Draft Recap and Analysis

As Alex as reminded me several times, I'm not allowed to slack on the blog, and this is one major portion of the blog!  I'll be going through each team's draft, and give it a grade 1-10.  Of course this is all my speculation, but this is my blog, so that's why I get to do it.  I'll start with myself.

Agmen Alarius
We will have to see if my gamble paid off.  A few days before the draft, I traded my first round pick (#7 overall) to Colby for his second and fourth round picks.  I also threw in my ninth round pick.  This made it so that I didn't pick until #18 overall, but I picked 18th, 24th, 31st, 42nd, 48th, and 55th.  That's a healthy number of picks for quality players.  I wasn't exactly satisfied with what would have been my first round pick (probably LeSean McCoy), so I felt better about the trade.  My initial plan was thrown off by somebody picking up Tom Brady too early, along with Peyton Hillis, but I still felt I did pretty good.

Key players: My tactic came up exactly how I expected: nobody's name sticks out too far, but they are all solid players.  my RB's are unproven but are the lead dogs on their teams.  My WR's are the same way, but Percy Harvin may be questionable with McNabb throwing to him, and it is yet to be seen how the Dez Bryant / Miles Austin distribution will play out.  Phillip Rivers, although I do not like him as a player, is consistently a top-10 QB, and I have Kyle Orton as his backup; consistent production, but no flare.  I waited until the last two rounds to pick up my defense and kicker; while those positions might suffer a bit, I feel great about my bench potential.  Tim Hightower could easily be switched out with any of my starting RB's and I wouldn't skip a beat.  Ochocinco and Sims-Walker could both be #1 receivers, depending on how the season plays out.  If Hightower goes down, I have the only Redskins replacement in Roy Helu.

Analysis: I think the trade worked great for me.  This team has little risk, and if injuries arise, I can quickly replace their production with someone from the bench.  I don't think I'll have high scoring games often, but I also don't see myself having low scoring games, either.  If I could describe my draft and season, I would say this: consistent.

Grade: 9 out of 10


Pretty in Pink
Michelle procrastinated her draft day study until a few hours beforehand, and then didn't write down her game plan.  She was given the last pick, which is a blessing and a curse.  You get to pick two players back to back, but them you have to wait 24 turns before you pick again.  Her initial two picks were going to be a solid QB and WR.  When her first turn came up, she was going to pick Vick, but everyone in the war room questioning his durability scared her off.  She stuck to the plan, though, and get Brees and Greg Jennings, and overall had a solid day.

Key players: Michelle has solid WRs in Dwayne Bowe and Greg Jennings, and a solid QB in Drew Brees.  Her RB corps is questionable.  Knowshon Moreno should benefit from a more consistent run oriented offense, but Pierre Thomas will be fighting the RB-by-committee syndrome in NO.  Witten will be a solid TE as always, and I was surprised he was still available at the end of the fifth round.  Her bench is so-so; in order for some of the players to be productive (Willis McGahee, James Jones, Malcolm Floyd) something has to happen in the depth chart in front of them.  Her only real potential sleeper is the player I wanted but couldn't get because I already had 6 WRs: Danny Amendola.  He could have a monster, Wes Welker year with Josh McDaniels at the offensive helm in St. Louis.

Grade: 7 out of 10.  Would be higher if the RB position was a little more stable, along with some instant-production bench players


Team Stonewall
Alex was pitter-pattering about showing up at the draft party.  Luckily, he put his manhood on and came over.  He was prepared with a plan (everyone was way more prepared this season, I noticed), and sweated at every pick.  Literally, I think I saw some pit stains going on over there.  This draft was pretty intense, though.  Those of you out of town missed a tense atmosphere over here.  Alex missed out on Tom Brady for the first time in his Hinckley's House career, much to he chagrin (curse you BJ).  He had the #4 pick though, so at least he would be getting one solid, elite RB.

Key players: Jamaal Charles is slated to have a huge year, and if he does, Alex will benefit big time.  On the other hand, opposing defenses could start stacking the box if Cassel doesn't play well.  Peyton Hillis was another big time RB pickup for Alex; everyone was questioning him because of the ESPN analysis "He seemed to slow down big time by the end of the year", but nobody was picking up on the fact that he had BROKEN RIBS.  That's gotta throw some hesitation into a RB's game.  Mark Ingram should come out as the lead dog in NO, but he is a rookie, and there will be the obvious "can he block / can he keep from fumbling" questions.  Romo was a great pickup because he was #28.  The big question marks on Alex's team this year are his WR.  Brandon Lloyd was #1 last year, but will he be the same with Josh McDaniels passing on 75% of their plays?  Will Kyle Orton be as consistent this year as last year?  Devin Hester is the same way: it all depends on his QB, and everyone here knows how I feel about Jay Cutler.  What makes the WR position even more difficult for Alex is that he doesn't have solid backups on the bench.  Plaxico Burress is an obvious question mark with good potential (and a good showing in the preseason), but Braylon Edwards has done very little since his pro-bowl year a few years back, and should do even worse with Alex Smith throwing to him.  Lee Evans is questionable as well, but if he gets his head screwed on right, has some potential with Joe Flacco throwing to him.  Alex also picked up what could end up the #1 defense in the league this year, if all the big-names mesh well.

Grade: 8 out of 10.  Alex could pull out some great scoring weeks, but at the same time, could run some low ones of his big names don't produce.


The Time is NOW
This year's most improved preseason player award goes to Lewis.  Not only did he do his due diligence for his first few rounds, he had solid backups and sleepers planned out.  He even busted out a fantasy football draft advisor magazine.  I was quite impressed with the level of preparation.  As I've said many times before, Lewis knows the only way to escape my taunting is to prove it on the playing field.  This year he just might rise above the ranks of "dregs".

Key players: I can't believe Vick fell all the way to #15.  If he was available at 18, I would have picked him up in a heartbeat.  Lewis was questionable about picking him up because of Lewis' track record with injuries; I still contend that Vick's upside far outweighs his risk.  Vick wasn't even Lewis' first pick, that honor goes to Andre Johnson.  Johnson is the Adrian Peterson of WRs; he's usually top five, but not always #1.  His RB corps could easily have been mine, since they were players ranked highly on my draft board.  I especially wanted Blount this year, and Bradshaw would have been a great pick.  Mario Manningham kept showing up last year, but he is a #2 receiver, and we'll see if his production remains stable.  TE, defense, and kicker were all solid picks, at the sacrifice of better backups.  Lewis could have used a better backup QB (Stafford?).  If one of his starting WRs goes down, he'll have to search the waiver wires for a replacement unless Bess or Moore shows up.  I did want Ronnie Brown, however; if McCoy goes down in Philly, Brown is a great replacement.

Grade: 7 out of 10.  Vick was the winner for Lewis, but he needs backups that can be instant production.


Air Raid
Big Mac mans up every year for the draft.  Last year was when he drafted during his Grandma's birthday party.  This year he drafted at 10:00 at night without ever raising a fuss.  This year Mcleary was really looking for a solid draft; last years draft was a bit lacking, and the start to the season was incredibly slow.  He picked up, as I've documented before, but it would be better to play from ahead the rest of the season instead of trying to catch up.

Key players: Rodgers was Mcleary's #1 pick, and that should pan out as a solid one.  Rodgers has been solid for a while now; if I were Big Mac, I would cringe just a little bit every time he scrambles for that first down.  He's not exactly made to get hit.  His RB corps is middle-of-the-road; Turner could be great, but he never seems to live completely up to his potential.  Cedric Benson just got out of jail, and Lynch has always been a short yardage type.  I do like his combo of WR and TE, however.  Reggie Wayne will have a great year once Manning gets back on the field, and Mike Williams is an emerging all star out of TB.  Vernon Davis could easily be the #1 receiver in SF this year.  Big Mac also has a bench that has potential.  Michael Bush could be plugged in at any time, and if McFadden goes the injury-prone route again, will be a great fantasy starter.  Woodhead is the same way; he already gets a decent number of carries, and if anything happens to Green-Ellis, he'll be even more valuable.  Donald Driver and Mike Williams (the Seattle one) won't put up big numbers but can easily be plugged in for a bye-week or during an injury.

Grade: 8 out of 10.  While RB may be a question mark, it's not a big one, and Big Mac has a good bench to choose from when injuries rear up.


Brett Favre's Dirty Giblets
Massive Kudos to Colby for his team picture.  If you haven't seen it yet, check it out.  Matches the name very, very well.  Colby was the other side of my trade this year.  He gave up his second and fourth round picks, but got two top-10 picks.  Don't forget he also had the #1 overall pick.  You can always count on Colby to do his pre-draft homework, and he's got an eye for breakout players.  But he also knows how to play it safe, which is what he did this year.

Key players: By playing it safe, I mean he picked Adrian Peterson instead of Arian Foster.  Foster, IF he repeats, will be a monster this year.  AP, however, has shown production every year.  The only risk is that he has been overworked, but there haven't been many signs of that yet.  With #7 he could have picked up Vick, who he thought pretty hard about, but stuck again with the safe road and picked LeSean McCoy.  Colby easily has the best RB stable in the league.  That came with a sacrifice, though: his starting QB is Sam Bradford.  While I think Bradford will have a breakout year, and he was the QB I wanted as a backup, he hasn't proven it yet.  That could be a disaster for Colby, but I doubt it.  Let's not forget Colby also picked up Matt Forte in the third round; that means all three of Colby's RB's were top-ten last year.  Breaking away from Colby's stellar RB group, lets look at the less-than-stellar WR group.  Marques Colston is unpredictable because Brees spreads the ball so well.  Since I don't have any words for Anquan Boldin, I'll just use Colby's immediately following the pick: "I immediately regret that decision".  Luckily, he backed up the weak WR corps with some potential on the bench: Jacoby Ford and Julio Jones.  Both have a lot to prove before they are fantasy starters, but both have the immediate potential to be there.  In other words, there doesn't need to be an injury before they can contribute.  Solid picks at defense and kicker.

Grade: 8 out of 10.  I like Colby's strategy, and I think it will play out, but the only problem area is QB.  If Bradford doesn't shine, Colby has to lean on Colt McCoy as a backup.  What could have been a hole at WR was plugged by a decent bench of WRs.


Disco Inferno
While Nate exposed his rookie status during the draft last year, he showed improvement last year.  See, last year, he based all his picks on their previous production, not factoring in age, team changes, etc.  This year, he did his homework, and looked ahead.  Because of that, he should have a much more productive year than last year.

Key players: Nate's draft looks similar to mine: not a lot of names that stand out in a big way, but not a lot of no-namers either.  He picked up Roethlisburger in the fifth round, enabling him focus on RB and WR in the first four.  Roethlisburger is a symbol of consistency, and finished 14th at QB last year despite his suspension.  Ray Rice should have another solid year, and Mike Wallace has that blowout potential that only DeSean Jackson has had in recent years.  His WR corps is solid, but those receivers still have question marks at QB, so the jury is still out on them.  Nate's bench stands out pretty good as well.  Fred Jackson could have a good year in Buffalo, AJ Green has potential to be a #1 receiver, and Brandon Jacobs is a good goal-line RB who could step up if Bradshaw goes down.  Also, Deion Branch could emerge as a legitimate 1 or 2 receiver.  Only question marks?  Cowboys defense.  But that could quickly change.

Grade: 9 out of 10.  I like this lineup; only one make-or-break (Wallace) and depth on the bench.



Bare RAST
Poor BManSC430 was at work during our draft, and while he tried his best to be present, he still had to lean on the auto draft.  This is also his first year in the league, so I was disappointed I didn't get to analyze his pick-by-pick.  I'm not sure what kind of homework Brandt has done, or how he will turn out, but he has some great ideas for the league.  I'll mention those in a separate post.

Key players: For relying on the auto drafter, he has some solid picks but little depth.  Freeman is poised to have a breakout year at QB.  MJD, if he stays healthy, will have another 1000 yard + season.  He has Roddy White and Miles Austin helming WR, and if Maclin's mystery illness doesn't affect him, he'll have solid production, too.  His only good bench player is Deangello Williams, he could (and probably should) be starting.  Other than that, he just has some "maybes".  AND, to top it off, Brandt got stuck with JAY CUTLER.  Now, this will be an interesting test case.  Cutler can, and will, tank every fantasy team known to man.  But Brandt didn't pick him, he was stuck with him.  The stink is there, but who knows if it will stick.

Grade: 6 out of 10.  Quality starters, no bench.  One or two injuries and this team is toast.


Team Goodrich
Goodrich also was placed on the auto drafter, but didn't have any excuses.  Shame and disappointment!

Key players: Arian Foster was the first pick, and a solid one.  For all the questions about his ability to reproduce last year, I think he'll make it.  Matt Schaub had an off year last year, but still ended as the #7 QB.  If McFadden stays healthy, he'll have a big-production year.  Calvin Johnson should be solid, especially if Stafford stays healthy; the Steelers should be a solid defense like always.  Now, the problem with the auto drafter is usually in the bench.  It doesn't take into account bench starters and sleepers.  Just like Brandts bench isn't quite so hot, same with Goodrich's bench.  Knox and Breaston could make a decent week or two, but not quite likely.  Meachem is in the NO WR mix, and Jones and Cadillac are past their primes and not even starters.

Grade: 6 out of 10, just like Brandt.  The auto drafter seems to pick slightly above average, but not by a lot.



Team Goodrum
Again, shame for not changing your name.  So original.  For all the whining and complaining about not being able to make your first pick, everything turned out.  Johnson signed his contract, he'll start the season, and he'll probably be a top-3 RB.  He's even more dependable than Jamaal Charles, who you were probably going to pick while Johnson was in his contract dispute.  Eric got last place in the league last year, in case nobody was playing attention, so hopefully he's got some motivation.  I think he had a better draft this year than last, but we'll see by the end of the season.

Key players: Solid picks for RBs.  Johnson, Gore, and Greene are all top dogs with little competition for the starting gig.  I don't think anybody is expecting LT to vulture as many carries from Greene this year like he did last year.  Although that's what everyone said last year, too.  WR is weak, though.  The only decent WR is Vincent Jackson; Sidney Rice isn't going anywhere in Seattle, and there's nobody worthwhile on the bench to replace them with.  Antonio Gates / Tony Gonzalez are a solid 1-2 in TE; if either of them are injured, it's a no-brainer to plug the other in.  I like Mark Sanchez as the backup QB, and there's a decent starting RB on the bench in Ryan Matthews.  While I don't condone having two defenses at the same time, the Ravens/Titans combo isn't bad.

Grade: 8 out of 10.  This was a hard one to grade: the only weak spot on the whole team is WR, although it's a major weak spot.  Trade Matthews away for another starting WR and this team is headed somewhere.


Million Dollar Cowboys
BJ can talk, talk, talk.  Let's see how this all plays out.  BJ missed the cut for the league last year, because he wasn't here in time and we were only playing 10.  This year, it's 12, and BJ should bring some competition.  For the record, BJ has said it will be a successful year as long as he beats Alex.  We'll see.  BJ, along with Eric, wins the award for worst whining during the draft; they both kept complaining about how they had to get up early the next day.  The draft only comes once per year: MAN UP.

Key players: This is the clown that stole Tom Brady away from me.  The last person that stole my first pick was Eric, last year when he took Ray Rice.  As I stated in my blog earlier, karma found him eventually.  The same might be said for BJ this year.  But for reals, solid pick.  Steven Jackson is an iffy one.  He turned 29, usually a down year for RBs, and he's had a HUGE workload over the past 5 years.  However, he isn't much of an injury prone RB, and he doesn't really show the usual signs of slowing down.  The biggest risk is that Josh McDaniels likes to throw more often.  I like the WR corps with DeSean Jackson and Santonio Holmes; they are both home run hitters, and can win a game for you all on their own.  Also, solid production in the TE department with Dallas Clark; I didn't pick him because of his age (31), but Tony Gonzalez proved that TEs have a better shelf life than most WRs.  The bench has a little bit of depth; not great, but enough to get you a win or two if necessary.  Berrian is currently the #2 in Minnesota, but Harvin has the whole migraine thing and injuries, and Berrian could easily see a lot of use.  Jacoby Jones is the same; you could start him on any given week and not have to worry about getting shut out.  Not a big fan of Eli Manning or Roy Williams on the bench; rumor out of Chicago is the Williams is in trouble of losing his starting status.  How sad / vindicating (for the Cowboys) would that be?

Grade: 8 out of 10.  Solid starters, decent bench.  This is a team that just needs to cruise the waivers to be solid.


Team WorldDominators
For those of you that don't know, John used to live in Indiana and is, unfortunately for him (at least for fantasy), he's a Colts homer.  This became evident in the draft when Colts players were leaving the board a round or two too early.  By too early, I mean that I was planning on picking up that particular player when it was my turn in the next round (see: Austin Collie).  While there may have been better players available, they were still decent picks.

Key players: The Manning/Collie combo could be lethal, provided both stay healthy.  If Manning throws a 25 yard TD to Collie, you know how many points John will net? About 15.  From one play.  Collie was quickly turning into Manning's favorite target before the concussions last year.  John also came out with a good RB corps in Mendenhall, Green-Ellis, and Mike Tolbert.  He has great RB depth, too: Reggie Bush and Ryan Torain are on the bench, and both have potential this year (especially Bush).  If Manning doesn't start the season, he has Joe Flacco on the bench, and Flacco could easily carry the team a couple of games while waiting for Manning.  John's weak point?  Just like other teams this year, it's WR.  Wes Welker and Austin Collie are both injury prone, and the only WR replacement John has is Steve Smith out of Carolina.

Grade: 8 out of 10.  Again, I like everything but WR.  What's the deal with WR this year?



Final Comments
There you have it.  In a non-biased way, I give myself the highest grade this year (9 out of 10).  I value consistency and insurance protection, and I feel my team has that this year.  I have my obvious starters, followed by bench starters (Tim Hightower, Ochocinco, Sims-Walker) followed by sleepers (Helu and Snelling).

Every team this year has flaws.  The most consistent flaw this year seems to be WR.  I have a feeling that the most often looked-for position on the waivers over the first few weeks is going to be WR.

Great draft this year, by the way.  As always there was lots of participation, and we even breached the draft trading barrier, which was a first for the league.