Colby's Statistical Analysis

This week was terrible for me, school-wise.  I had tons of homework and projects, but the worst one was my programming class.  I had to make a completely functional program that a bank could use to keep track of members, accounts, and be able to transact on those accounts.  I started programming on Thursday at 3:30 in the afternoon and didn't finish until 4:00 - Friday morning.  Fun.  Moral of the story: I didn't have a lick of extra time this week.  FYI Lewis: that trade would have been decent, except that I just need a TE for the upcoming bye week, so I wouldn't want to give up one of my good RB's for it.  I already have Finley, and he'll be my starter unless he gets injured.

Anywho, I didn't do any recapping or predicting or anything, but luckily, Colby has done some statistical analysis this far into the season.  Here we go...

More indicative of a team’s talent than their W-L record is points scored. The amount of wins a team has isn’t nearly as important as the probability a team has of winning on a week in, week out basis. To contrast that, the best judge of that team’s luck is their points allowed, since it is a crapshoot every week on how much the opposing team is going to score. Now, not to toot my own horn, but if you look at the expanded standings, me and Disco Inferno are the highest scoring teams (I think, I don’t have the league up right now), lending us the highest probability for a win each week. Granted, there will be the off week that Mike Wallace doesn’t catch a bomb or AP gets screwed by playing for the Vikings, but for the most part, points scored shows how successful a team will be. Michelle has allowed more points than the highest scoring team in the league, which means that the average team she has been up against is scoring better than the best team. Teamworlddominators, however, has the most freaking ridiculously low points allowed out of anyone! His points allowed is also much lower than any team’s scoring in the league (if I remember right). So, in contrast to michelle, teamworlddominators has played against teams that have scored, on average, lower than the crappiest team in the league. I think its safe to say, 8 times out of 10, Michelle would work john. However, she seems to have broken a mirror, opened an umbrella indoors, or walked under a ladder, because she is having HORRIBLE luck this year. John better keep hanging on to that rabbit’s foot he’s got (or freaking Wes Welker… ).

Total points scored in league (obviously points allowed is the same)= 4455

Average points scored (and allowed) per team = 371.25

Team breakdown:

Division 1

Agmen Alarius: PS- 372 PA- 310 (about average scoring, luckier than average)

Team Goodrich: PS- 338 PA- 366 (Lower than average scoring, about average luck)

Bare RAST: PS- 354 PA- 377 (Slight lower than average scoring, about average luck)

Team Stonewall: PS- 344 PA- 344 (Lower than average scoring, luckier than average)

Million Dollar Cowboys: PS- 368 PA- 393 (about average scoring, unluckier than average)

Team Goodrum: PS- 354 PA- 384 (slight lower than average scoring, slightly unluckier than average)

Division 2

TeamWorldDominators: PS- 344 PA- 265 (lower than average scoring, ridiculously lucky)

Brett Favre's Dirty Giblets: PS- 429 PA- 415 (Higher than average scoring, unluckier than average)

The Time is NOW: PS- 402 PA- 371 (above average scoring, average luck)

Disco Inferno: PS- 422 PA- 415 (higher than average scoring, unluckier than average)

Pretty in Pink: PS- 382 PA- 432 (slight higher than average scoring, ridiculously unlucky)

Air Raid: PS- 346 PA- 382 (lower than average scoring, slightly unlucky)

Team Rank in Points scored:

1. Brett Favre's Dirty Giblets

2. Disco Inferno

3. The Time is NOW

4. Pretty in Pink

5. Agmen Alarius

6. Million Dollar Cowboys

7. Bare RAST (tie)

7. Team Goodrum (tie)

9. Air Raid

10. Team Stonewall (tie)

10. TeamWorldDominators (tie)

12. Team Goodrich

Team rank by Points Allowed (luck)

1. TeamWorldDominators

2. Agmen Alarius

3. Team Stonewall

4. Team Goodrich

5. The Time is NOW

6. Bare RAST

7. Air Raid

8. Team Goodrum

9. Million Dollar Cowboys

10. Disco Inferno (tie)

10. Brett Favre's Dirty Giblets (tie)

12. Pretty in Pink

Alright, there are the numbers.  I'll just add this at the end: The schedule is set up so that everyone plays everyone at least one time.  That means that by the end of the season, everyone will have been tested against everyone's luck, skill, etc.  Statistically speaking, this should limit the amount of luck (points against) a player has.  On the other hand, the luck factor (points against) is actually the skill factor of another player (points scored).  John has been lucky enough to go against some of the lower teams on the ladder.  All that means is that the second half of the season he should have a tougher strength of schedule.  This bodes really well for the teams that are showing with the least amount of luck.

Good luck in the bye weeks.  I'm glad I get mine mostly over with here: look at my bench.  So many good players on bye week... I even had to pick up Ben Tate, and pray that Foster get's hit by a mack truck on the way to Sunday's game.  That was my best option this week, because I didn't have a single RB on my bench to replace with.  Sad!