First off, everyone should know that the draft has been moved from 8:00 PM this Sunday to 9:00 PM. This was due to enough players not being sure if they would have all Sunday activities over by 8:00. This isn't bad since the draft normally only takes about an hour.
Second, Draft Pick Trading has begun. Colby and I have kicked it off by making a trade. I traded Colby my first round pick and my 9th round pick for his 2nd and 4th. If anyone wants to initiate a trade or if they have questions on a trade, let me know. To trade picks, all you do is 1) log in to Fantasy Football on ESPN, 2) visit the team page of the opponent you want to trade with and 3) click the "propose trade" button near the top. Then you scroll down to the draft pick area and select which picks you're trading. It's pretty easy!
Thursday, August 25, 2011
Draft Pick Guesses
This will be new this year. I'll take each player at their current pick and weigh the decisions, and ultimately I'll take a stab at who they will pick. In obvious order, I'll start at #1.
Brett Favre's Dirty Giblets
Colby, due to the prize from winning the Championship Game last year, has the first pick. The question is: who will he pick? There are only three real options that I see: Michael Vick, Arian Foster, or Adrian Peterson. The hard part about picking Michael Vick is that this is a strong QB year, and you could easily get a 200 point + QB in the third and fourth round. Just look how low Romo and Roethlisburger have fallen. Arian Foster had a solid year last year, but he's unproven other than that. Peterson is consistent, but with a questionable QB and 300+ carries now for 4 years, how will he do? Will opposing defenses just stack the box since McNabb doesn't have a solid WR corps? The other difficult option for Colby is that he doesn't get to pick again until the 24th and 25th pick. Will there be an elite QB remaining at that point? What about an elite RB?
My Guess: Colby will probably snatch up Vick. His upside is unbelievable, and it will be easy to pick up a replacement QB in the later rounds. Colby can get decent RBs with the 24th and 25th pick, or maybe a RB and a WR.
Team Goodrich
With Vick off the board, the #2 pick suddenly becomes simple. Which of the three top-tier RB's will Goodrich choose, Foster, Peterson, or Charles? I've already documented the upsides and downsides of Foster and Peterson, but what of Charles? Jamaal Charles had a great year last year, led the league in yards-per-carry, and is in the RB prime (Early 20's with few touches the previous year and the clear lead RB for his team).
My Guess: Arian Foster has the best overall chances to repeat his stellar year. He has a great O-line, no RB by committee, and an elite passing game with Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson, which means opposing defenses can't stack the box against him. Goodrich will probably pick up Foster.
Team Goodrum
With Foster and Vick off the board the choices keep becoming simpler. There are only 2 elite RBs remainnig, Peterson and Charles. It's too hard to justify picking up a WR this early, and as stated above, it's too easy to get a good QB later. Eric will settle on one of these two RBs.
My Guess: Eric showed last year with Ray Rice that he prefers young talent with great upside to proven talent that may be on the decline. He will pick Jamaal Charles and hope Charles continues his streak from last year.
Team Stonewall
Right about now, everyone is saying "What about Chris Johnson"? If this were two weeks ago, I would say "He's ok, he'll sign his new contract and everything will be fine." But here we are a little over two weeks before the season starts, and the best we've heard out of the Titans camp is "We had a nice talk, but we're not much further along than before." Even if Chris Johnson misses one or two games, that moves him out of first-round fodder. Like in the NFL, you need your first round pick to produce right now. Which Johnson may not. So for now, I'm pretending like Johnson will be a holdout long enough to damage his draft status. All that leaves in the elite RB category is AP.
My Guess: Alex picks up AP, which at #4, is a pretty good pick.
Disco Inferno
This is the pick where things start to get difficult to judge. The dropoff in RB production is pretty significant, which opens the door to a WR or a QB. ESPN is projecting MJD to go #5, but I just can't justify him at this spot. While MJD is top-notch while healthy, he's rarely fully healthy. Also, he's had a heavy workload in previous years and he doesn't have a decent passing game to take the pressure off. Ray Rice is a pretty good pick, but he was hailed as the next Brian Westbrook, and while he did have a decent year, he didn't have an all-star year. The next RB that ESPN projects is LeSean McCoy at #8, with Aaron Rodgers in between.
My Guess: This one is a shot in the dark, but I'll guess Nate picks up Ray Rice. He has a greater upside than MJD and fewer health concerns.
Air Raid
Big Mac got scarred last year because of Brett Favre. I won the league two seasons ago by drafting Favre in the last few rounds, but Big Mac spent an early pick on him, much to his chagrine. He finally settled on Josh Freeman later in the year, but not soon enough. The reason I bring this up is because this pick is between MJD, Aaron Rodgers, and LeSean McCoy.
My Guess: Mcleary will pick up Rodgers and save himself from the terrible stress of having a terrible QB. It's easier to sleep at night with a QB that has consistently been top 3 ever since Favre left, right? Let's just hope he doesn't scramble too much, because although he's a good running QB, he's not nearly as fast as Vick.
Agmen Alarius
I feel that at this point my pick should be simple. With Rodgers off the board, my choice is between MJD, LeSean McCoy, and a top-tier WR. Why not a QB? Because I've got a pick in the middle of the second round and there should be a number of QBs available to me at that slot. I can also settle for a godo WR in the third round or even later.
My Guess: If these are the players available to me at #7, I'll go with LeSean McCoy. With Vick at the helm his statistics actually increase; I'm guessing this is because most defenses have to play more contain with Vick, which opens up the middle a little bit.
Bare Rast
This pick is a wildcard, because I'm pretty sure this is the first year B-Rant has played fantasy football. Or at least the first year he has played with us. Either way, I'm not sure what direction he'll take. I'm guessing he'll follow somewhere around the lines of "take the best player ESPN projects", but Brandt is also smart enough that I imagine he will do a little bit of homework. Either way, I think this pick goes one of two ways, Chris Johnson or MJD. According to ESPN projections, they will be the #3 and #5 picks still on the board, and both will be hard to pass at #8.
My Guess: I'll say BManSC430 takes MJD. He's finally healthy and not holding out like Chris Johnson. After I pick up McCoy with the #7 pick, there won't be any "elite" RB's left, and MJD presents the best shot.
Million Dollar Cowboys
At this point in the draft is where ESPN projects WRs to begin getting picked up. BJ is going to have to ask: What's more valuable? Should he use this pick for an elite QB? Should he get a second-tier RB? Or should he follow ESPN and pick up a top-tier WR? If it's WR's, ESPN is showing Andre Johnson and Roddy White; he could get Rashard Mendenhall or Frank Gore at RB; or he could break down and get the best QB still available, who is probably Tom Brady.
My Guess: I think BJ will bite the bullet and get Chris Johnson. While he may hold out a few games, he would be a top three pick and can rush for over 2000 yards + receiving.
Dallas the Time is NOW
Last year, there was a major disparity between top-tier WRs and second-tier WRs. This year, there are more WRs that fit the top-tier mold: Greg Jennings, Miles Austin, Dez Bryant, Julio Jones... they each have tremendous potential. That makes it more difficult to spend a first round pick on a WR. However, more teams are using the RB-by-committee approach, making top-tier RBs more scarce. While ESPN is projecting WRs to leave by the #10 pick, does Lewis follow that advice or blaze his own trail?
My Guess: Lewis will opt for a RB, and the only real picks for that at this point are Frank Gore or Rashard Mendenhall. Lewis will go for Mendenhall, who is coming off a good year and who plays for a power-running team.
Team WorldDominators
With more RBs off the board, John is going to be limited in his choices. Will he pick Frank Gore, who is a proven player but has no QB to relieve the pressure? I think this is the point that WRs will begin to be taken. There are questions surrounding which player, though. Andre Johnson is coming off a poor year (by his standards), but he may benefit from having a strong running game. Roddy White should get some competition from Julio Jones. What about Greg Jennings?
My Guess: John will take the best available by prediction, who is Andre Johnson. He should have a better year than last, he has a good QB and RB, and he doesn't face much pressure from other WRs who might otherwise take some of his targets.
Pretty in Pink
Now we come to the last pick in the first round. Poor Michelle is at the end, but benefits from having the first pick in the second round. This gives her quite a bit of flexibility. She can pick up a quick 1-2 with a RB and a WR, or she can get a RB and a QB, or two elite WRs... the list goes on. Since this is the last pick, I'll predict what she will do with both her picks.
My Guess: Michelle will not pick again for 24 picks after these, or into the 30s. That means she will most likely pick up a top-tier QB and probably a RB. The QB will most likely be Tom Brady, and the RB will most likely be Frank Gore. After this she can pursue some WRs in the middle-rounds.
So there you have it. Those are my predictions for what will happen in the first round.
Brett Favre's Dirty Giblets
Colby, due to the prize from winning the Championship Game last year, has the first pick. The question is: who will he pick? There are only three real options that I see: Michael Vick, Arian Foster, or Adrian Peterson. The hard part about picking Michael Vick is that this is a strong QB year, and you could easily get a 200 point + QB in the third and fourth round. Just look how low Romo and Roethlisburger have fallen. Arian Foster had a solid year last year, but he's unproven other than that. Peterson is consistent, but with a questionable QB and 300+ carries now for 4 years, how will he do? Will opposing defenses just stack the box since McNabb doesn't have a solid WR corps? The other difficult option for Colby is that he doesn't get to pick again until the 24th and 25th pick. Will there be an elite QB remaining at that point? What about an elite RB?
My Guess: Colby will probably snatch up Vick. His upside is unbelievable, and it will be easy to pick up a replacement QB in the later rounds. Colby can get decent RBs with the 24th and 25th pick, or maybe a RB and a WR.
Team Goodrich
With Vick off the board, the #2 pick suddenly becomes simple. Which of the three top-tier RB's will Goodrich choose, Foster, Peterson, or Charles? I've already documented the upsides and downsides of Foster and Peterson, but what of Charles? Jamaal Charles had a great year last year, led the league in yards-per-carry, and is in the RB prime (Early 20's with few touches the previous year and the clear lead RB for his team).
My Guess: Arian Foster has the best overall chances to repeat his stellar year. He has a great O-line, no RB by committee, and an elite passing game with Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson, which means opposing defenses can't stack the box against him. Goodrich will probably pick up Foster.
Team Goodrum
With Foster and Vick off the board the choices keep becoming simpler. There are only 2 elite RBs remainnig, Peterson and Charles. It's too hard to justify picking up a WR this early, and as stated above, it's too easy to get a good QB later. Eric will settle on one of these two RBs.
My Guess: Eric showed last year with Ray Rice that he prefers young talent with great upside to proven talent that may be on the decline. He will pick Jamaal Charles and hope Charles continues his streak from last year.
Team Stonewall
Right about now, everyone is saying "What about Chris Johnson"? If this were two weeks ago, I would say "He's ok, he'll sign his new contract and everything will be fine." But here we are a little over two weeks before the season starts, and the best we've heard out of the Titans camp is "We had a nice talk, but we're not much further along than before." Even if Chris Johnson misses one or two games, that moves him out of first-round fodder. Like in the NFL, you need your first round pick to produce right now. Which Johnson may not. So for now, I'm pretending like Johnson will be a holdout long enough to damage his draft status. All that leaves in the elite RB category is AP.
My Guess: Alex picks up AP, which at #4, is a pretty good pick.
Disco Inferno
This is the pick where things start to get difficult to judge. The dropoff in RB production is pretty significant, which opens the door to a WR or a QB. ESPN is projecting MJD to go #5, but I just can't justify him at this spot. While MJD is top-notch while healthy, he's rarely fully healthy. Also, he's had a heavy workload in previous years and he doesn't have a decent passing game to take the pressure off. Ray Rice is a pretty good pick, but he was hailed as the next Brian Westbrook, and while he did have a decent year, he didn't have an all-star year. The next RB that ESPN projects is LeSean McCoy at #8, with Aaron Rodgers in between.
My Guess: This one is a shot in the dark, but I'll guess Nate picks up Ray Rice. He has a greater upside than MJD and fewer health concerns.
Air Raid
Big Mac got scarred last year because of Brett Favre. I won the league two seasons ago by drafting Favre in the last few rounds, but Big Mac spent an early pick on him, much to his chagrine. He finally settled on Josh Freeman later in the year, but not soon enough. The reason I bring this up is because this pick is between MJD, Aaron Rodgers, and LeSean McCoy.
My Guess: Mcleary will pick up Rodgers and save himself from the terrible stress of having a terrible QB. It's easier to sleep at night with a QB that has consistently been top 3 ever since Favre left, right? Let's just hope he doesn't scramble too much, because although he's a good running QB, he's not nearly as fast as Vick.
Agmen Alarius
I feel that at this point my pick should be simple. With Rodgers off the board, my choice is between MJD, LeSean McCoy, and a top-tier WR. Why not a QB? Because I've got a pick in the middle of the second round and there should be a number of QBs available to me at that slot. I can also settle for a godo WR in the third round or even later.
My Guess: If these are the players available to me at #7, I'll go with LeSean McCoy. With Vick at the helm his statistics actually increase; I'm guessing this is because most defenses have to play more contain with Vick, which opens up the middle a little bit.
Bare Rast
This pick is a wildcard, because I'm pretty sure this is the first year B-Rant has played fantasy football. Or at least the first year he has played with us. Either way, I'm not sure what direction he'll take. I'm guessing he'll follow somewhere around the lines of "take the best player ESPN projects", but Brandt is also smart enough that I imagine he will do a little bit of homework. Either way, I think this pick goes one of two ways, Chris Johnson or MJD. According to ESPN projections, they will be the #3 and #5 picks still on the board, and both will be hard to pass at #8.
My Guess: I'll say BManSC430 takes MJD. He's finally healthy and not holding out like Chris Johnson. After I pick up McCoy with the #7 pick, there won't be any "elite" RB's left, and MJD presents the best shot.
Million Dollar Cowboys
At this point in the draft is where ESPN projects WRs to begin getting picked up. BJ is going to have to ask: What's more valuable? Should he use this pick for an elite QB? Should he get a second-tier RB? Or should he follow ESPN and pick up a top-tier WR? If it's WR's, ESPN is showing Andre Johnson and Roddy White; he could get Rashard Mendenhall or Frank Gore at RB; or he could break down and get the best QB still available, who is probably Tom Brady.
My Guess: I think BJ will bite the bullet and get Chris Johnson. While he may hold out a few games, he would be a top three pick and can rush for over 2000 yards + receiving.
Dallas the Time is NOW
Last year, there was a major disparity between top-tier WRs and second-tier WRs. This year, there are more WRs that fit the top-tier mold: Greg Jennings, Miles Austin, Dez Bryant, Julio Jones... they each have tremendous potential. That makes it more difficult to spend a first round pick on a WR. However, more teams are using the RB-by-committee approach, making top-tier RBs more scarce. While ESPN is projecting WRs to leave by the #10 pick, does Lewis follow that advice or blaze his own trail?
My Guess: Lewis will opt for a RB, and the only real picks for that at this point are Frank Gore or Rashard Mendenhall. Lewis will go for Mendenhall, who is coming off a good year and who plays for a power-running team.
Team WorldDominators
With more RBs off the board, John is going to be limited in his choices. Will he pick Frank Gore, who is a proven player but has no QB to relieve the pressure? I think this is the point that WRs will begin to be taken. There are questions surrounding which player, though. Andre Johnson is coming off a poor year (by his standards), but he may benefit from having a strong running game. Roddy White should get some competition from Julio Jones. What about Greg Jennings?
My Guess: John will take the best available by prediction, who is Andre Johnson. He should have a better year than last, he has a good QB and RB, and he doesn't face much pressure from other WRs who might otherwise take some of his targets.
Pretty in Pink
Now we come to the last pick in the first round. Poor Michelle is at the end, but benefits from having the first pick in the second round. This gives her quite a bit of flexibility. She can pick up a quick 1-2 with a RB and a WR, or she can get a RB and a QB, or two elite WRs... the list goes on. Since this is the last pick, I'll predict what she will do with both her picks.
My Guess: Michelle will not pick again for 24 picks after these, or into the 30s. That means she will most likely pick up a top-tier QB and probably a RB. The QB will most likely be Tom Brady, and the RB will most likely be Frank Gore. After this she can pursue some WRs in the middle-rounds.
So there you have it. Those are my predictions for what will happen in the first round.
Saturday, August 20, 2011
The Contenders
Now that the 12th man has joined the league, it's time to do a quick bio on the contenders this year. There are two changes from last year: First, Andrew Kretchmer has left the league. As noted in the recap, he had a solid year because of the WR set of Greg Jennings and Dawyne Bowe, and Matt Forte had a great year. He was the league leader in points (over 1400), so his production will be missed. The second big change is that we expanded the league to 12. This should make things more competitive; not only will there be two more bodies, but that means high-scoring players will be scarce.
Patrick Hinckley; Agmen Alarius
Yes, this is me. I've been the commissioner of this league for three years now. I'll be the one behind the blog every week, usually multiple times per week. I'm from Plano, although right now I'm living in Provo going to BYU. Everyone that is in this league knows me somehow, whether it's friends growing up (Alex, Lewis, Eric, etc), work friends (Justin and Colby), or friends I've made up here (Nate). I've been married for 2 1/2 years to Michelle, who also happens to be the only girl allowed in the league.
Michelle Hinckley; Pretty in Pink
Michelle has been in this league since its founding. You'll notice Eric makes constant reference that Pretty in Pink is my "second" team; he only does this since he lost to her twice last year and it's the only way he can sleep at night. Michelle loves reading Harry Potter, Twilight, watching anything Disney/Pixar related, and loves to bake. When asking if Michelle would like something, you have to ask: Would a five year old girl like this? If the answer to that question is yes, than Michelle would like it too.
Alex Goodrum; Team Stonewall
Alexander Royal Stonewall Jackson Goodrum, to be exact. He's also been in this league since its founding. Alex has the fantasy football record of most points scored without making it to the winners bracket. Owie Wowie lives in Provo right now, but he's originally from Plano, and "played football" at Dixie for two years. He's married to Tara, who keeps his style phresh and his toes clean. He has a nasty foot with some screws in it and loves driving into ditches full of snow. Although he looks like Elvis, he will tell you that he does not look like Elvis, although he really thinks he does look like Elvis, and loves that fact that he does look like Elvis. He was one of three people in the entire world that loved his dog Mopsy before she was benevolently removed from this world; not for her good, but for the good of humanity.
Lewis Goodrum; The Time is Now
Lewis is Alex's brother and also one of the leagues original founders. Lewis has found himself at the butt-end of most jokes; he also knows the only way to cure this plague is to win some fantasy football games. Which is why his team is named "The Time is Now". Despite his v-neck shirts, gold chains, and meat (chest hair) hangin out of his shirt, we are rather fond of Lewis, which is what makes beating him in fantasy football all the sweeter. Lewis lives in Provo right now, attends BYU, and is married to Kara, who is one of the few Texans who doesn't actually like the state. He just got himself his dream car growing up: a Cadillac CTS. Oh, and his internet doesn't work right now. I should see how that is going...
Eric Goodrum; Team Goodrum
Eric was a newcomer to the league last year, and promptly filled that role by A) Stealing my first draft choice, and B) getting last place. Karma will always find you. Eric is the oldest brother of Alex and Lewis, and lives in Prosper, Texas. He's a firefighter and has 2 or 3 kids... I can't remember and I'm too lazy to look it up or call someone to find out. He's married to Maribel, whose Colombian (if I remember right) and Erics best hope of growing up someday. Lucky for Eric this year, since he was last place last year, even 4 wins will be an improvement. Maybe he can spend some of that legendary free time at the Fire Station cruising the waver-wire and doing some pre-draft homework.
Brannon Killgo; Million Dollar Cowboys
BJ is one of only two players who have never been in the league. This will be his inaugural season, and I'm sure he is by himself thinking he will end up at the top. Despite looking 40-something, BJ is in his late twenties. He's single, ladies! BJ is the cousin of Alex/Lewis/Eric, which is how he finds his way into the league. I'm really not sure what he does these days: singing, acting, something like that. Being a Killgo, BJ is a natural-born talker/persuader, and has "a guy" for everything that needs to be done. Need a computer hacked? BJ's got a guy for that. Need some marijuana? (Strictly for medical purposes, of course) BJ's got a guy for that. Need some fantasy football advice? We'll see about that...
Brandt Rast; Bare RAST
Brandt is the second newcomer to the league, although just like BJ, we have known him forever. This picture is a bit deceiving, because it implies that Brandt is athletic or coordinated in some way. Don't be fooled! Luckily, fantasy football requires no such athletic talent, but it remains to be seen what Brandt will produce this year. As seen on his shirt, Brandt spent too long among the Canadiens, but he returned to us, largely intact. He lives in the charming town of Roberts, Idaho in a house that that was built while Napolean was still alive (almost, no exaggeration) Brandt has been married for one year to Allyce, and other than Eric, will be the only player in the league with a kiddo. Which is about the scariest thing ever, for the kid, and society as a whole. Brandt goes to BYU-I, and has his eyes on optometry (haha! Get it?)
Colby Nelson; Brett Favre's Dirty Giblets
Colby is another perennial contender in the league, and has finished top four each year. He's also our current champion, and one day before this season is over, I'll have a trophy made so that he can hold it until I win it back again. Colby is not a redneck nor does he live in the South, although he makes a pretty convincing redneck southerner when he wants to try. He did go to Ft. Worth on his mission, so at least he is versed in redneck lore. He hails from all over, but he claims Florida as his own, and his favorite team is the Jaguars (poor soul). Colby is married to Rashell, who is half-mexican but as white as Eric's wife is. Which is to say that they are exotic in look, only. Colby wanted to name his team as offensive as possible, finally settling on his current team name.
Andrew Mcleary; Air Raid
Andrew Mcleary (AKA Big Mac, or just Mcleary) has also been in the league since its founding. Big Mac grew up in Plano with all the gang, and even beat a big black kid named Biggie in an eating contest (He ate a triple-triple and fries from Whataburger in something like three minutes). Mcleary is all about anything football, which is why I invited him into the league as soon as it opened. He's currently in the Air Force, stationed somewhere on the east coast (I think South Carolina). Big Mac makes good rap mix-tape CD's, is stellar at sand-volleyball, and loves long walks on the beach.
Nate Kartchner; Disco Inferno
Nate has promised his sophomore season will be more successful than his freshman, and I'm inclined to believe him. Nate's first-ever fantasy football season was last year, and I'm proud to say that I've hooked him. Nate lives in Provo, like half of us, except that he has a real job and doesn't go to school anymore. Nate has a yellow Honda S2000 and I'm about to be his neighbor. Nate is the most normal person I know who has a deep understanding of comic books / cartoon lore. He's married to Katy Batemen, served a mission in Texas, and because of these things, is bound to live there.
Justin Goodrich; Team Goodrich
Justin is one of the two teams that needs to change their names (Team Goodrum and Goodrich? That's original. I guess that's why you have the same four-letter abbreviation: good). Goodrich is a natural Utohnian, living in Spanish Fork and working in Heber. This happy go luck chap almost missed last year's draft, but thinking quickly, I used the America First internal call transfer system to track down his work cell phone and prevent him from missing one of the biggest days of the year. He's got a couple of kiddos himself, and he also speaks Korean. Speaking of Korean, one of his favorite people in the world is an old Korean woman who speaks no English and refers to people she doesn't like by pretending she has devil horns.
John Lydiksen; Team WorldDominators
John is the younger brother of Michelle. A couple years back, when the league was just a fledgling newborn, I invited all three of the Lydiksen brothers to be part of it. Of the three, John was the only player who consistently played, and if I remember right, he rode Chris Johnson the entire year. John lives in Oceanside, CA and is in his senior year of high school. John is about the coolest cat I know, which is to say he doesn't care about anything too much, which is to say he's awesome.
Well, that should do it for the introductions this year. I believe this year is going to be the best year for fantasy football. Not only do we have 12 competitive people, but I've specifically chosen people who are competitive, smart, and will play each week (FYI - a surefire death wish out of the league is to forget to replace your players on bye-week, or injured players). I've always toyed with the idea of kicking out the last place player each year, since there are still about four people who still want in the league, but as long as everyone plays each week, I've never pulled the trigger on that idea. Introductions aside, I'll post my thoughts on the draft pick order (It's set, by the way. Pull up your team home page to see where you stand).
Patrick Hinckley; Agmen Alarius
Michelle Hinckley; Pretty in Pink
Alex Goodrum; Team Stonewall
Lewis Goodrum; The Time is Now
Eric Goodrum; Team Goodrum
Brannon Killgo; Million Dollar Cowboys
Brandt Rast; Bare RAST
Colby Nelson; Brett Favre's Dirty Giblets
Andrew Mcleary; Air Raid
Nate Kartchner; Disco Inferno
John Lydiksen; Team WorldDominators
Well, that should do it for the introductions this year. I believe this year is going to be the best year for fantasy football. Not only do we have 12 competitive people, but I've specifically chosen people who are competitive, smart, and will play each week (FYI - a surefire death wish out of the league is to forget to replace your players on bye-week, or injured players). I've always toyed with the idea of kicking out the last place player each year, since there are still about four people who still want in the league, but as long as everyone plays each week, I've never pulled the trigger on that idea. Introductions aside, I'll post my thoughts on the draft pick order (It's set, by the way. Pull up your team home page to see where you stand).
Tuesday, August 16, 2011
What you've all been waiting for: last year's recap!
As the title says, this is a big part of every year. We'll run through a quick recap, team by team, on how the previous year went. We'll start with key players picked up in the draft, and we'll include key players picked up off the waivers. Without further ado, let's begin.
Imperator Militis (Patrick)
Personnel
I suppose I'll start with myself. In the draft, I picked up MJD with my first pick, Peyton Manning with my second, and Calvin Johnson with my third. MJD didn't pan out particularly well in the first few weeks; ultimately he would get 1300 yards rushing, 350 yards receiving and 7 touchdowns, good for nearly 200 points. Manning ended up pretty solid despite his INT total at the end of the year and was by far my best player. Calvin Johnson ended up being nothing more than trade bait, especially due to his slow start last year. I should have accepted the first trade offered (Goodrich offered Mike Williams (TB) and Michael Turner (ATL). As it turns out, that would have been an awesome trade. Instead I settled a few weeks later for Rashard Mendenhall (PIT) and Visanthe Shiancoe (MIN). The Mendenhall pickup was good, but not great, but I felt like I came out on top since Megatron continued his ups and downs. The rest of my draft was terrible: Knowshown Moreno (DEN) (Injured half the season), Ronnie Brown (MIA) was worthless, Jeremy Maclin (PHI) was decent, Percy Harvin (MIN) was not great, Joe Flacco (BAL) didn't get much time at QB since Manning was so solid, and the rest were just as forgettable. I drafted Dez Bryant late in the draft, and just when he was starting to get some solid production (Don't forget our league values punt and kickoff returns) he got injured. I wasted Joe Flacco on a trade for Randy Moss. Finally, the only decent waiver pickup I had all season was Danny Amendola (STL), and I sat on him too long before I began starting him.
Season
I started decently enough, 2-2, and then I went on a terrific five-game streak. This was the highlight of my season since it included an incredible thrashing of PapaKareGoods (Lewis) when only one of his players even broke double digits. The game ended 122-48. I had the thrilling tie game against Goodrich, where I won since I was the home team, immediately followed by a one point victory over the total-points leader, Kretchmer. I finished the season 9-4, which considering my so-so draft and little success through trades and the waiver-wires, was pretty decent.
Post-Season
Having finished in first place, I was included in the winners bracket. I got to face up against the number four overall, Pretty in Pink (Michelle). I was worried about the matchup, since Michelle was racking up decent point totals each week. My QB and RB's played well, but Michelle had DeSean Jackson (PHI) get 29 points during the first week and the Saints defense scored 22, putting her ahead by nearly 30. The second week wasn't much better as Knowshon Moreno (DEN) scored a goose egg, my kicker got -2, and MJD (JAC) managed a measly 6 points. Michelle won 215-181, leaving me out of the championship game. Kretchmer would end up beating me 222-180, leaving me in fourth place overall.
Pretty In Pink (Michelle)
Personnel
I'll say the same thing I've said every year in fantasy football: Michelle may ask my advice from time to time, but she manages and runs her own team on a weekly basis. She also cruises the waiver wires for pickups and pays attention to sports news. Despite being the only girl in the league she has been in the winner's bracket two seasons in a row.
Michelle's draft went very well. Her first four picks were: Drew Brees (NO), Miles Austin (DAL), DeSean Jackson (PHI), and LeSean McCoy (PHI). When you count Ahmad Bradshaw (NYG) that she picked up in the 9th round, she had 5 players score 170 points+. Her crowning achievement on the waivers was, of course, Michael Vick, although this pickup was limited because Drew Brees was having a great year as well. In all, Michelle had a solid draft, and picked up the single best waiver pickup of the year.
Season
Michelle started the season very well, cruising to an 8-2 start, and keeping in first place during most of that time. She continued the strange Lewis-Kryptonite from the year before; Lewis accounts for more than 50% of her losses during her fantasy football career, despite finishing in last and second-to-last place. She ended the season terribly, with Ahmad Bradshaw playing hurt and DeSean Jackson with concussion issues. She lost the last three games, ended 8-5, which was good enough for fourth place.
Post-Season
As was mentioned above, Michelle trounced me in the first round. A healthy DeSean Jackson, a killer Michael Vick, and the Saints killer defense all added up and put her into the championship game. The first round of the championship game was disappointing, with Michelle only scraping together 75 points; the second round of the championship game was a brutal, terrible, nasty slaughter. Michelle's problem was that all of her good players were on championship contenders who had cemented their place in the standings; she had to play Sam Bradford and Marion Barber, of all people. She ended that week with just 37 points and cleaned her makeup off with her own tears.
One Man Wolfpack (Colby)
Personnel
Colby started the season with the 9th pick, and his draft choices reflect it. His first pick was Andre Johnson (HOU), who ended up not even being the leading WR, Shonn Green (NYJ), a pick that deserves no comment, Cedric Benson (CHI), Matt Schaub (HOU), Jermichael Finley (GB) who got injured early, Pierre Garcon (IND) who had a terrible year... you get the point. Not a single name jumps out at you as a this-guy-will-win-games type. His only decent waiver pickup was Chris Ivory (NO) who promptly hurt his hamstring.
Season
Colby started the season as terrible as his draft would suggest. After 7 games he was 2-5, scoring low, and not looking to make it into the winners bracket. Finally, Mike Wallace (PIT) turned on the jets, and Colby started to pick up. He finished the season with four wins, going from 4-5 to 8-5 and securing a spot in the winners bracket.
Colby's situation needs more evaluation. His draft was not good, he was not given a high draft pick (9th), his waiver pickups were questionable. How did he go from a slow start, to a fast finish, to an ultimate victory in the league? Colby always managed to put together the best team available to him each week. Even though he had limited choices, he managed to insert the best TE, defense, kicker, second WR and RB, etc. He averaged 5 players in the double digits each week during his wild finale, and never depended solely on one player. Let this be a lesson that it doesn't take a high draft pick or a standout waiver pickup to win fantasy football
Post-Season
Colby was a sure-loss in the making. He was playing against Kretchmer, who was the total points champion in the league. Colby was the lowest scoring player in the winners bracket. Kretchmer's team had a meltdown in the first week, with Dwayne Bowe getting shut out, Antonio Gates playing injured, the Bears defense giving up 37 points, and his kicker not even getting a PAT. Colby's team didn't fare much better, with Chris Ivory getting hurt early in the game. Although Kretchmer's team revived a bit for the second round, Colby put together another outstanding collection, with 6 of his players scoring in double digits. Goliath was conquered.
As has been documented, Michelle's team was ahead by 8 points going into the final week of fantasy football, and the second round of the championship game. Then the meltdown ensued, but let's not overlook the fact that Colby, yet again, had 6 players score in double figures. Colby's success this last year was pure fantasy football at its best.
Team Pepelapue (Kretchmer)
With Kretchmer out of the league this year, I won't dwell too long on his team. Just let it be known that he had a solid draft, and he scored big time on the emergence of Dwayne Bowe and the revival of Matt Forte. Kretchmer's downfall was a shaky bench, which made itself obvious at the end of the season. A good draft can only take you so far, but eventually you have to have the second string guys that can come in and win a couple of games
Team Goodrich (Justin Goodrich)
Personnel
Goodrich had a draft full of hindsight *ouches*. For instance, drafting Randy Moss in the second round. Or Beanie Wells (ARI) in the third round. Or drafting Steve Smith (CAR) in the fourth round. You get the point. You'll notice lacking in the first four rounds was a decent QB; Goodrich solved this by unloading Randy Moss on me and getting Joe Flacco (BAL) in return. While Flacco was not great by any means, he was a solid 15 point QB each week, which was better than Chad Henne (MIA) was producing. Where Goodrich really made his money last year was his pickup of Peyton Hillis. Who knew he would be worth over 200 points? And of course, it needs to be pointed out that he nearly traded away two of his three most valuable assets to me at the beginning of the year: Mike Williams (TB) and Michael Turner (ATL). It was only my own stupidity that kept that from coming to fruition.
Season
Where you consistently see solid fantasy football players do well is at the end of seasons. At the beginning of the season even the ESPN auto-ranking program can carry you to several wins. However, near the end of seasons is when the pickups, trades, and drops start to show their foresight. In the case of Goodrich, after a 3-4 start, he started making his playoff push. He won 4 in a row and looked destined for the coveted winners bracket. The wheels came off afterwards, however. Weeks 12 and 13 looked solid, but Goodrich was narrowly beat out. In Week 12, Peyton Hillis cruised to 38 points, but none of the peripheral positions (D, TE, K, etc) could produce a double digit score. In Week 13, Peyton Hillis broke down and couldn't carry the team anymore. The final game was a big one, with the winner between Goodrich and Colby leading them to the winner's bracket; Colby ended up winning by two points, sending Goodrich to the consolation bracket.
Post-Season
With Goodrich begins the consolation ladder, and for the sake of time, I will not include many details. Suffice it to say that Goodrich came out as the winner of a tie, 183-183 against Alex, sending Goodrich to the consolation championship game. He managed to do it with Kyle Orton netting him -2 points for one game and only scoring 59 points for an entire round. For the final game of the consolation championship game, Goodrich was pitted against Mcleary. Goodrich finally put together a solid game in Week 17, with all but one of his players reaching double digits; he also gambled on Tim Tebow who netted him 25 points. Cudos, my friend.
Air Raid (Andrew Mcleary)
Personnel
Big Mac started the draft with a solid one-two RB punch: Adrian Peterson (MIN) and Rashard Mendenhall (PIT). The wheels came off a bit with Brandon Marshall (MIA) and C.J. Spiller (BUF). Finally, a death-knell to Big Mac's draft, came Brett Favre (MIN) in the fifth round. I'm not sure if Air Raid ever really recovered from that one. Mcleary picked up Jason Witten (DAL) early, and the TE acquisition paid off: Witten was a consistent producer. Big Mac picked up Mike Tolbert (SD) early in the season, and although he did not play him as often as he should have, Tolbert was a good pickup. Soon after, Big Mac pulled the trigger on a big trade; He gave Mendenhall to Alex in exchange for Steven Jackson (STL). Although it was largely a wash, Big Mac came out slightly on top. Finally, on 22 Oct 2010, Andrew Mcleary sealed his fate: he picked up the sour and stink that is... Jay Cutler. Despite whatever points Jay Cutler may bring in the QB position, he will always sink the rest of your team. Lewis did it two years ago, Big Mac did it last year, and it's just a question of when someone will pick him up this year.
Season
Big Mac started the season to a dismal 1-5. This was mostly the showing of a difficult draft: While AP consistently produced, along with Mendenhall (and later Jackson), the rest of the draft panned out so poorly that there wasn't much hope. But as I've been saying all along, the true fantasy football players start to show near the end of the season. Big Mac made the trades, watched the match ups, and clawed his way to a 7-6 finish. While it was not good enough to make the winners bracket, it was good enough to proof Big Mac has the heart of a champion and could sleep easy at night knowing, without a doubt, that he was a true man.
Post-Season
Big Mac played Lewis for the middle-of-the-pack, the 7 seed versus the 8 seed. Big Mac caught a lucky break with the Dolphins defense netting him 22 points. Jason Witten sealed the win with 18 coming from the TE spot. Big Mac put Lewis away for good in the second round, sending him to the consolation championship game against Goodrich. Air Raid put up a good fight in the final game, but ultimately was betrayed by his team: the final round included 3 0's, a negative score, and only 10 combined points from 3 RB's. Still, Big Mac proved that anything is possible, even from a terrible start.
Team Stonewall (Alex Goodrum)
Personnel
Alex had a great draft, although it wasn't quite so obvious on draft day. He started with Steven Jackson (STL), Tom Brady (NE), and Jamaal Charles (KC). He reached for a TE far too early, picking up Tony Gonzalez (ATL) in the fourth round. Where Alex lucked out was getting Arian Foster (HOU) in the 8th round, LT (NYJ) a few rounds later, and getting Vincent Jackson (SD) with his final draft pick. Arian Foster, of course, ending up being the #1 RB last year, LT had a revival, and Vincent Jackson produced solidly once he was able to play in the league again. Brady threw for 34 TD's and only 4 INT's. Noticeably missing from the draft was a solid WR, and Alex wasn't able to pick one up until late in the season, trading Rashard Mendenhall (PIT) to me for Calvin Johnson (DET).
Season
Alex is always one of the leading total points teams, and yet he never seems to make the winners cut. This season was no different: Alex was the 2nd highest scoring team, 200 full points ahead of third place, and yet he still ended the season in 7th place. How is this possible? Alex suffers from feast vs famine syndrome. He recorded games of 126, 122, 113, 110, 124, 104, and 124 points. On the other hand, he recorded games of 68, 81, 88, 86, and 83. While it's hard to put a finger on the exact cause of the problem, it seems as though Alex might over think his match ups: his second and third RB/WR's always seem to be the wrong one (Alex has the highest scoring bench, easily), his TE's never produce, and his defenses never put up double digits. Alex was never able to string along a winning streak until the end; even then, it was three games and promptly followed with a loss to end the season.
Post-Season
Alex started the post-season as the sixth seed, giving him a good shot at the consolation bracket's championship game. As was mentioned above, this ended up being a close, competitive game (As you would expect from the 5 and 6 seed). He eventually lost to Goodrich, which was technically a tie, but the tie goes to the home team. This crushing defeat sent him out of the consolation bracket's championship game. Alex promptly recovered, put together a killer lineup, and destroyed Nate two weeks in a row. If Alex had somehow made his way into the winner's bracket, his Week 16-17 total of 236 would have won him the title; instead, he wasn't able to play consistently during the regular season, falling into 7th place.
Disco Inferno (Nate Kartchner)
Personnel
I gave Nate a pretty good score on draft day last year for a reason: Not many risky moves and solid picks. Frank Gore (SF) was a good starter, Tony Romo (DAL) seemed like a good one, Larry Fitzgerald (ARI) and Roddy White (ATL) were solid starters. After this, the remaining picks didn't get much praise, but it turns out Darren Mcfadden in the 13th round was a huge steal, since he exceeded the 200 point mark. Nate even made a great mid-season pickup in LaGarrette Blount. Although there were no trades for Nate and little waiver-wire activity, Nate had all the personnel to make a deep fantasy football run.
Season
If he had great personnel, then why did he end up in 8th place? For starters, nobody could have predicted Romo playing terrible in the first six games and then being out for the season. Nate never recovered from this, moving on to different QB's the rest of the season. Shaun Hill (DET), Mark Sanchez (NYJ), Chad Henne (MIA), and even David Garrard (JAC) were tossed around. Also, Nate pulled some rookie mistakes: Not changing defenses based on opponent, keeping Brent Celek as TE even though Vick doesn't know what a check-down is, never knowing quite which RB/WR to put in, etc. It all adds up to a never-above-.500-season. And then, to make matters worse, throw in a three game losing streak to finish things off; Nate ended the regular season at 4-8.
Post-Season
While things never panned out in the regular season, the post-season was different for Nate. Mcfadden decided to show he could run, and broke out for 42 points. Also, in week 15, all of Nate's team, except one, decided to score more than 15 points. Nate trounced Eric, making sure the bottom-of-the-bucket honors would not be his on his inaugural season. Fortunate would not continue, and, as has been noted above, Alex did the trouncing in the final game.
Dallas PapaKareGoods (Lewis and Kara Goodrum)
Personnel
Lewis has complained about injuries, and at least for this last year, he is correct. Deangello Williams (CAR), his second pick? Ryan Grant (GB), his third pick? Dallas Clark (IND), his fourth pick? Austin Collie (IND), his sixth pick? Even the players that didn't get injured ended up being worthless. His backup QB, potentially a good trade chip? Oh, Kevin Kolb (PHI), who didn't get much playing time behind Vick. If it weren't for Aaron Rodgers and his 275+ points, Lewis' team would have been a complete disaster.
Although it should be noted that a little research could have produced enough waiver-claims to fill out his team, it should also be noted that Lewis tried. Lewis had the most acquisitions in the league last year (40), making him one of the most active players. Lewis just couldn't seem to catch a break.
Season
Lewis at one point lost 8 in a row. 8. That's terrible. To his everlasting credit, he continued his tradition of taking out revenge on Michelle's teams. 50% of his wins came against Michelle. Granted, it was only 2 of 4 wins, but it's significant because Lewis only won 2 games the year before, and both of them were against Michelle. Will that continue into this year? It should be noted that despite this dismal performance, Lewis was not last place. That honor goes to another Goodrum, Eric.
Post-Season
Lewis got bounced into the Loser's game by losing to Big Mac in the first playoff game. This meant that another loss would result in 2 straight years of fantasy football shame. Ultimately, Lewis stopped the hemorrhaging, and beat Eric by a razor-thin margin of 12 points. While this might not seem like much to cheer for, few people know what was on the line in this game.
Team Goodrum (Eric Goodrum)
Personnel
Last and most definitely least, we come to Eric. Eric upset me something terrible on draft day: Ray Rice (BAL) was listed as the 5th best player. Eric had the third pick and I had the fourth. I thought, for sure, that I would be able to pick up Ray Rice with my pick. I was predicting that he would have a Brian Westbrook style breakout year. When Eric picked him up ahead of me, I was dumbfounded, angry, and in a vengeful spirit. But we'll let bygones be bygones, especially since Rice didn't produce like I expected. Other than Rice and Phillip Rivers (SD), Eric had a dismal draft. He gambled on Ryan Matthews (SD), picked Joseph Addai (IND) in the fourth round despite questions about his starter status, nabbed Wes Welker (NE) in the fifth despite his recent surgery, got a kicker in the 6th round, and then the devastating finale: he drafted Jay Cutler. People, do not think this Jay Cutler thing is a coincidence. Lewis had him two years ago when he sunk that team, Eric had him last year from the get-go and Cutler managed to sink this team. Despite activity on the waiver-wire and a laughable trade attempt (MJD for Ryan Matthews?), Eric could never rinse the stink. He was sunk.
Season
While the honors of the longest losing streak goes to Lewis, the most losses total goes to Eric. Phillip Rivers and Ray Rice always produced, but none of the remaining players, be it WR, RB, TE, D, or even K, could score in the double digits more than once (I think Wes Welker might have, late in the season). The highlight of Eric's season was... was... Ok, maybe there wasn't a highlight. The man did not score over 100 points once in the season. 66% of his wins came against the #9 player in the league. Moral of the story: on draft day, conventional wisdom is conventional wisdom because it's been tested. Don't pick up a defense, TE, K, or a rookie in the first 7-8 rounds. It's not worth it, and even then, only 1 of 2 TE's should be nabbed that early. Let the rest get handled at the end.
Post-Season
Since this is the last player listed, the games have already been summarized earlier. Strangely enough, Eric's best games came in the post-season, even though he lost them both. This cemented his place in ugly infamy, and he has had to sleep every night of this long off-season knowing that there was absolutely 0 consolation. Maybe there is better luck around the corner.
Well, there you have the summary. A little long, but I won't be offended if you only read your own section or a couple others. Within the next couple of days I will post a summary of this year's players, draft order, and my thought's before the draft. Remember, the draft will be a live draft on 28 August. If you can't be in front of a computer at that time, make sure you do the auto draft settings; if that time doesn't work for you, and you want to be a part of the live draft, send me an email and I'll see what I can do.
Imperator Militis (Patrick)
Personnel
I suppose I'll start with myself. In the draft, I picked up MJD with my first pick, Peyton Manning with my second, and Calvin Johnson with my third. MJD didn't pan out particularly well in the first few weeks; ultimately he would get 1300 yards rushing, 350 yards receiving and 7 touchdowns, good for nearly 200 points. Manning ended up pretty solid despite his INT total at the end of the year and was by far my best player. Calvin Johnson ended up being nothing more than trade bait, especially due to his slow start last year. I should have accepted the first trade offered (Goodrich offered Mike Williams (TB) and Michael Turner (ATL). As it turns out, that would have been an awesome trade. Instead I settled a few weeks later for Rashard Mendenhall (PIT) and Visanthe Shiancoe (MIN). The Mendenhall pickup was good, but not great, but I felt like I came out on top since Megatron continued his ups and downs. The rest of my draft was terrible: Knowshown Moreno (DEN) (Injured half the season), Ronnie Brown (MIA) was worthless, Jeremy Maclin (PHI) was decent, Percy Harvin (MIN) was not great, Joe Flacco (BAL) didn't get much time at QB since Manning was so solid, and the rest were just as forgettable. I drafted Dez Bryant late in the draft, and just when he was starting to get some solid production (Don't forget our league values punt and kickoff returns) he got injured. I wasted Joe Flacco on a trade for Randy Moss. Finally, the only decent waiver pickup I had all season was Danny Amendola (STL), and I sat on him too long before I began starting him.
Season
I started decently enough, 2-2, and then I went on a terrific five-game streak. This was the highlight of my season since it included an incredible thrashing of PapaKareGoods (Lewis) when only one of his players even broke double digits. The game ended 122-48. I had the thrilling tie game against Goodrich, where I won since I was the home team, immediately followed by a one point victory over the total-points leader, Kretchmer. I finished the season 9-4, which considering my so-so draft and little success through trades and the waiver-wires, was pretty decent.
Post-Season
Having finished in first place, I was included in the winners bracket. I got to face up against the number four overall, Pretty in Pink (Michelle). I was worried about the matchup, since Michelle was racking up decent point totals each week. My QB and RB's played well, but Michelle had DeSean Jackson (PHI) get 29 points during the first week and the Saints defense scored 22, putting her ahead by nearly 30. The second week wasn't much better as Knowshon Moreno (DEN) scored a goose egg, my kicker got -2, and MJD (JAC) managed a measly 6 points. Michelle won 215-181, leaving me out of the championship game. Kretchmer would end up beating me 222-180, leaving me in fourth place overall.
Pretty In Pink (Michelle)
Personnel
I'll say the same thing I've said every year in fantasy football: Michelle may ask my advice from time to time, but she manages and runs her own team on a weekly basis. She also cruises the waiver wires for pickups and pays attention to sports news. Despite being the only girl in the league she has been in the winner's bracket two seasons in a row.
Michelle's draft went very well. Her first four picks were: Drew Brees (NO), Miles Austin (DAL), DeSean Jackson (PHI), and LeSean McCoy (PHI). When you count Ahmad Bradshaw (NYG) that she picked up in the 9th round, she had 5 players score 170 points+. Her crowning achievement on the waivers was, of course, Michael Vick, although this pickup was limited because Drew Brees was having a great year as well. In all, Michelle had a solid draft, and picked up the single best waiver pickup of the year.
Season
Michelle started the season very well, cruising to an 8-2 start, and keeping in first place during most of that time. She continued the strange Lewis-Kryptonite from the year before; Lewis accounts for more than 50% of her losses during her fantasy football career, despite finishing in last and second-to-last place. She ended the season terribly, with Ahmad Bradshaw playing hurt and DeSean Jackson with concussion issues. She lost the last three games, ended 8-5, which was good enough for fourth place.
Post-Season
As was mentioned above, Michelle trounced me in the first round. A healthy DeSean Jackson, a killer Michael Vick, and the Saints killer defense all added up and put her into the championship game. The first round of the championship game was disappointing, with Michelle only scraping together 75 points; the second round of the championship game was a brutal, terrible, nasty slaughter. Michelle's problem was that all of her good players were on championship contenders who had cemented their place in the standings; she had to play Sam Bradford and Marion Barber, of all people. She ended that week with just 37 points and cleaned her makeup off with her own tears.
One Man Wolfpack (Colby)
Personnel
Colby started the season with the 9th pick, and his draft choices reflect it. His first pick was Andre Johnson (HOU), who ended up not even being the leading WR, Shonn Green (NYJ), a pick that deserves no comment, Cedric Benson (CHI), Matt Schaub (HOU), Jermichael Finley (GB) who got injured early, Pierre Garcon (IND) who had a terrible year... you get the point. Not a single name jumps out at you as a this-guy-will-win-games type. His only decent waiver pickup was Chris Ivory (NO) who promptly hurt his hamstring.
Season
Colby started the season as terrible as his draft would suggest. After 7 games he was 2-5, scoring low, and not looking to make it into the winners bracket. Finally, Mike Wallace (PIT) turned on the jets, and Colby started to pick up. He finished the season with four wins, going from 4-5 to 8-5 and securing a spot in the winners bracket.
Colby's situation needs more evaluation. His draft was not good, he was not given a high draft pick (9th), his waiver pickups were questionable. How did he go from a slow start, to a fast finish, to an ultimate victory in the league? Colby always managed to put together the best team available to him each week. Even though he had limited choices, he managed to insert the best TE, defense, kicker, second WR and RB, etc. He averaged 5 players in the double digits each week during his wild finale, and never depended solely on one player. Let this be a lesson that it doesn't take a high draft pick or a standout waiver pickup to win fantasy football
Post-Season
Colby was a sure-loss in the making. He was playing against Kretchmer, who was the total points champion in the league. Colby was the lowest scoring player in the winners bracket. Kretchmer's team had a meltdown in the first week, with Dwayne Bowe getting shut out, Antonio Gates playing injured, the Bears defense giving up 37 points, and his kicker not even getting a PAT. Colby's team didn't fare much better, with Chris Ivory getting hurt early in the game. Although Kretchmer's team revived a bit for the second round, Colby put together another outstanding collection, with 6 of his players scoring in double digits. Goliath was conquered.
As has been documented, Michelle's team was ahead by 8 points going into the final week of fantasy football, and the second round of the championship game. Then the meltdown ensued, but let's not overlook the fact that Colby, yet again, had 6 players score in double figures. Colby's success this last year was pure fantasy football at its best.
Team Pepelapue (Kretchmer)
With Kretchmer out of the league this year, I won't dwell too long on his team. Just let it be known that he had a solid draft, and he scored big time on the emergence of Dwayne Bowe and the revival of Matt Forte. Kretchmer's downfall was a shaky bench, which made itself obvious at the end of the season. A good draft can only take you so far, but eventually you have to have the second string guys that can come in and win a couple of games
Team Goodrich (Justin Goodrich)
Personnel
Goodrich had a draft full of hindsight *ouches*. For instance, drafting Randy Moss in the second round. Or Beanie Wells (ARI) in the third round. Or drafting Steve Smith (CAR) in the fourth round. You get the point. You'll notice lacking in the first four rounds was a decent QB; Goodrich solved this by unloading Randy Moss on me and getting Joe Flacco (BAL) in return. While Flacco was not great by any means, he was a solid 15 point QB each week, which was better than Chad Henne (MIA) was producing. Where Goodrich really made his money last year was his pickup of Peyton Hillis. Who knew he would be worth over 200 points? And of course, it needs to be pointed out that he nearly traded away two of his three most valuable assets to me at the beginning of the year: Mike Williams (TB) and Michael Turner (ATL). It was only my own stupidity that kept that from coming to fruition.
Season
Where you consistently see solid fantasy football players do well is at the end of seasons. At the beginning of the season even the ESPN auto-ranking program can carry you to several wins. However, near the end of seasons is when the pickups, trades, and drops start to show their foresight. In the case of Goodrich, after a 3-4 start, he started making his playoff push. He won 4 in a row and looked destined for the coveted winners bracket. The wheels came off afterwards, however. Weeks 12 and 13 looked solid, but Goodrich was narrowly beat out. In Week 12, Peyton Hillis cruised to 38 points, but none of the peripheral positions (D, TE, K, etc) could produce a double digit score. In Week 13, Peyton Hillis broke down and couldn't carry the team anymore. The final game was a big one, with the winner between Goodrich and Colby leading them to the winner's bracket; Colby ended up winning by two points, sending Goodrich to the consolation bracket.
Post-Season
With Goodrich begins the consolation ladder, and for the sake of time, I will not include many details. Suffice it to say that Goodrich came out as the winner of a tie, 183-183 against Alex, sending Goodrich to the consolation championship game. He managed to do it with Kyle Orton netting him -2 points for one game and only scoring 59 points for an entire round. For the final game of the consolation championship game, Goodrich was pitted against Mcleary. Goodrich finally put together a solid game in Week 17, with all but one of his players reaching double digits; he also gambled on Tim Tebow who netted him 25 points. Cudos, my friend.
Air Raid (Andrew Mcleary)
Personnel
Big Mac started the draft with a solid one-two RB punch: Adrian Peterson (MIN) and Rashard Mendenhall (PIT). The wheels came off a bit with Brandon Marshall (MIA) and C.J. Spiller (BUF). Finally, a death-knell to Big Mac's draft, came Brett Favre (MIN) in the fifth round. I'm not sure if Air Raid ever really recovered from that one. Mcleary picked up Jason Witten (DAL) early, and the TE acquisition paid off: Witten was a consistent producer. Big Mac picked up Mike Tolbert (SD) early in the season, and although he did not play him as often as he should have, Tolbert was a good pickup. Soon after, Big Mac pulled the trigger on a big trade; He gave Mendenhall to Alex in exchange for Steven Jackson (STL). Although it was largely a wash, Big Mac came out slightly on top. Finally, on 22 Oct 2010, Andrew Mcleary sealed his fate: he picked up the sour and stink that is... Jay Cutler. Despite whatever points Jay Cutler may bring in the QB position, he will always sink the rest of your team. Lewis did it two years ago, Big Mac did it last year, and it's just a question of when someone will pick him up this year.
Season
Big Mac started the season to a dismal 1-5. This was mostly the showing of a difficult draft: While AP consistently produced, along with Mendenhall (and later Jackson), the rest of the draft panned out so poorly that there wasn't much hope. But as I've been saying all along, the true fantasy football players start to show near the end of the season. Big Mac made the trades, watched the match ups, and clawed his way to a 7-6 finish. While it was not good enough to make the winners bracket, it was good enough to proof Big Mac has the heart of a champion and could sleep easy at night knowing, without a doubt, that he was a true man.
Post-Season
Big Mac played Lewis for the middle-of-the-pack, the 7 seed versus the 8 seed. Big Mac caught a lucky break with the Dolphins defense netting him 22 points. Jason Witten sealed the win with 18 coming from the TE spot. Big Mac put Lewis away for good in the second round, sending him to the consolation championship game against Goodrich. Air Raid put up a good fight in the final game, but ultimately was betrayed by his team: the final round included 3 0's, a negative score, and only 10 combined points from 3 RB's. Still, Big Mac proved that anything is possible, even from a terrible start.
Team Stonewall (Alex Goodrum)
Personnel
Alex had a great draft, although it wasn't quite so obvious on draft day. He started with Steven Jackson (STL), Tom Brady (NE), and Jamaal Charles (KC). He reached for a TE far too early, picking up Tony Gonzalez (ATL) in the fourth round. Where Alex lucked out was getting Arian Foster (HOU) in the 8th round, LT (NYJ) a few rounds later, and getting Vincent Jackson (SD) with his final draft pick. Arian Foster, of course, ending up being the #1 RB last year, LT had a revival, and Vincent Jackson produced solidly once he was able to play in the league again. Brady threw for 34 TD's and only 4 INT's. Noticeably missing from the draft was a solid WR, and Alex wasn't able to pick one up until late in the season, trading Rashard Mendenhall (PIT) to me for Calvin Johnson (DET).
Season
Alex is always one of the leading total points teams, and yet he never seems to make the winners cut. This season was no different: Alex was the 2nd highest scoring team, 200 full points ahead of third place, and yet he still ended the season in 7th place. How is this possible? Alex suffers from feast vs famine syndrome. He recorded games of 126, 122, 113, 110, 124, 104, and 124 points. On the other hand, he recorded games of 68, 81, 88, 86, and 83. While it's hard to put a finger on the exact cause of the problem, it seems as though Alex might over think his match ups: his second and third RB/WR's always seem to be the wrong one (Alex has the highest scoring bench, easily), his TE's never produce, and his defenses never put up double digits. Alex was never able to string along a winning streak until the end; even then, it was three games and promptly followed with a loss to end the season.
Post-Season
Alex started the post-season as the sixth seed, giving him a good shot at the consolation bracket's championship game. As was mentioned above, this ended up being a close, competitive game (As you would expect from the 5 and 6 seed). He eventually lost to Goodrich, which was technically a tie, but the tie goes to the home team. This crushing defeat sent him out of the consolation bracket's championship game. Alex promptly recovered, put together a killer lineup, and destroyed Nate two weeks in a row. If Alex had somehow made his way into the winner's bracket, his Week 16-17 total of 236 would have won him the title; instead, he wasn't able to play consistently during the regular season, falling into 7th place.
Disco Inferno (Nate Kartchner)
Personnel
I gave Nate a pretty good score on draft day last year for a reason: Not many risky moves and solid picks. Frank Gore (SF) was a good starter, Tony Romo (DAL) seemed like a good one, Larry Fitzgerald (ARI) and Roddy White (ATL) were solid starters. After this, the remaining picks didn't get much praise, but it turns out Darren Mcfadden in the 13th round was a huge steal, since he exceeded the 200 point mark. Nate even made a great mid-season pickup in LaGarrette Blount. Although there were no trades for Nate and little waiver-wire activity, Nate had all the personnel to make a deep fantasy football run.
Season
If he had great personnel, then why did he end up in 8th place? For starters, nobody could have predicted Romo playing terrible in the first six games and then being out for the season. Nate never recovered from this, moving on to different QB's the rest of the season. Shaun Hill (DET), Mark Sanchez (NYJ), Chad Henne (MIA), and even David Garrard (JAC) were tossed around. Also, Nate pulled some rookie mistakes: Not changing defenses based on opponent, keeping Brent Celek as TE even though Vick doesn't know what a check-down is, never knowing quite which RB/WR to put in, etc. It all adds up to a never-above-.500-season. And then, to make matters worse, throw in a three game losing streak to finish things off; Nate ended the regular season at 4-8.
Post-Season
While things never panned out in the regular season, the post-season was different for Nate. Mcfadden decided to show he could run, and broke out for 42 points. Also, in week 15, all of Nate's team, except one, decided to score more than 15 points. Nate trounced Eric, making sure the bottom-of-the-bucket honors would not be his on his inaugural season. Fortunate would not continue, and, as has been noted above, Alex did the trouncing in the final game.
Dallas PapaKareGoods (Lewis and Kara Goodrum)
Personnel
Lewis has complained about injuries, and at least for this last year, he is correct. Deangello Williams (CAR), his second pick? Ryan Grant (GB), his third pick? Dallas Clark (IND), his fourth pick? Austin Collie (IND), his sixth pick? Even the players that didn't get injured ended up being worthless. His backup QB, potentially a good trade chip? Oh, Kevin Kolb (PHI), who didn't get much playing time behind Vick. If it weren't for Aaron Rodgers and his 275+ points, Lewis' team would have been a complete disaster.
Although it should be noted that a little research could have produced enough waiver-claims to fill out his team, it should also be noted that Lewis tried. Lewis had the most acquisitions in the league last year (40), making him one of the most active players. Lewis just couldn't seem to catch a break.
Season
Lewis at one point lost 8 in a row. 8. That's terrible. To his everlasting credit, he continued his tradition of taking out revenge on Michelle's teams. 50% of his wins came against Michelle. Granted, it was only 2 of 4 wins, but it's significant because Lewis only won 2 games the year before, and both of them were against Michelle. Will that continue into this year? It should be noted that despite this dismal performance, Lewis was not last place. That honor goes to another Goodrum, Eric.
Post-Season
Lewis got bounced into the Loser's game by losing to Big Mac in the first playoff game. This meant that another loss would result in 2 straight years of fantasy football shame. Ultimately, Lewis stopped the hemorrhaging, and beat Eric by a razor-thin margin of 12 points. While this might not seem like much to cheer for, few people know what was on the line in this game.
Team Goodrum (Eric Goodrum)
Personnel
Last and most definitely least, we come to Eric. Eric upset me something terrible on draft day: Ray Rice (BAL) was listed as the 5th best player. Eric had the third pick and I had the fourth. I thought, for sure, that I would be able to pick up Ray Rice with my pick. I was predicting that he would have a Brian Westbrook style breakout year. When Eric picked him up ahead of me, I was dumbfounded, angry, and in a vengeful spirit. But we'll let bygones be bygones, especially since Rice didn't produce like I expected. Other than Rice and Phillip Rivers (SD), Eric had a dismal draft. He gambled on Ryan Matthews (SD), picked Joseph Addai (IND) in the fourth round despite questions about his starter status, nabbed Wes Welker (NE) in the fifth despite his recent surgery, got a kicker in the 6th round, and then the devastating finale: he drafted Jay Cutler. People, do not think this Jay Cutler thing is a coincidence. Lewis had him two years ago when he sunk that team, Eric had him last year from the get-go and Cutler managed to sink this team. Despite activity on the waiver-wire and a laughable trade attempt (MJD for Ryan Matthews?), Eric could never rinse the stink. He was sunk.
Season
While the honors of the longest losing streak goes to Lewis, the most losses total goes to Eric. Phillip Rivers and Ray Rice always produced, but none of the remaining players, be it WR, RB, TE, D, or even K, could score in the double digits more than once (I think Wes Welker might have, late in the season). The highlight of Eric's season was... was... Ok, maybe there wasn't a highlight. The man did not score over 100 points once in the season. 66% of his wins came against the #9 player in the league. Moral of the story: on draft day, conventional wisdom is conventional wisdom because it's been tested. Don't pick up a defense, TE, K, or a rookie in the first 7-8 rounds. It's not worth it, and even then, only 1 of 2 TE's should be nabbed that early. Let the rest get handled at the end.
Post-Season
Since this is the last player listed, the games have already been summarized earlier. Strangely enough, Eric's best games came in the post-season, even though he lost them both. This cemented his place in ugly infamy, and he has had to sleep every night of this long off-season knowing that there was absolutely 0 consolation. Maybe there is better luck around the corner.
Well, there you have the summary. A little long, but I won't be offended if you only read your own section or a couple others. Within the next couple of days I will post a summary of this year's players, draft order, and my thought's before the draft. Remember, the draft will be a live draft on 28 August. If you can't be in front of a computer at that time, make sure you do the auto draft settings; if that time doesn't work for you, and you want to be a part of the live draft, send me an email and I'll see what I can do.
Wednesday, August 10, 2011
Draft Pick Order
Although the order for draft picks hasn't been finalized, the only for sure thing is that Colby has the #1 pick, the prize for winning last year. Despite several attempts by one unnamed person (Lewis), there isn't much of a correlation between draft pick and final standings, but he makes a valid point that it's not particularly fair to set the order based on last year's standings. So, Colby will have the first pick, everyone else will be randomized
Sunday, August 7, 2011
Draft pick trading
I've reworked the draft pick trading for this year, so hopefully it will work better. Every team drafts until their starters and bench are full (16 picks). So, if I traded my first round pick for say, a third round pick and a fifth round pick, it is implied that I dropped my 16th round pick, since it will only take me 15 rounds to fill my team. Whoever picked up the first round pick I would have traded will have to add their last player from the waivers, since the draft is only 16 rounds and their team will not be filled by the end of the draft. Does that make sense? Let me know if you have any questions. Hopefully this will encourage some draft trading. FYI - if someone wants to initiate a trade during the draft, I can pause the draft until they figure it out.
Also, by popular request, I have changed the number of QB's that can be on one team at any time. It's 2, down from 3.
Also, by popular request, I have changed the number of QB's that can be on one team at any time. It's 2, down from 3.
Hinckley's House is Back
This is just a preliminary start to the Fantasy season coming up. So far, these are the players in the league:
1. Patrick Hinckley
2. Michelle Hinckley
3. Alex Goodrum
4. Lewis Goodrum
5. Eric Goodrum
6. Brannon Kilgo
7. Brandt Rast
8. Colby Nelson
9. Andew Mcleary
10. Nate Kartchner
11. Justin Goodrich
12. ? - Still waiting on answer, could be one of three different people
Draft is scheduled to be Sunday, August 29 at 10:00 PM EST (9 for those in Texas and 8 for those in Utah/Idaho). This isn't set in stone, and can change on request.
Right now everyone should just be adjusting their team names, logos, etc. And, of course, should be researching their draft. Competition is fierce for last place: who will it be this year, Lewis or Eric? Or will a unknown challenger try to take their reputation for futility?
Still working on draft order. The only thing set in stone is the Colby has the first pick since he was the champion last year. Here are the results from last year:
There have been requests to make draft order this year in order of finishing last year, which would make Colby first, Michelle second, myself third (Kretchmer is out this year), and so on. Let me know what you think of this. For sure, though, we will not do like professional sports and reward mediocrity with high draft picks (AKA we are no doing a draft in reverse order of standings).
That's all we've got so far. I'll be throwing in my usual prior-year analysis and intro for each player for those who might be new, but that will be in a week or two. Good luck studying!
1. Patrick Hinckley
2. Michelle Hinckley
3. Alex Goodrum
4. Lewis Goodrum
5. Eric Goodrum
6. Brannon Kilgo
7. Brandt Rast
8. Colby Nelson
9. Andew Mcleary
10. Nate Kartchner
11. Justin Goodrich
12. ? - Still waiting on answer, could be one of three different people
Draft is scheduled to be Sunday, August 29 at 10:00 PM EST (9 for those in Texas and 8 for those in Utah/Idaho). This isn't set in stone, and can change on request.
Right now everyone should just be adjusting their team names, logos, etc. And, of course, should be researching their draft. Competition is fierce for last place: who will it be this year, Lewis or Eric? Or will a unknown challenger try to take their reputation for futility?
Still working on draft order. The only thing set in stone is the Colby has the first pick since he was the champion last year. Here are the results from last year:
| FINAL LEAGUE STANDINGS | 2010 REGULAR SEASON | ||||||||
| RANK | TEAM | OWNER(S) | REC | PF | PA | PF/G | PA/G | DIFF | |
| 1 | One Man Wolfpack | Colby Nelson | 8-5 | 1096 | 1101 | 84.3 | 84.7 | -0.4 | |
| 2 | Pretty IN Pink | Michelle Hinckley | 8-5 | 1268 | 1181 | 97.5 | 90.8 | +6.7 | |
| 3 | Team Pepelapue | andrew kretchmer | 8-5 | 1400 | 1158 | 107.7 | 89.1 | +18.6 | |
| 4 | Imperator Militis | patrick hinckley | 9-4 | 1217 | 1124 | 93.6 | 86.5 | +7.2 | |
| 5 | Team Goodrich | Justin Goodrich | 7-6 | 1192 | 1225 | 91.7 | 94.2 | -2.5 | |
| 6 | Air Raid | Andrew McCleary | 7-6 | 1176 | 1275 | 90.5 | 98.1 | -7.6 | |
| 7 | Team Stonewall | Alex Goodrum | 7-6 | 1328 | 1120 | 102.2 | 86.2 | +16 | |
| 8 | Disco Inferno | Nate Kartchner | 4-9 | 1159 | 1273 | 89.2 | 97.9 | -8.8 | |
| 9 | Dallas PapaKareGoods | Lewis Goodrum, Kara Goodrum | 4-9 | 1048 | 1302 | 80.6 | 100.2 | -19.5 | |
| 10 | Team goodrum | eric goodrum | 3-10 | 995 | 1120 | 76.5 | 86.2 | -9.6 | |
There have been requests to make draft order this year in order of finishing last year, which would make Colby first, Michelle second, myself third (Kretchmer is out this year), and so on. Let me know what you think of this. For sure, though, we will not do like professional sports and reward mediocrity with high draft picks (AKA we are no doing a draft in reverse order of standings).
That's all we've got so far. I'll be throwing in my usual prior-year analysis and intro for each player for those who might be new, but that will be in a week or two. Good luck studying!
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