This will be new this year. I'll take each player at their current pick and weigh the decisions, and ultimately I'll take a stab at who they will pick. In obvious order, I'll start at #1.
Brett Favre's Dirty Giblets
Colby, due to the prize from winning the Championship Game last year, has the first pick. The question is: who will he pick? There are only three real options that I see: Michael Vick, Arian Foster, or Adrian Peterson. The hard part about picking Michael Vick is that this is a strong QB year, and you could easily get a 200 point + QB in the third and fourth round. Just look how low Romo and Roethlisburger have fallen. Arian Foster had a solid year last year, but he's unproven other than that. Peterson is consistent, but with a questionable QB and 300+ carries now for 4 years, how will he do? Will opposing defenses just stack the box since McNabb doesn't have a solid WR corps? The other difficult option for Colby is that he doesn't get to pick again until the 24th and 25th pick. Will there be an elite QB remaining at that point? What about an elite RB?
My Guess: Colby will probably snatch up Vick. His upside is unbelievable, and it will be easy to pick up a replacement QB in the later rounds. Colby can get decent RBs with the 24th and 25th pick, or maybe a RB and a WR.
Team Goodrich
With Vick off the board, the #2 pick suddenly becomes simple. Which of the three top-tier RB's will Goodrich choose, Foster, Peterson, or Charles? I've already documented the upsides and downsides of Foster and Peterson, but what of Charles? Jamaal Charles had a great year last year, led the league in yards-per-carry, and is in the RB prime (Early 20's with few touches the previous year and the clear lead RB for his team).
My Guess: Arian Foster has the best overall chances to repeat his stellar year. He has a great O-line, no RB by committee, and an elite passing game with Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson, which means opposing defenses can't stack the box against him. Goodrich will probably pick up Foster.
Team Goodrum
With Foster and Vick off the board the choices keep becoming simpler. There are only 2 elite RBs remainnig, Peterson and Charles. It's too hard to justify picking up a WR this early, and as stated above, it's too easy to get a good QB later. Eric will settle on one of these two RBs.
My Guess: Eric showed last year with Ray Rice that he prefers young talent with great upside to proven talent that may be on the decline. He will pick Jamaal Charles and hope Charles continues his streak from last year.
Team Stonewall
Right about now, everyone is saying "What about Chris Johnson"? If this were two weeks ago, I would say "He's ok, he'll sign his new contract and everything will be fine." But here we are a little over two weeks before the season starts, and the best we've heard out of the Titans camp is "We had a nice talk, but we're not much further along than before." Even if Chris Johnson misses one or two games, that moves him out of first-round fodder. Like in the NFL, you need your first round pick to produce right now. Which Johnson may not. So for now, I'm pretending like Johnson will be a holdout long enough to damage his draft status. All that leaves in the elite RB category is AP.
My Guess: Alex picks up AP, which at #4, is a pretty good pick.
Disco Inferno
This is the pick where things start to get difficult to judge. The dropoff in RB production is pretty significant, which opens the door to a WR or a QB. ESPN is projecting MJD to go #5, but I just can't justify him at this spot. While MJD is top-notch while healthy, he's rarely fully healthy. Also, he's had a heavy workload in previous years and he doesn't have a decent passing game to take the pressure off. Ray Rice is a pretty good pick, but he was hailed as the next Brian Westbrook, and while he did have a decent year, he didn't have an all-star year. The next RB that ESPN projects is LeSean McCoy at #8, with Aaron Rodgers in between.
My Guess: This one is a shot in the dark, but I'll guess Nate picks up Ray Rice. He has a greater upside than MJD and fewer health concerns.
Air Raid
Big Mac got scarred last year because of Brett Favre. I won the league two seasons ago by drafting Favre in the last few rounds, but Big Mac spent an early pick on him, much to his chagrine. He finally settled on Josh Freeman later in the year, but not soon enough. The reason I bring this up is because this pick is between MJD, Aaron Rodgers, and LeSean McCoy.
My Guess: Mcleary will pick up Rodgers and save himself from the terrible stress of having a terrible QB. It's easier to sleep at night with a QB that has consistently been top 3 ever since Favre left, right? Let's just hope he doesn't scramble too much, because although he's a good running QB, he's not nearly as fast as Vick.
Agmen Alarius
I feel that at this point my pick should be simple. With Rodgers off the board, my choice is between MJD, LeSean McCoy, and a top-tier WR. Why not a QB? Because I've got a pick in the middle of the second round and there should be a number of QBs available to me at that slot. I can also settle for a godo WR in the third round or even later.
My Guess: If these are the players available to me at #7, I'll go with LeSean McCoy. With Vick at the helm his statistics actually increase; I'm guessing this is because most defenses have to play more contain with Vick, which opens up the middle a little bit.
Bare Rast
This pick is a wildcard, because I'm pretty sure this is the first year B-Rant has played fantasy football. Or at least the first year he has played with us. Either way, I'm not sure what direction he'll take. I'm guessing he'll follow somewhere around the lines of "take the best player ESPN projects", but Brandt is also smart enough that I imagine he will do a little bit of homework. Either way, I think this pick goes one of two ways, Chris Johnson or MJD. According to ESPN projections, they will be the #3 and #5 picks still on the board, and both will be hard to pass at #8.
My Guess: I'll say BManSC430 takes MJD. He's finally healthy and not holding out like Chris Johnson. After I pick up McCoy with the #7 pick, there won't be any "elite" RB's left, and MJD presents the best shot.
Million Dollar Cowboys
At this point in the draft is where ESPN projects WRs to begin getting picked up. BJ is going to have to ask: What's more valuable? Should he use this pick for an elite QB? Should he get a second-tier RB? Or should he follow ESPN and pick up a top-tier WR? If it's WR's, ESPN is showing Andre Johnson and Roddy White; he could get Rashard Mendenhall or Frank Gore at RB; or he could break down and get the best QB still available, who is probably Tom Brady.
My Guess: I think BJ will bite the bullet and get Chris Johnson. While he may hold out a few games, he would be a top three pick and can rush for over 2000 yards + receiving.
Dallas the Time is NOW
Last year, there was a major disparity between top-tier WRs and second-tier WRs. This year, there are more WRs that fit the top-tier mold: Greg Jennings, Miles Austin, Dez Bryant, Julio Jones... they each have tremendous potential. That makes it more difficult to spend a first round pick on a WR. However, more teams are using the RB-by-committee approach, making top-tier RBs more scarce. While ESPN is projecting WRs to leave by the #10 pick, does Lewis follow that advice or blaze his own trail?
My Guess: Lewis will opt for a RB, and the only real picks for that at this point are Frank Gore or Rashard Mendenhall. Lewis will go for Mendenhall, who is coming off a good year and who plays for a power-running team.
Team WorldDominators
With more RBs off the board, John is going to be limited in his choices. Will he pick Frank Gore, who is a proven player but has no QB to relieve the pressure? I think this is the point that WRs will begin to be taken. There are questions surrounding which player, though. Andre Johnson is coming off a poor year (by his standards), but he may benefit from having a strong running game. Roddy White should get some competition from Julio Jones. What about Greg Jennings?
My Guess: John will take the best available by prediction, who is Andre Johnson. He should have a better year than last, he has a good QB and RB, and he doesn't face much pressure from other WRs who might otherwise take some of his targets.
Pretty in Pink
Now we come to the last pick in the first round. Poor Michelle is at the end, but benefits from having the first pick in the second round. This gives her quite a bit of flexibility. She can pick up a quick 1-2 with a RB and a WR, or she can get a RB and a QB, or two elite WRs... the list goes on. Since this is the last pick, I'll predict what she will do with both her picks.
My Guess: Michelle will not pick again for 24 picks after these, or into the 30s. That means she will most likely pick up a top-tier QB and probably a RB. The QB will most likely be Tom Brady, and the RB will most likely be Frank Gore. After this she can pursue some WRs in the middle-rounds.
So there you have it. Those are my predictions for what will happen in the first round.
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