked? BJ's got a guy for that. Need some marijuana? (Strictly for medical purposes, of course) BJ's got a guy for that. Need some fantasy football advice? We'll see about that...
Brandt Rast; Bare RAST
Brandt is the second newcomer to the league, although just like BJ, we have known him forever. This picture is a bit deceiving, because it implies that Brandt is athletic or coordinated in some way. Don't be fooled! Luckily, fantasy football requires no such athletic talent, but it remains to be seen what Brandt will produce this year. As seen on his shirt, Brandt spent too long among the Canadiens, but he returned to us, largely intact. He lives in the charming town of Roberts, Idaho in a house that that was built while Napolean was still alive (almost, no exaggeration) Brandt has been married for one year to Allyce, and other than Eric, will be the only player in the league with a kiddo. Which is about the scariest thing ever, for the kid, and society as a whole. Brandt goes to BYU-I, and has his eyes on optometry (haha! Get it?)
Colby Nelson; Brett Favre's Dirty Giblets
Colby is another perennial contender in the league, and has finished top four each year. He's also our current champion, and one day before this season is over, I'll have a trophy made so that he can hold it until I win it back again. Colby is not a redneck nor does he live in the South, although he makes a pretty convincing redneck southerner when he wants to try. He did go to Ft. Worth on his mission, so at least he is versed in redneck lore. He hails from all over, but he claims Florida as his own, and his favorite team is the Jaguars (poor soul). Colby is married to Rashell, who is half-mexican but as white as Eric's wife is. Which is to say that they are exotic in look, only. Colby wanted to name his team as offensive as possible, finally settling on his current team name.
Andrew Mcleary; Air Raid
Andrew Mcleary (AKA Big Mac, or just Mcleary) has also been in the league since its founding. Big Mac grew up in Plano with all the gang, and even beat a big black kid named Biggie in an eating contest (He ate a triple-triple and fries from Whataburger in something like three minutes). Mcleary is all about anything football, which is why I invited him into the league as soon as it opened. He's currently in the Air Force, stationed somewhere on the east coast (I think South Carolina). Big Mac makes good rap mix-tape CD's, is stellar at sand-volleyball, and loves long walks on the beach.
Nate Kartchner; Disco Inferno
Nate has promised his sophomore season will be more successful than his freshman, and I'm inclined to believe him. Nate's first-ever fantasy football season was last year, and I'm proud to say that I've hooked him. Nate lives in Provo, like half of us, except that he has a real job and doesn't go to school anymore. Nate has a yellow Honda S2000 and I'm about to be his neighbor. Nate is the most normal person I know who has a deep understanding of comic books / cartoon lore. He's married to Katy Batemen, served a mission in Texas, and because of these things, is bound to live there.
Justin Goodrich; Team Goodrich
Justin is one of the two teams that needs to change their names (Team Goodrum and Goodrich? That's original. I guess that's why you have the same four-letter abbreviation: good). Goodrich is a natural Utohnian, living in Spanish Fork and working in Heber. This happy go luck chap almost missed last year's draft, but thinking quickly, I used the America First internal call transfer system to track down his work cell phone and prevent him from missing one of the biggest days of the year. He's got a couple of kiddos himself, and he also speaks Korean. Speaking of Korean, one of his favorite people in the world is an old Korean woman who speaks no English and refers to people she doesn't like by pretending she has devil horns.
John Lydiksen; Team WorldDominators
John is the younger brother of Michelle. A couple years back, when the league was just a fledgling newborn, I invited all three of the Lydiksen brothers to be part of it. Of the three, John was the only player who consistently played, and if I remember right, he rode Chris Johnson the entire year. John lives in Oceanside, CA and is in his senior year of high school. John is about the coolest cat I know, which is to say he doesn't care about anything too much, which is to say he's awesome.
Well, that should do it for the introductions this year. I believe this year is going to be the best year for fantasy football. Not only do we have 12 competitive people, but I've specifically chosen people who are competitive, smart, and will play each week (FYI - a surefire death wish out of the league is to forget to replace your players on bye-week, or injured players). I've always toyed with the idea of kicking out the last place player each year, since there are still about four people who still want in the league, but as long as everyone plays each week, I've never pulled the trigger on that idea. Introductions aside, I'll post my thoughts on the draft pick order (It's set, by the way. Pull up your team home page to see where you stand).
Patrick Hinckley; Agmen Alarius
Michelle Hinckley; Pretty in Pink
Alex Goodrum; Team Stonewall
Lewis Goodrum; The Time is Now
Eric Goodrum; Team Goodrum
Brannon Killgo; Million Dollar Cowboys
Brandt Rast; Bare RAST
Colby Nelson; Brett Favre's Dirty Giblets
Andrew Mcleary; Air Raid
Nate Kartchner; Disco Inferno
John Lydiksen; Team WorldDominators
Well, that should do it for the introductions this year. I believe this year is going to be the best year for fantasy football. Not only do we have 12 competitive people, but I've specifically chosen people who are competitive, smart, and will play each week (FYI - a surefire death wish out of the league is to forget to replace your players on bye-week, or injured players). I've always toyed with the idea of kicking out the last place player each year, since there are still about four people who still want in the league, but as long as everyone plays each week, I've never pulled the trigger on that idea. Introductions aside, I'll post my thoughts on the draft pick order (It's set, by the way. Pull up your team home page to see where you stand).
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)